New Tradesports rankings

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Obama surge!

Democrats
Clinton 53.3
Obama 19.5
Edwards 8.7
Gore 7.3
Bayh 2.6
Richardson 1.9
Vilsack 1.8
Kerry 1.4
Clark 1.1
Biden 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3

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He's at 19, Hillary is 53...what kind of surge is that?

He seems to be hurting Gore, and to a lesser extent Edwards more than Hillary.

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New numbers. Warner is doing pretty well for having said he's not running.
McCain is close to an all time high.

Democrats

Clinton 53.4
Obama 20.5
Edwards 10.4
Gore 7.0
Warner 3.0
Vilsack 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.7
Clark 1.0
Biden 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans

McCain 51.2
Romney 15.4
Giuliani 14.7
Huckabee 7.1
Gingrich 4.5
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.3
Hagel 1.0
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6

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Warner, Vilsack, Huckabee down
Edwards and Dodd, Hagel, Allen, Gilmore up

Democrats

Clinton 53.0
Obama 20.7
Edwards 11.4
Gore 7.4
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.6
Dodd 1.3
Vilsack 1.0
Warner 1.0
Clark 0.9
Biden 0.6


Republicans

McCain 51.1
Romney 15.4
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 4.3
Hagel 1.6
Brownback 1.5
Rice 1.4
Cheney 0.8
Pataki 0.6
J. Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Gilmore 0.3

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All over 0.5% listed

Edwards surge

Democrats
Clinton 50.8
Obama 21.5
Edwards 15.0
Gore 7.4
Richardson 2.5
Kerry 1.7
Vilsack 1.3
Biden 1.0
Warner 1.0
Clark 0.9
Dodd 0.9

Republicans
McCain 51.0
Giuliani 15.1
Romney 15.0
Huckabee 7.0
Gingrich 3.6
Hagel 1.7
Brownback 1.6
Rice 1.4
Cheney 0.8
Allen 0.6
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6

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Wow, there's been a fair amount of movement.
Hillary is the lowest in a while, McCain has better nomination odds than her now.
Obama is basically a record high.
Guiliani and Romney gained at the expense of Huckabee and Gingrich
A lot of 0.2 point gaps for the Democrats.

Democrats
Clinton 50.0
Obama 22.0
Edwards 14.9
Gore 7.0
Richardson 2.1
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Biden 1.2
Clark 1.0
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.5
Romney 15.7
Guiliani 15.0
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 2.9
Hagel 1.6
Brownback 1.6
Rice 1.4
Cheney 0.8
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5

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Obama is now a lifetime high of 23.0

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Now that we're in 2007.
Brownback and Powell surge. Huckabee drops.

Democrats
Clinton 49.9
Obama 22.0
Edwards 13.8
Gore 6.6
Richardson 2.0
Kerry 1.7
Vilsack 1.4
Biden 1.2
Warner 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.6
Romney 16.5
Giuliani 16.2
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 1.9
Hagel 1.5
Cheney 0.8
Powell 0.8
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5

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McCain's hold on the GOP nomination is only going to increase.  He's the establishment candidate.

He'll be 72 years old in 2008. The last time the president-elect was older than the president in an open race was 1908, an Bill Taft was only older than Roosevelt by a year! It's not going to happen.

I like the fact McCain is older. We need an older President in these times, in my opinion.

Why don't you support Emma Tillman, then?  She's the oldest person in America.

No, he should vote for Emiliano Mercado del Toro, because he's the oldest.

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Front runners Clinton and McCain both drop
Powell and Brownback also drop. Pataki and Thompson rise.


Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 21.1
Edwards 14.8
Gore 6.9
Richardson 1.8
Kerry 1.6
Biden 1.6
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7


Republicans
McCain 48.2
Giuliani 16.6
Romney 16.3
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Brownback 2.0
Rice 1.9
Hagel 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.5
Pataki 0.5

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Clinton, Obama, Clark, Giuliani, Powell, Thompson drop
Biden, McCain, Rice, Hagel rise

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 19.5
Edwards 17.0
Gore 6.8
Biden 2.1
Kerry 1.6
Richardson 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 49.6
Romney 16.2
Giuliani 14.8
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5

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Gore, Richardson up
McCain, Pataki down

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 20.5
Edwards 17.0
Gore 8.3
Richardson 2.7
Biden 2.0
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 48.0
Romney 17.1
Giuliani 14.7
Huckabee 4.0
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5

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Lots of movement on the Democratic side

Gainers: Clinton, Gore, Biden, Dodd
Droppers: Obama, Edwards, Richardson

Democrats
Clinton 46.8
Obama 19.2
Edwards 16.2
Gore 8.9
Richardson 2.0
Biden 2.5
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7

Republicans
McCain 48.1
Romney 17.1
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.2
Gingrich 3.6
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Brownback 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5

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Obama is now at 19.5, and Edwards has moved up to 19.0.  At this rate, Edwards will soon surpass Obama.

