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Author Topic: New Tradesports rankings  (Read 116976 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1550 on: February 19, 2008, 11:44:23 pm »
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Obama surge, of course.  hit a record high of 82 a little while ago.


Obama 78.5
Clinton 21.8
Gore 1.3
Edwards 0.2


McCain 95.5
Giuliani 1.3
Paul 1.2
Huckabee 0.9
Romney 0.6
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.2
Thompson 0.2
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« Reply #1551 on: February 19, 2008, 11:45:39 pm »
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LOL, Giuliani higher than Huckabee and Paul.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1552 on: February 19, 2008, 11:45:54 pm »
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also, Obama has crossed 50 in winning individual.  Clinton down to 12.
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« Reply #1553 on: February 19, 2008, 11:46:36 pm »
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LOL, Giuliani higher than Huckabee and Paul.

the Rudy stock went a bit batsh**t earlier, with somebody buying out all the offers to 2.0.  the current bid/ask split is 1.3/14.7.
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« Reply #1554 on: February 19, 2008, 11:48:30 pm »
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also, Obama has crossed 50 in winning individual.  Clinton down to 12.
Hahahahahahahaha......oh my......Cheesy
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« Reply #1555 on: February 20, 2008, 12:20:33 am »
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I tried selling off all my Clinton this afternoon, plus short another ten.

I got rid of all the Clinton at 28.3, but I was only able to short three more.

It should be safe to say that Clinton is done at this point.  I'd short her even more at this point—I wouldn't go TOO wild, since there's still a chance she could pull it out (she's a Clinton, after all), but the smart money now is on Obama/McCain.

A fair value for Hillary right now would probably be closer to 15.  I expect her to continue losing superdelegates to Obama in the coming days, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her drop Texas.
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« Reply #1556 on: February 20, 2008, 12:23:42 am »
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Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?
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« Reply #1557 on: February 20, 2008, 12:29:48 am »
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Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Vermont?

Before Vermont?
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« Reply #1558 on: February 20, 2008, 12:30:31 am »
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LOL wow, I have no clue what I was thinking there. Edited.
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« Reply #1559 on: February 20, 2008, 12:32:10 am »
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Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?
Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.
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« Reply #1560 on: February 20, 2008, 01:09:25 am »
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Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?
Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.

I'll still give a buy for Clinton for the nomination; undervalued at this point, but I'd be prepared to sell in a hurry.
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« Reply #1561 on: February 20, 2008, 04:30:50 am »
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This thing is massively overestimating the Democrats' chances in the general election. If I have done this thing correctly, I derive Hillary's conditional probability of winning the general election assuming she wins the nomination to be about 58% (compared to 69% for Obama). That just doesn't look right. If she still wins the nomination, it's likely this will not happen without huge damage being done in the process to the party's chances in the fall.
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« Reply #1562 on: February 20, 2008, 07:55:43 am »
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Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?
Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.

I'll still give a buy for Clinton for the nomination; undervalued at this point, but I'd be prepared to sell in a hurry.
Sure, it's undervalued, but I don't see any events in the next couple weeks that are going to make people start buying her again.
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« Reply #1563 on: February 20, 2008, 10:56:34 am »
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Clinton sinks further for Dem. nomination:

Obama 80.0
Clinton 18.9

and in winning individual:

Obama 53.0
McCain 35.9
Clinton 10.0
Bloomberg 1.0

Clark now the frontrunner for Dem VP nominee:

Clark 12.5
Gore 8.8
Richardson 8.3
Bayh 7.7
Webb 7.5

Huckabee has collapsed in the GOP VP nominee market:

Pawlenty 22.5
Romney 8.7
Huckabee 8.4
Rice 5.0
Hutchison 3.9
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« Reply #1564 on: February 20, 2008, 12:38:05 pm »
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Buy Clinton.
Agreed. She's definitely undervalued at this point.

Smiley
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« Reply #1565 on: February 20, 2008, 12:43:18 pm »
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Ohio

Clinton 52.0
Obama 45.1

Texas

Obama 67.0
Clinton 30.0

Vermont

Obama 92.0
Clinton 10.1

Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0
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« Reply #1566 on: February 20, 2008, 12:46:21 pm »
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Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy
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« Reply #1567 on: February 20, 2008, 12:49:28 pm »
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Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy

Buy who?
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« Reply #1568 on: February 20, 2008, 12:51:22 pm »
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Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy

Buy who?

he means Clinton, as RI's demographics favor Clinton, in theory.  but then again - if Worcester County + a few %'s worth of blacks voted on March 4, would Obama win it?  maybe, maybe not.  I wouldn't touch the market.
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« Reply #1569 on: February 20, 2008, 01:20:48 pm »
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One thing to remember about Intrade—one thing I've learned playing around with it over the last few months—is that the market is painfully inefficent.  People get a lot more emotional about a share of Obama to win the Presidency than they do over a share of Microsoft.

And the markets are surprisingly slow to react to news.  They're not liquid enough, even in the big stocks.  We all knew Hillary would lose Wisconsin.  The market knew Hillary would lose Wisconsin—Obama had a huge lead there.  In a fully liquid market, that news would have already been priced into Hillary to win the nomination.  If Hillary was a stock on the NYSE, she'd have fallen maybe one or two percent based on the strength of Obama's win.  On Intrade, she tanked 33%.

If she loses Texas, which Intrade already expects to happen, shares of her to win the nomination will plunge into the single digits.  Buy Hillary at your own peril—the short term market will eat you alive for it.
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« Reply #1570 on: February 21, 2008, 05:22:51 pm »
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Obama's probably overvalued in every state except Vermont, but I wouldn't be comfortable shorting in any one besides Rhode island. In Rhode Island I am currently shorting on the mock InTrade.
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« Reply #1571 on: February 22, 2008, 05:26:14 pm »
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Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.
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« Reply #1572 on: February 22, 2008, 05:27:21 pm »
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Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.

Hoping for a brokered convention, I guess.
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« Reply #1573 on: February 22, 2008, 05:30:32 pm »
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Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.

Hoping for a brokered convention, I guess.

or the scenario opebo outlined in the other thread.
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« Reply #1574 on: February 23, 2008, 07:35:21 pm »
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Obama now at 85.0, Hillary at 14.7. Obama is at roughly the same spot McCain was at after Florida, and is also now more than 10 points higher than Hillary's peak.
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