New Tradesports rankings

[TomC]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

[Reignman]

Obama's in high 50s and Hillary's in low 40s on intrade now.

[Eraserhead]

Obama's in high 50s and Hillary's in low 40s on intrade now.

Clinton lost the spin war. That has to be a first.

[Reignman]

Hahaha.

...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's in high 50s and Hillary's in low 40s on intrade now.

Clinton lost the spin war. That has to be a first.

It doesn't help that she admitted to donating $5 mil the day after, blunting whatever momentum she might have had.

[Verily]

I still don't understand how a brokered convention is supposed to happen, unless "the nominee is decided by the superdelegates" counts as a brokered convention.  But if a brokered convention means that the nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot, it seems virtually impossible, since (presumably) every delegate at the convention (pledged or unpledged) will vote for either Clinton or Obama, one of them has to win a majority.....unless they actually think that the 25 or so Edwards delegates are going to have to break the deadlock.

They may be considering that such close numbers mean, at the urging of superdelegates and other party leaders, either Clinton or Obama, or perhaps both, will step aside for a compromise candidate endorsed by the standing-aside candidate's delegates and most of the superdelegates. (Say, for example, the two are tied, but Obama stands aside in favor of Al Gore, and the superdelegates flock from Clinton to Gore. Gore's not a likely choice for this at all, but he's a good example.)

According to Intrade a brokered convention is defined as follows.

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I would be very surprised if the unpledged superdelegates allowed it to go to multiple ballots. I would think that they would in effect broker the outcome before the first ballot. In that case there would not be a "brokered" convention.

I didn't say anything about a bet for the convention being brokered; I don't expect it. I do agree that such brokering would happen before balloting, probably before the convention.

[J. J.]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

Another major problem for Obama are the Superdelegates, which by and large support the establishment candidate Clinton.

Oh, and if Democrats think they can get away with having a down-to-the-wire race without including Florida and Michigan's opinions in any way, they're nuts.  They probably wouldn't have won Florida anyway, but they shouldn't be trying to give McCain any more of an edge in Michigan than he might already have, lest they risk losing the state.

[J. J.]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

Another major problem for Obama are the Superdelegates, which by and large support the establishment candidate Clinton.

Oh, and if Democrats think they can get away with having a down-to-the-wire race without including Florida and Michigan's opinions in any way, they're nuts.  They probably wouldn't have won Florida anyway, but they shouldn't be trying to give McCain any more of an edge in Michigan than he might already have, lest they risk losing the state.

Both FL and MI might have caucuses, but there is at least an argument for seating the elected delegates.  In all honesty, had Obama been in the Senate since 1998, or was in his second term as Governor and had a good record there, he'd be the nominee by now.

[Flying Dog]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

Another major problem for Obama are the Superdelegates, which by and large support the establishment candidate Clinton.

Oh, and if Democrats think they can get away with having a down-to-the-wire race without including Florida and Michigan's opinions in any way, they're nuts.  They probably wouldn't have won Florida anyway, but they shouldn't be trying to give McCain any more of an edge in Michigan than he might already have, lest they risk losing the state.

There are still a lot of superdelegates out there that haven't endoresed either side. If Obama is leading by elected delegates by the end, then some 200-300 superdelgates will throw their support behind him. No way that the supers overrule the elected delegates. Not unless the Democratic party wants a open revolt on their hands.

[J. J.]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.

Yeah, if you're still rooting for Clinton in a week, and have the money to spare, you should send it to her.

What possibly makes you think I'm "rooting" for Clinton.  I think, at this point, she's going to win the nomination. 

Those later primaries favor her and she's staying in.  The time where Obama could have knocked her out has passed.

Another major problem for Obama are the Superdelegates, which by and large support the establishment candidate Clinton.

Oh, and if Democrats think they can get away with having a down-to-the-wire race without including Florida and Michigan's opinions in any way, they're nuts.  They probably wouldn't have won Florida anyway, but they shouldn't be trying to give McCain any more of an edge in Michigan than he might already have, lest they risk losing the state.

There are still a lot of superdelegates out there that haven't endoresed either side. If Obama is leading by elected delegates by the end, then some 200-300 superdelgates will throw their support behind him. No way that the supers overrule the elected delegates. Not unless the Democratic party wants a open revolt on their hands.

He has to win in the field first.  I'm betting he won't, this time.

[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Gore, as Intraders ponder the "Verily scenario":

Dem. nomination:

Obama 56.0
Clinton 43.0
Gore 3.5

winning individual:

McCain 36.0
Obama 34.1
Clinton 27.8
Gore 2.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.5

[Reignman]

McCain's only at 36 now? I guess the GOP really is divided.

[Verily]

Big surge for Gore, as Intraders ponder the "Verily scenario":

Dem. nomination:

Obama 56.0
Clinton 43.0
Gore 3.5

winning individual:

McCain 36.0
Obama 34.1
Clinton 27.8
Gore 2.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.5

Nice to know that my tips move markets

Even if it were to happen, I don't expect that Gore would be the choice. But perhaps.

[Aizen]

Al Gore has stepped onto the stage once again

[they don't love you like i love you]

Big surge for Gore, as Intraders ponder the "Verily scenario":

Dem. nomination:

Obama 56.0
Clinton 43.0
Gore 3.5

winning individual:

McCain 36.0
Obama 34.1
Clinton 27.8
Gore 2.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.5

Nice to know that my tips move markets

Even if it were to happen, I don't expect that Gore would be the choice. But perhaps.

Who else? Edwards? (Actually he would be a strong possibility especially if the plan is put into motion by Obama to create an Edwards/Obama ticket.)

[Verily]

Big surge for Gore, as Intraders ponder the "Verily scenario":

Dem. nomination:

Obama 56.0
Clinton 43.0
Gore 3.5

winning individual:

McCain 36.0
Obama 34.1
Clinton 27.8
Gore 2.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.5

Nice to know that my tips move markets

Even if it were to happen, I don't expect that Gore would be the choice. But perhaps.

Who else? Edwards? (Actually he would be a strong possibility especially if the plan is put into motion by Obama to create an Edwards/Obama ticket.)

I have no idea, actually. Which is part of why I am not sold on the idea yet. Gore would be the obvious choice were he also not obviously undesirous of reentering politics.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Well if it happens and they decide to give the nomination to some sort of "elder statesman" who actually wants to be president, looks like Walter's dream of a Chris Dodd candidacy will come true after all.

[Angel of Death]

Obama 56.0
Clinton 43.0

This thing is too overreactive. Neither of them should be above 51, 52 tops.

[Tender Branson]

What exactly are the odds that Hillary cries again on March 3 ?

[Verily]

What exactly are the odds that Hillary cries again on March 3 ?

100%

[© tweed]

winning individual

Obama 36.5
McCain 36.1
Clinton 26.5
Gore 1.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.4
Romney 0.3
Paul 0.3
Giuliani 0.2
Edwards 0.1
Thompson 0.1

[J. J.]

Buy Clinton.

[MarkWarner08]

Buy Clinton.

Agreed. She's definitely undervalued at this point.

[J. J.]

Buy Clinton.

Agreed. She's definitely undervalued at this point.

By 4/1, you'll be able to make a 10 point profit.