Of course, part of what's holding Obama back is that there's still doubt in some quarters about whether he's actually going to run.  If Obama announced today that he was running, he would probably see an immediate uptick to at least 25.0 or so.

There are some rumors that he'll announce on Martin Luther King Day (Monday), but those are just rumors.

Richardson said he'd make a decision soon, though.

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Up: Clinton, Obama,Edwards, Huckabee
Down: Rice

Democrats
Clinton 48.7
Obama 20.0
Edwards 18.9
Gore 8.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 2.1
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Dodd 1.2
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.6

Republicans
McCain 47.9
Romney 17.2
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.9
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 2.7
Brownback 2.7
Rice 1.6
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5

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Up: Biden, Clark, Rice
Down: Obama, Edwards, Gore,  Richardson, Dodd, McCain, Huckabee, Gingrich

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 19.2
Edwards 17.1
Gore 6.3
Biden 3.0
Richardson 1.6
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Clark 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 44.4
Romney 17.9
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.0
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Brownback 2.7
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5

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Now that Obama has formed a committee, here are the Democratic changes:

Up: Obama, Dodd
Down: Edwards, Biden, Clark

A lot of changes around 5th place for the Republicans:
Up: Gingrich, Hagel
Down: Rice, Brownback

Democrats
Clinton 47.9
Obama 20.9
Edwards 16.5
Gore 6.2
Biden 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Dodd 1.0
Warner 0.7
Clark 0.6

Republicans
McCain 44.7
Romney 17.3
Giuliani 15.5
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 4.1
Brownback 3.2
Hagel 3.1
Rice 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Powell 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Bloomberg 0.4

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I expected more of a bounce for Obama now that he's jumped in the race....but he's barely ahead of where he was a month ago, back when quite a few pundits seemed unsure of whether he'd actually get in.  I guess more people have been convinced that he'd run all along.....or else those that were unsure don't think much of his chances at the nomination anyway.

I didn't capture all of the Obama bounce. He actually gained another point since I posted that, and is now at 21.9.

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Up: Obama, Gore, Clark
Down: Edwards

There's now a lot more Republican longshots than Democratic longshots.

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 23.0
Edwards 15.7
Gore 7.9
Biden 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Vilsack 1.5
Kerry 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 44.4
Romney 17.5
Giuliani 16.2
Huckabee 4.8
Gingrich 4.1
Hagel 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Rice 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Powell 0.7
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.4

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Clinton is up a bit due to her announcement.
Obama and Edwards drop, while Gore and Gravel surge.
On the Republican side, Paul surges.

Democrats
Clinton 49.2
Obama 19.5
Edwards 13.0
Gore 10.0
Biden 2.8
Richardson 2.3
Vilsack 1.5
Kerry 1.5
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.1
Romney 17.5
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Gingrich 4.1
Hagel 3.9
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.7
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Powell 0.7
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6

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Hillary's bump has vanished. Others changes, particularly an Edwards surge.

Democrats
Clinton 46.1
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.9
Gore 9.0
Biden 2.3
Richardson 2.3
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.3
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 42.7
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Hagel 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.8
Powell 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6

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Now that some of the recent announcements have been priced in:

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.9
Gore 7.8
Biden 2.8
Richardson 2.4
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.0
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Hagel 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.8
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.1
Thompson 0.8
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6

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Paul having the same chances as Richardson? LOL

Here it is with it forced to be in the range between bid and ask, to reduce that problem. Paratheses show last if different.

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 20.0
Edwards 15.9
Gore 7.8
Richardson 2.8
Biden 2.5 (2.
Kerry 1.4 (1.5)
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Clark 0.9 (1.0)
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.0
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 7.1 (6.
Hagel 4.1 (3.9)
Gingrich 4.0 (3.5)
Brownback 3.2
Rice 2.8
Paul 2.0 (2.9)
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.1
Thompson 0.7 (0.
Bush 0.7 (0.6)
Allen 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
Gilmore 0.5 (0.7)

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Gainers: Hagel, Gingrich
Losers: Edwards, Clinton, Huckabee, Paul, Allen, Powell, Thompson

Democrats
Clinton 46.3
Obama 20.3
Edwards 13.8
Gore 8.0
Richardson 3.0
Biden 2.8
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Clark 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 42.2
Romney 16.8
Giuliani 16.4
Huckabee 5.7
Hagel 4.5
Gingrich 4.2
Brownback 3.1
Rice 2.8
Cheney 1.0
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
Paul 0.6
Powell 0.6
Hunter 0.4

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With Kerry out:

GAIN: Clinton, Edwards
LOSS: Obama, KERRY

Democrats
Clinton 47.4
Obama 18.6
Edwards 15.1
Gore 7.8
Richardson 2.7
Biden 2.7
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.6

Republicans

McCain 42.2
Romney 16.7
Giuliani 16.3
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 5.2
Hagel 4.1
Brownback 3.0
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.5