Control of the 110th Senate could be in Republican hands

[Joe Biden 2020]

According to http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/12/14/johnson.ill/index.html, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) has suffered a brain hemorage.

If he were unable to serve as Senator, the new majority leader could actually be Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) instead of Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV).  South Dakota Governor, Mike Rounds, a Republican, would likely appoint a Republican replacement for Johnson, thus bringing the Senate to a 50-50 tie and giving Vice President Dick Cheney the tie-breaker.

Certainly, we wish Johnson and his family the best, but how big of an impact would that one seat shift have on the new Congress?

[AndrewTX]

I hope he makes a safe and speedy recovery. He's a good guy, and a great Senator.

 The question is though, if he weren't able to serve, who would Rounds appoint, and more importantly, who would survive the next election. Most likely, there will be a special election held in 2007, and Herseth would run, and put up quite a challenge.

I think the only option would be Dennis Daugaard.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Who is Dennis Daugaard?  I think you're correct that Hersheth would be a formidable candidate in a special election, she could probably beat Rounds if he ran himself or any other Republican.  Hopefully, Rounds, who is reportedly good friends with Johnson?, would put partisanship aside and appoint a Democrat to the seat.  The people of South Dakota chose a Democrat at the last election and it would be subverting their will to replace a Democrat with a Republican.  The people of the United States voted in November to give the control of the United States Senate to the Democratic party, and their votes should be respected. 

Hopefully though none of this will be neccesary as Tim Johnson shall recover and go on to serve the people of South Dakota in the Senate for many years.

[Bdub]

Who is Dennis Daugaard?  I think you're correct that Hersheth would be a formidable candidate in a special election, she could probably beat Rounds if he ran himself or any other Republican.  Hopefully, Rounds, who is reportedly good friends with Johnson?, would put partisanship aside and appoint a Democrat to the seat.  The people of South Dakota chose a Democrat at the last election and it would be subverting their will to replace a Democrat with a Republican.  The people of the United States voted in November to give the control of the United States Senate to the Democratic party, and their votes should be respected. 

And you really think a Democrat would do the same thing in that situation.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Who is Dennis Daugaard?  I think you're correct that Hersheth would be a formidable candidate in a special election, she could probably beat Rounds if he ran himself or any other Republican.  Hopefully, Rounds, who is reportedly good friends with Johnson?, would put partisanship aside and appoint a Democrat to the seat.  The people of South Dakota chose a Democrat at the last election and it would be subverting their will to replace a Democrat with a Republican.  The people of the United States voted in November to give the control of the United States Senate to the Democratic party, and their votes should be respected. 

And you really think a Democrat would do the same thing in that situation.

I cannot know that can I?  But instead of justifying what the Republican Governor of South Dakota will probably do like you are, I would condemn a Democrat who appointed a Democrat to a seat that had elected a Republican in the last election. 

[TheresNoMoney]

The media, Fox News especially, is foaming at the mouth at the chance for a Republican Senate again.

It's been absolutely sickening, a sign of true depravity.

[AndrewTX]

Who is Dennis Daugaard?  I think you're correct that Hersheth would be a formidable candidate in a special election, she could probably beat Rounds if he ran himself or any other Republican.  Hopefully, Rounds, who is reportedly good friends with Johnson?, would put partisanship aside and appoint a Democrat to the seat.  The people of South Dakota chose a Democrat at the last election and it would be subverting their will to replace a Democrat with a Republican.  The people of the United States voted in November to give the control of the United States Senate to the Democratic party, and their votes should be respected. 

Hopefully though none of this will be neccesary as Tim Johnson shall recover and go on to serve the people of South Dakota in the Senate for many years.

I hope that Johnson will continue serving in the Senate, and be re-elected in 2008. But the fact of the matter is, if he resigns, a Republican will be appointed.  Just about any Governor would do the same for their party, especially if the majority was at stake. When Sen. Paul Coverdell (R-GA) died in  2000, Gov. Roy Barnes (D-GA) appointed Zell Miller to his seat. Regardless of how conservative Miller was, it was still a another seat for the Democrats.

 It's happened so many times, it's just to be expected.

[SPQR]

sh**t,he is not even 60...

