New Tradesports rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama slightly gains at Hillary's expense. Biden back down.

Thompson down a fair amount due to crappy fundraising numbers. Romney, McCain, and Gingrich gain. Lower tier candidates drop. There are now only 6 Republicans above 0.7.


Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 37.0
Edwards 6.2
Gore 4.8
Richardson 2.8
Biden 0.8
Clark 0.7

Republicans
Giuliani 39.7
Thompson 28.0
Romney 18.8
McCain 6.3
Gingrich 3.5
Paul 3.0
Huckabee 0.7
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.5
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Cheney 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards is the highest he's been in a while. More people seem to be finally realizing that Gore isn't going to run.

Giuliani down. Thompson is up as his campaign tanks; maybe the other Republicans are tanking faster? Huckabee was once double digit; he's doing horribly.

Democrats
Clinton 47.9
Obama 36.4
Edwards 6.7
Gore 4.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.8

Republicans
Giuliani 37.1
Thompson 28.0
Romney 18.4
McCain 6.1
Gingrich 3.3
Paul 3.2
Hagel 0.9
Rice 0.8
Huckabee 0.5
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Cheney 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[© tweed]

I think Gore is worth a bid at that price (and to a lesser degree, Clinton) while shorting Obama and Edwards is smart.

Personally, I think Edwards is highly undervalued at 6.  If he does as well in Iowa as polls currently suggest he will, his option will spike considerably.

even if he wins Iowa (very possible), what is he going to do after that?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Little change on the Democratic side.

Thompson gains at Giuliani and Romney's expenses. McCain is down, now not so far ahead of Paul and Gingrich.


Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 36.0
Edwards 6.7
Gore 4.5
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.8

Republicans
Giuliani 35.7
Thompson 32.9
Romney 16.8
McCain 4.8
Gingrich 3.3
Paul 3.3
Hagel 0.9
Rice 0.8
Huckabee 0.5
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Cheney 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[King]

At 6.7 Edwards is a good deal, especially considering he's leading in Iowa.

[Eraserhead]

At 6.7 Edwards is a good deal, especially considering he's leading in Iowa.

[SPC]

I think Gore is worth a bid at that price (and to a lesser degree, Clinton) while shorting Obama and Edwards is smart.

Personally, I think Edwards is highly undervalued at 6.  If he does as well in Iowa as polls currently suggest he will, his option will spike considerably.

even if he wins Iowa (very possible), what is he going to do after that?

Hope for a win in South Carolina and then drop out when it doesn't happen.

[© tweed]

he's running a distant third in SC because he is getting no black voters whatsoever.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton down.  Edwards is the highest in a while. Gore is the lowest in a while; no longer leading Richardson by much. Biden up.

Large Romney surge. McCain went up as I was typing this.


Democrats
Clinton 47.2
Obama 36.4
Edwards 6.9
Gore 4.1
Richardson 2.8
Biden 1.3
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.8
Thompson 32.7
Romney 20.0
McCain 5.6
Gingrich 3.1
Paul 3.1
Hagel 0.9
Rice 0.8
Huckabee 0.6
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Cheney 0.2
J. Bush 0.1

[King]

Edwards wasn't going to win SC before Iowa last year either.  Iowa is part of a domino effect of undecided voters who make up their minds based on who is winning at the time.  Dean and Clark had a lot of support before Kerry and Edwards showed up hot on the scene.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards continues going up.  Gore recovers a bit.

Giuliani gains. Romney is down. McCain inches up.


Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 35.7
Edwards 7.1
Gore 4.7
Richardson 3.0
Biden 1.3
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 37.8
Thompson 32.4
Romney 18.0
McCain 6.2
Paul 3.2
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
Huckabee 0.6
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Cheney 0.2
J. Bush 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Iowa markets

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden down, still way overvalued.

Thompson takes a significant hit. McCain and Romney also slide a bit, as do many of the minor candidates. Giuliani's small gain doesn't make up for these losses. Only 9 Republicans are  > 0.1

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 36.0
Edwards 7.1
Gore 4.7
Richardson 2.7
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 38.8
Thompson 30.0
Romney 17.3
McCain 5.9
Paul 3.2
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
Huckabee 0.6
Bloomberg 0.1
Brownback 0.1
Cheney 0.1
J. Bush 0.1
Tancredo 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton-Obama gap widens. Gore down.

Giuliani drops. Thompson and Romney have slight gains. Long shots gain.

Democrats
Clinton 49.1
Obama 35.0
Edwards 7.2
Gore 4.2
Richardson 2.9
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.1
Thompson 30.8
Romney 17.3
McCain 6.2
Gingrich 3.2
Paul 3.1
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
Cheney 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Powell 0.1

[True Democrat]

Why is Rice being traded at all, let alone above a declared candidate like Huckabee?

[SPC]

Why is Rice being traded at all, let alone above a declared candidate like Huckabee?

People who sold Rice at a higher price buying to cover.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton breaks 50% for the first time in a while.  Gore up. No real corresponding drops.

