New Tradesports rankings

[© Tweed the Younger]

Obama surge, of course.  hit a record high of 82 a little while ago.


Obama 78.5
Clinton 21.8
Gore 1.3
Edwards 0.2


McCain 95.5
Giuliani 1.3
Paul 1.2
Huckabee 0.9
Romney 0.6
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.2
Thompson 0.2

[Verily]

LOL, Giuliani higher than Huckabee and Paul.

[© Tweed the Younger]

also, Obama has crossed 50 in winning individual.  Clinton down to 12.

[© Tweed the Younger]

LOL, Giuliani higher than Huckabee and Paul.

the Rudy stock went a bit batsh**t earlier, with somebody buying out all the offers to 2.0.  the current bid/ask split is 1.3/14.7.

[Speed of Sound]

also, Obama has crossed 50 in winning individual.  Clinton down to 12.

Hahahahahahahaha......oh my......

[Former Moderate]

I tried selling off all my Clinton this afternoon, plus short another ten.

I got rid of all the Clinton at 28.3, but I was only able to short three more.

It should be safe to say that Clinton is done at this point.  I'd short her even more at this point—I wouldn't go TOO wild, since there's still a chance she could pull it out (she's a Clinton, after all), but the smart money now is on Obama/McCain.

A fair value for Hillary right now would probably be closer to 15.  I expect her to continue losing superdelegates to Obama in the coming days, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her drop Texas.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?

[Mr. Morden]

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Vermont?

Before Vermont?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

LOL wow, I have no clue what I was thinking there. Edited.

[Lіef]

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?

Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.

[J. J.]

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?

Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.

I'll still give a buy for Clinton for the nomination; undervalued at this point, but I'd be prepared to sell in a hurry.

[Angel of Death]

This thing is massively overestimating the Democrats' chances in the general election. If I have done this thing correctly, I derive Hillary's conditional probability of winning the general election assuming she wins the nomination to be about 58% (compared to 69% for Obama). That just doesn't look right. If she still wins the nomination, it's likely this will not happen without huge damage being done in the process to the party's chances in the fall.

[Lіef]

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?

Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.

I'll still give a buy for Clinton for the nomination; undervalued at this point, but I'd be prepared to sell in a hurry.

Sure, it's undervalued, but I don't see any events in the next couple weeks that are going to make people start buying her again.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton sinks further for Dem. nomination:

Obama 80.0
Clinton 18.9

and in winning individual:

Obama 53.0
McCain 35.9
Clinton 10.0
Bloomberg 1.0

Clark now the frontrunner for Dem VP nominee:

Clark 12.5
Gore 8.8
Richardson 8.3
Bayh 7.7
Webb 7.5

Huckabee has collapsed in the GOP VP nominee market:

Pawlenty 22.5
Romney 8.7
Huckabee 8.4
Rice 5.0
Hutchison 3.9

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Buy Clinton.

Agreed. She's definitely undervalued at this point.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Ohio

Clinton 52.0
Obama 45.1

Texas

Obama 67.0
Clinton 30.0

Vermont

Obama 92.0
Clinton 10.1

Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy

Buy who?

[© Tweed the Younger]

Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy

Buy who?

he means Clinton, as RI's demographics favor Clinton, in theory.  but then again - if Worcester County + a few %'s worth of blacks voted on March 4, would Obama win it?  maybe, maybe not.  I wouldn't touch the market.

[Former Moderate]

One thing to remember about Intrade—one thing I've learned playing around with it over the last few months—is that the market is painfully inefficent.  People get a lot more emotional about a share of Obama to win the Presidency than they do over a share of Microsoft.

And the markets are surprisingly slow to react to news.  They're not liquid enough, even in the big stocks.  We all knew Hillary would lose Wisconsin.  The market knew Hillary would lose Wisconsin—Obama had a huge lead there.  In a fully liquid market, that news would have already been priced into Hillary to win the nomination.  If Hillary was a stock on the NYSE, she'd have fallen maybe one or two percent based on the strength of Obama's win.  On Intrade, she tanked 33%.

If she loses Texas, which Intrade already expects to happen, shares of her to win the nomination will plunge into the single digits.  Buy Hillary at your own peril—the short term market will eat you alive for it.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Obama's probably overvalued in every state except Vermont, but I wouldn't be comfortable shorting in any one besides Rhode island. In Rhode Island I am currently shorting on the mock InTrade.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.

[Former Moderate]

Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.

Hoping for a brokered convention, I guess.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.

Hoping for a brokered convention, I guess.

or the scenario opebo outlined in the other thread.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Obama now at 85.0, Hillary at 14.7. Obama is at roughly the same spot McCain was at after Florida, and is also now more than 10 points higher than Hillary's peak.