America: 2000-2016

[Yates]

2000 Presidential Election

Republican Primary
After a strong victory in the Iowa Caucuses, Texas Governor George W. Bush is defeated in an upset by Arizona Senator John McCain in the New Hampshire Primary.  However, after a solid margin of victory in South Carolina, Governor Bush attains significant momentum, which earns him the Presidential nomination.  He selects personal friend and Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge as his running mate.

Democratic Primary
Though initially fearing defeat, Vice President Al Gore sweeps through all fifty states during the primaries against far-left candidates former Senator Bill Bradley and Senator Paul Wellstone.  He accepts his nomination in front of a united convention.  He selects Massachusetts Senator John Kerry as his running mate.

General Election
The Bush/Ridge ticket, masterminded by Karl Rove, quickly portrays the Gore/Kerry ticket as too liberal for mainstream America.  Vice President Gore becomes the target of several attack ads which focus on controversies in his past, including illegal fundraising from his White House office, and his proclamation that he invented the internet.  Senator Kerry does little to help the ticket.  Instead, he too becomes the focus of several attack ads. 

Gallup Poll
9/1/2000
Bush/Ridge: 51%
Gore/Kerry: 40%

The debates between Bush and Gore seem to be seen as near ties by the American public, with a slight preference being given to Gore.  In the Vice-Presidential debate, Tom Ridge comes out as the widely perceived winner.

Although Gore works earnestly to close the gap before Election Day, the brilliant Bush/Ridge campaign by Karl Rove is far too strong.

Results:

Electoral Vote
Bush/Ridge: 342
Gore/Kerry: 196

Popular Vote
Bush/Ridge: 53%
Gore/Kerry: 44%
Nader/LaDuke: 2%

President-elect Bush and Vice-President-elect Ridge take office in January.

[Yates]

Bush/Ridge: 2001-2005



The Bush/Ridge Administration has a smooth beginning.  The President is able to garner bi-partisan support for his No Child Left Behind Act and has a generally positive relationship with Congress.

CNN Poll
April 20, 2001
Bush Approval Rating
Approve: 61%
Disapprove: 37%
Unsure: 2%

On September 11th, 2001, terrorists attack the World Trade Center in New York City and the Pentagon outside Washington, D.C.  The nation reacts in shock.  President Bush immediately travels to New York City in order to attempt to emotionally lead the nation in healing, while Vice President Ridge remains in Washington, D.C. in order to produce a comprehensive policy for the United States government to deal with terrorism.

In December of 2001, the United States begins bombing raids of the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.  In January of 2002, ground troops begin to disperse throughout the Afghan mountains with the intent of finding and capturing Osama bin Laden. 

Back at home, President Bush is enjoying immensely high approval ratings.

New York Times Poll
January 23, 2002
Bush Approval Rating
Approve: 82%
Disapprove: 17%
Unsure: 1%

In the summer of 2002, the Bush Administration announces its plan to search for and eliminate terrorist cells in the United States, designed primarily by Vice President Ridge.  Within the following year, dozens of terrorist cells are discovered and eliminated.

In response to the administration's success in preventing terrorism, the economy soars.  The stock market has returned to normal trading and is steadily rising. 

In December 2002, President Bush announces that his administration has concluded that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was behind the 9/11 attacks.  Later that month, Congress votes to authorize the use of force against Iraq.

(To be continued)

[Yates]

There will be another update this evening.

[Yates]

How did the 2002 midterms play out?

I had forgotten to include that in the first update; I apologize.

The midterms were similar to real life, but with larger Republican gains.  All Congressional leadership is the same.

[Yates]

Bush/Ridge: First Term (continued)



In March of 2003, President Bush announces that military operations in Iraq have begun.  The same night, CNN reports that Iraqi anti-aircraft missiles have destroyed three United States Air Force planes. 

The following day, Saddam Hussein declares war on the United States.  Four bombers from the Iraqi military are sent to bomb United States military camps in Kuwait.  Hundreds of soldiers are killed.  In response, President Bush orders the commanders on the ground to "destroy Baghdad."

In Operation Vengeful Thunder, the United States Air Force drops dozens of bombs across the city of Baghdad, destroying many Iraqi government buildings, but also resulting in the deaths of many civilians.

In the United States, Election 2004 is beginning to heat up.  President Bush has announced that he will run for re-election, but he has yet to confirm that Vice President Ridge will remain on his ticket.  On the Democratic side, former Vice President Gore has announced that he will not be running, while his running mate, John Kerry, has declared his candidacy, along with Senator John Edwards, House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, Vermont Governor Howard Dean, and Georgia Governor Roy Barnes.  At this point, most media coverage is focused on the Iraq War, and not on the election.