Giuliani drops. Romney gains. Longshots drop.

Democrats
Clinton 50.3
Obama 34.5
Edwards 7.1
Gore 4.9
Richardson 3.1
Biden 1.1
Clark 0.9
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.0
Thompson 30.8
Romney 18.6
McCain 6.4
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 3.0
Rice 1.0
Hagel 0.8
Huckabee 0.7
J. Bush 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Cheney 0.1
Powell 0.1

[12th Doctor]

Clinton breaks 50% for the first time in a while.  Gore up. No real corresponding drops.

Giuliani drops. Romney gains. Longshots drop.

Democrats
Clinton 50.3
Obama 34.5
Edwards 7.1
Gore 4.9
Richardson 3.1
Biden 1.1
Clark 0.9
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.0
Thompson 30.8
Romney 18.6
McCain 6.4
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 3.0
Rice 1.0
Hagel 0.8
Huckabee 0.7
J. Bush 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Cheney 0.1
Powell 0.1

I really don't understand all this Romney hype.  Inspite of the fact that he has attracted so much press, he hasn't seen much of a bump in the polls.  I don't even really understand why he is in the top tier, other than the press says he is.

[© tweed]

I really don't understand all this Romney hype.  Inspite of the fact that he has attracted so much press, he hasn't seen much of a bump in the polls.  I don't even really understand why he is in the top tier, other than the press says he is.

he's leading in most polls out of Iowa and NH...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I really don't understand all this Romney hype.  Inspite of the fact that he has attracted so much press, he hasn't seen much of a bump in the polls.  I don't even really understand why he is in the top tier, other than the press says he is.

he's leading in most polls out of Iowa and NH...

Exactly.  I expect him to do well and win both, which should send the Romney contract up over 30 to somewhere around 40.

I'm expecting Richardson to continue to improve his numbers in NH/Iowa, which should drive the value of his contract higher.  I've short covered my Gore to Announce contract (it was tying up a huge amount of cash for a very modest payout) and invested some in Richardson at 2.9.

And I'm trying to pick up more of Dem to win NH now that Shaheen is even more likely to run, which is inexplicably valued at a mere 40%.

[12th Doctor]

I really don't understand all this Romney hype.  Inspite of the fact that he has attracted so much press, he hasn't seen much of a bump in the polls.  I don't even really understand why he is in the top tier, other than the press says he is.

he's leading in most polls out of Iowa and NH...

With all the primaries moved up, they will mean far far less than in years past, plus, he has been pratically living there, unlike the other candidates.

[poughies]

Actually, I would think that with the primaries moving up it gives less time for the candidates to recover from an early fall.... hell Clinton lost the first primary and caucus (granted Iowa was a giveme for Harkin)... it was only after he was able to spin his 2nd place finish that he was able to moveup...

Oh btw, the super primaries are two weeks from new hampshire!

And three weeks from Iowa!

So there is plenty of time if u are of the belief that moving everything up takes away significance...

If the polls in those states didn't mean anything, then why did Giuliani pull out of ames?

[Verily]

I really don't understand all this Romney hype.  Inspite of the fact that he has attracted so much press, he hasn't seen much of a bump in the polls.  I don't even really understand why he is in the top tier, other than the press says he is.

he's leading in most polls out of Iowa and NH...

With all the primaries moved up, they will mean far far less than in years past, plus, he has been pratically living there, unlike the other candidates.

The 2004 Democratic primaries were slightly tainted by the media frenzy over the "Dean scream", but they provide a good illustratin of how much sheer momentum the winner of the Iowa primary builds up. If Romney wins Iowa, Nevada should be a breeze for him (Mormon population turns out substantially, plus the usual momentum and supporters), and then he comes into New Hampshire ahead in the polls and having both previous states. First place in all three of the first states and Romney is clearly going to be one of the top two, if not the winner, even though he's unlikely to do well in South Carolina.

[poughies]

I really don't understand all this Romney hype.  Inspite of the fact that he has attracted so much press, he hasn't seen much of a bump in the polls.  I don't even really understand why he is in the top tier, other than the press says he is.

he's leading in most polls out of Iowa and NH...

With all the primaries moved up, they will mean far far less than in years past, plus, he has been pratically living there, unlike the other candidates.

The 2004 Democratic primaries were slightly tainted by the media frenzy over the "Dean scream", but they provide a good illustratin of how much sheer momentum the winner of the Iowa primary builds up. If Romney wins Iowa, Nevada should be a breeze for him (Mormon population turns out substantially, plus the usual momentum and supporters), and then he comes into New Hampshire ahead in the polls and having both previous states. First place in all three of the first states and Romney is clearly going to be one of the top two, if not the winner, even though he's unlikely to do well in South Carolina.

Edwards won South Carolina..... it proved to be inconsequential... granted more importance seems placed on it this year.

[Mr. Morden]

Edwards won South Carolina..... it proved to be inconsequential... granted more importance seems placed on it this year.

It was inconsequential because it was held the same day as 6 other primaries, of which Kerry won 5!