Anyway,as the article says,he could be removed only in the event he died...even if he had to spend a year in that hospital,he'd be a senator and democrats would have control of the senate.

[MAS117]

I hope Johnson gets better, and if he doesnt does not resign unless Rounds appoitns a Democrat. If he doesn't agree to appoint a Democrat, Johnson should stay in that seat until 2008 even if he does not ever go to Washington.

[Verily]

I hope Johnson gets better, and if he doesnt does not resign unless Rounds appoitns a Democrat. If he doesn't agree to appoint a Democrat, Johnson should stay in that seat until 2008 even if he does not ever go to Washington.

It sounds like this is what is likely to happen. Even if Johnson does not recover sufficiently to return to the Senate (Forbid!), he'll stay in office unless 2008 (or maybe resign if Rounds agrees to appoint Herseth). That gives the Democrats an effective majority, 50-49. I can't imagine a situation now in which Herseth does not run for the seat in 2008 (unless Johnson recovers fully and decides not to retire), and she would win easily after her massive victory in the At-Large House race in 2006.

While Johnson is not in great shape, I've done some research on the illness (it's genetic defect, not a normal brain hemorrhage), and it's very rarely fatal if treated. However, it can cause permanent speech and movement difficulties, so we should all hope for a full recovery by Johnson.

[J.G.H.]

Dennis Daugaard is the Lieutenant Governor, but I've never heard of him saying or doing anything, a complete unknown. Given there's only a single Congressional district, there aren't that many prominent Republicans despite them having complete control over the government. Attorney General Larry Long and Secretary of State Chris Nelson are the ones I can think of off the top of my head.

[Adlai Stevenson]

It seems likely a Republican would win Hersheth's SD-AL seat?  That seat seems fated never to be occupied for very long.  She has only been there since 2004. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think everyone is a little too high on:

1.) Stephanie Herseth is a lock for winning a special election
2.) Tom Daschle does not try to get the seat

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I hope Johnson gets better, and if he doesnt does not resign unless Rounds appoitns a Democrat. If he doesn't agree to appoint a Democrat, Johnson should stay in that seat until 2008 even if he does not ever go to Washington.

If he were not there to vote in January for reorganization, would that not mean that the GOP would win the election of a majority leader?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Senator Johnson is actually younger than the median Senator
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_Senators_by_age

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I hope Johnson gets better, and if he doesnt does not resign unless Rounds appoitns a Democrat. If he doesn't agree to appoint a Democrat, Johnson should stay in that seat until 2008 even if he does not ever go to Washington.

If he were not there to vote in January for reorganization, would that not mean that the GOP would win the election of a majority leader?

No. There are 2 more Democrats (counting Sanders and Lieberman)  than Republicans. We have the mandate, your party is only 1 Senator away from controlling the Senate because of Dick "great shot" Cheney's tie-breaking abilities (which were used in early 2001).

[Verily]

I think everyone is a little too high on:

1.) Stephanie Herseth is a lock for winning a special election
2.) Tom Daschle does not try to get the seat

Herseth won 69% of the vote in a statewide election that South Dakotans knew might determine control of Congress. There's no way she would lose to anyone except maybe Rounds himself.

Also, Daschle might try to get the seat, but he'd fail miserably.

I hope Johnson gets better, and if he doesnt does not resign unless Rounds appoitns a Democrat. If he doesn't agree to appoint a Democrat, Johnson should stay in that seat until 2008 even if he does not ever go to Washington.

If he were not there to vote in January for reorganization, would that not mean that the GOP would win the election of a majority leader?

No, the vote would be 50-49 for Harry Reid. Cheney doesn't get a vote because the vote isn't a tie.

[7,052,770]

I hope Johnson gets better, and if he doesnt does not resign unless Rounds appoitns a Democrat. If he doesn't agree to appoint a Democrat, Johnson should stay in that seat until 2008 even if he does not ever go to Washington.

If he were not there to vote in January for reorganization, would that not mean that the GOP would win the election of a majority leader?

the Dems would still win 50-49.







And Rounds better appoint Herseth to this seat if it becomes vacant...