The Iraq War continues to proceed poorly.  The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, led a group of over one hundred countries in condemning the "unjustified and inexcusable actions of the United States military."  Apparantly frustrated with the lack of diplomatic cooperation before the war, Secretary of State Colin Powell quietly resigns, soon replaced with diplomat and prominent neoconservative Robert Zoellick.

MSNBC Poll
April 17th, 2003
Presidential Approval Rating
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 56%
Unsure: 3%
Iraq War Approval Rating
Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 62%
Unsure: 9%

On April 20th, 2006, United States ground forces capture Saddam Hussein and sons from Baghdad and bring them to Kuwait to be held in a military detention facility.  Saddam's capture brings the approval rating of both the President and the war slightly up.

Des Moines Register
Iowa Caucus Poll
May 10th, 2003
Gephardt: 20%
Daschle: 16%
Edwards: 11%
Barnes: 6%
Kerry: 5%
Dean: 2%
Kucinich: 1%

In June of 2003, Saddam's government is virtually eliminated, and ground forces begin to secure the city of Baghdad.

On July 10th, 2003, Vice President Ridge announces that he will fill out the remainder of his term as Vice President, but will not be running on a ticket with President Bush.  President Bush first offers the Vice Presidential spot to former Missouri Senator John Danforth, but Danforth respectfully declines.  Instead, Bush asks a relative unknown.

On July 21st, 2003, President Bush announces his choice for running mate: the wife of a family friend, conservative author, political talk show host, and former government agency director:

Lynne Cheney.

More to come.

[Yates]

Disclaimer

The events described in this fiction are not necessarily the desires of the author.  This fiction has been and is being written free from political bias.

[Yates]

I admit, I don't like the way the military is being played out here but nevertheless, I found the story to be very interesting though unrealistic.

I'm looking forward to see how your 2004 election turns out.  Keep it up!

As I noted above, the events described here do not represent my own opinions or wishes.  I have enormous respect for the military as well as your service to our country.  This story is merely to entertain, and certainly does not reflect the honor and gallantry that the true military has.

[Yates]

I must note one small detail before posting the next update tonight.  In this fiction, Roy Barnes was re-elected Governor of Georgia in 2002 against Sonny Perdue.

[Yates]

I admit, I don't like the way the military is being played out here but nevertheless, I found the story to be very interesting though unrealistic.

I'm looking forward to see how your 2004 election turns out.  Keep it up!

As I noted above, the events described here do not represent my own opinions or wishes.  I have enormous respect for the military as well as your service to our country.  This story is merely to entertain, and certainly does not reflect the honor and gallantry that the true military has.

Hey Brother: I know you're doing it for entertaining and I think you are doing a great job on this.  Keep it up!

One question: Did Jeffords still switch parties in June of '01?

Thank you.

And yes, he did.  However, the Republicans regain the majority after the 2002 midterm elections.

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part I

In the second half of 2003, Iraq has gone to chaos.  An insurgency fired up seemingly overnight, and it has become fairly ordinary to have hundreds of troops killed in one day.  The war has become extraordinarily unpopular with the American people, with only 12% approving.

Because of his frustration with the Iraq War, retired N.A.T.O. Supreme Commander General Wesley Clark announces that he will challenge President Bush in the Republican primary.  "I can no longer stand to see my party support the President who started this moronic war," says Clark. 

MSNBC Poll
Republican Primary
November 12th, 2003
Bush: 57%
Clark: 30%

Meanwhile, the Democratic nomination appears up for grabs.  Dick Gephardt continues to hold a narrow lead in Iowa polls, but Tom Daschle has been establishing a solid lead in New Hampshire.  Roy Barnes has surprised political analysts by surging to a solid second place in polls in both states.  Edwards, Kerry, Dean, and Kucinich are all in the single digits. 

In December of 2003, Barnes announces that he will remove all troops from Iraq within one month upon taking office.  In the two weeks after this statement, both Kucinich and Dean end their bids for the nomination and endorse Barnes, who surges ahead in Iowa polls.

On the Republican side, Senator Chuck Grassley and Congressman Jim Nussle are actively campaigning for the President in Iowa, and the polls show that their work is paying off.

