New SUSA: Bonilla(R) Hanging on in TX-23

[Sam Spade]

The race will be close, imho.  Right now, I will predict Bonilla 52-48, but Ciro could certainly win this. 

What to watch for is the results from Bexar County.  Early voting should lean GOP, whereas same-day voting should lean Dem (in comparison).  Basically, Ciro needs to win Bexar County probably by a slight margin (like maybe a 1,000 votes) in order to win, because Bonilla will probably win the border county totals (I can't see a candidate like Ciro doing well out there).

There is no party registration in Texas, so gauging registered voters in each party is nearly impossible.  Besides, in a runoff like this where we'll have maybe 15% RV show up, what matters is who actually shows up to vote, not who's a registered voter.

[Sam Spade]

Prediction - Bonilla by eight.

Optimistic prediction, imho, but races like these are very hard to predict because turnout plays a "gigantic" role.

[Sam Spade]

You do realize that Bonilla is Hispanic and not white (and looks it too). 

Maybe because of the views he holds, he's not really Hispanic, who knows...

[Sam Spade]

You do realize that Bonilla is Hispanic and not white (and looks it too). 

Maybe because of the views he holds, he's not really Hispanic, who knows...

I do realize. However, in comparison to Ciro Rodriguez...

I didn't know a person's race was dependent on his political views. 

One must always be careful with those characterizations, lest they be proven grossly inaccurate.

[Sam Spade]

You do realize that Bonilla is Hispanic and not white (and looks it too). 

I do realize. However, in comparison to Ciro Rodriguez...

Bonilla looks Indian in comparison to Ciro.

True dat. 

Of course in that area of the world, the mestizos clearly outnumber those who look more European (Ciro looks almost Spanish)

The mestizos were always the ones most likely to immigrate, since the caste system in Latin America really screws them over.