[Deano963]

I hope Johnson gets better, and if he doesnt does not resign unless Rounds appoitns a Democrat. If he doesn't agree to appoint a Democrat, Johnson should stay in that seat until 2008 even if he does not ever go to Washington.

If he were not there to vote in January for reorganization, would that not mean that the GOP would win the election of a majority leader?

Nooooooo.......b/c Democrats would still have a 50-49 majority.

[Padfoot]

I think everyone is a little too high on:

1.) Stephanie Herseth is a lock for winning a special election
2.) Tom Daschle does not try to get the seat

Herseth won 69% of the vote in a statewide election that South Dakotans knew might determine control of Congress. There's no way she would lose to anyone except maybe Rounds himself.

Also, Daschle might try to get the seat, but he'd fail miserably.

Why would Daschle fail?  Against a weak Republican it is likely he would win seeing as he netted 49% in 2004 against a fairly strong opponent.

[Deano963]

sh**t,he is not even 60...

Anyway,as the article says,he could be removed only in the event he died...even if he had to spend a year in that hospital,he'd be a senator and democrats would have control of the senate.

Correct. Everyone seems to be overlooking this. Unless Johnson actually dies, the chances of a replacement being appointed to fill his seat are next to zero. The Senate throughout its history has often held seats for Senators who are forced away by illness for months, even years.

[Deano963]

I think everyone is a little too high on:

1.) Stephanie Herseth is a lock for winning a special election
2.) Tom Daschle does not try to get the seat

Herseth won 69% of the vote in a statewide election that South Dakotans knew might determine control of Congress. There's no way she would lose to anyone except maybe Rounds himself.

Also, Daschle might try to get the seat, but he'd fail miserably.

Why would Daschle fail?  Against a weak Republican it is likely he would win seeing as he netted 49% in 2004 against a fairly strong opponent.

Thune is widely regarded as the strongest Republican in South Dakota. Seeing as how Daschle lost to him by the slimmest of margins in '04 when Bush was carrying the state by 20 points, saying that he would fail miserably in a special election is a pretty darn ignorant statement, to put it nicely. But this won't even be an issue unless Johnson dies, and even then a special election wouldn't happen.

[Democratic Hawk]

sh**t,he is not even 60...

Anyway,as the article says,he could be removed only in the event he died...even if he had to spend a year in that hospital,he'd be a senator and democrats would have control of the senate.

Correct. Everyone seems to be overlooking this. Unless Johnson actually dies, the chances of a replacement being appointed to fill his seat are next to zero. The Senate throughout its history has often held seats for Senators who are forced away by illness for months, even years.

Quite and Senator Johnson should be no exception. Of course, it wouldn't surprise me, should he survive (he remains critical) but make a slow recovery, that the vultures will demand his resignation on the grounds of incapacity. And it would be an act of despicable opportunism for any one to articulate that position

I'm sure South Dakotans wish their senator a full and speedy recovery, irrespective of party and/or ideology

There may come a time when the senator feels that he can't continue his duties on health grounds and vacate his seat. Be that the eventual case, then he should request Governor Rounds appoint a Democrat to serve out his term. And if the Governor has any integrity, he'd do exactly that

Dave

[bullmoose88]

sh**t,he is not even 60...

Anyway,as the article says,he could be removed only in the event he died...even if he had to spend a year in that hospital,he'd be a senator and democrats would have control of the senate.

Correct. Everyone seems to be overlooking this. Unless Johnson actually dies, the chances of a replacement being appointed to fill his seat are next to zero. The Senate throughout its history has often held seats for Senators who are forced away by illness for months, even years.

There may come a time when the senator feels that he can't continue his duties on health grounds and vacate his seat. Be that the eventual case, then he should request Governor Rounds appoint a Democrat to serve out his term. And if the Governor has any integrity, he'd do exactly that

Dave

I was sure you'd say this. Why should he? The people of South Dakota voted for Tim Johnson because he is Tim Johnson...I find it highly unlikely they voted for him because he was a democrat. In this case (unlike other states) Tim Johnson has a mandate, not the democratic party.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I think that Rounds should do exactly what Roy Barnes did.  Appoint a very very moderate member of his own party.  Someone call the moving van to help Lincoln Chafee move to Sioux Falls