Des Moines Register
Iowa Caucus - Republican
December 20th, 2003
Bush: 66%
Clark: 29%

CAUCUS NIGHT

Early on the night of the Iowa Caucuses, George W. Bush appears to hold an insurmountable lead.  At 9:34 P.M., he is declared the winner.

Iowa Caucus
Republican

[X] Winner
65.29%

As the night progresses, Georgia Governor Roy Barnes, who, like another former Georgia Governor, was once written off as an also-ran, maintains a solid lead.

By 11:19 P.M., it is over.

Iowa Caucus
Democratic

[X] Winner
42.73%

Dick Gephardt placed second.  As he labeled Iowa as a "must-win" state, he ends his Presidential bid the following day.  Tom Daschle placed third, following by John Edwards.  John Kerry, who placed last out of the major candidates, announces that, if he does not come in third place or higher in the New Hampshire Primary, he will leave the race.

Stay tuned for Election 2004: Part II, coming either tonight or tomorrow, with Part III coming shortly thereafter.

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part II will be posted by 11:00 P.M. EST.

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part II

The day after the Iowa Caucuses, Dick Gephardt announces that he will be ending his Presidential bid.  In a somber press conference, Gephardt says that he will be making an endorsement for the primary in the coming weeks. 

In a similar press conference, Senator John Edwards announces that he will be suspending his campaign indefinitely.  Campaign insiders suspect that Edwards may be waiting until after the New Hampshire Primary to make an endorsement, although he is rumored to prefer Barnes over the other remaining candidates.

On the Republican side, General Wes Clark gives a charismatic speech after his Iowa defeat.  "Over a third of Republicans voted against George W. Bush!  We will continue this campaign to represent those in our party who haven't had a voice and we will be victorious!"

President Bush immediately travels to New Hampshire, where he is joined by Governor Craig Benson and Senators Judd Gregg and John Sununu to begin his campaign.

In the days following the Iowa Caucuses, Tom Daschle begins to see his formerly solid lead in New Hampshire slide.

University of New Hampshire Poll
Democratic Primary
February 1st, 2004
Daschle: 43%
Barnes: 39%
Kerry: 12%

A poll for Republicans shows a tightening race.

University of New Hampshire Poll
Republican Primary
February 1st, 2004
Bush: 55%
Clark: 39%

Meanwhile, in Iraq, soldiers are having a very difficult time crushing the insurgency.  In January alone, 3,487 United States troops were killed.  Mass protests begin to form in front of the White House and the Capitol Building.  Approval of the war is down to a mere 9%, and President Bush's approval is down to 30%, only 59% of Republicans approving.

The economy is also suffering.  Since the war began, the stock market has slowed rapidly, with the economy in a constant state of recession.  Addressing this issue, Senator Daschle states that, "With his idiotic handling of the Iraq War, the President has put Americans in danger.  I'm not talking about physical danger.  I'm talking about the danger of starving, of living on the streets, and of not getting a quality education."

Feeling compelled to directly address this issue, President Bush gives an address to the nation in early February.  In the address, Bush announces that, because of the enormous death toll of the war, he will begin to withdraw troops in April, and will cooperate with the United Nations and regional Middle Eastern nations to hand over control of security forces.  Upon this announcement, his approval rating climbs by 10% in one night.

New Hampshire Primary

Early in the evening, President Bush has a very large lead, which he maintains through the night.  At 8:39 P.M., he is declared the winner.

New Hampshire Primary
Republican Results
[X] George W. Bush: 67.84%
Wesley Clark: 30.59%
Other: 1.57%

The Democratic Primary leader changes periodically between Tom Daschle and Roy Barnes for the entire evening.  By 1:00 A.M., Barnes has the tiniest of margins.  With 99% of the precincts reporting, the winner is projected at 2:37 A.M.

New Hampshire Primary
Democratic Results
[X] Roy Barnes: 44.36%
Tom Daschle: 43.25%
John Kerry: 10.63%
Other: 1.76%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roy Barnes emerges from the New Hampshire Primary as the undisputed frontrunner.  The following day, John Kerry leaves the race, and endorses Barnes.  One week later, Tom Daschle does the same, as does John Edwards.

Wes Clark also ends his bid, citing "a brighter opportunity to save this country."

On March 25th, 2004, Ralph Nader announces that he will not be running for President as an Independent, and urges all far-left candidates to refrain from doing so, saying, "Roy Barnes is the best chance this nation has of electing a leader who will reverse the tremendous damage this President has done."

On April 2nd, 2004, at a Democratic unity rally, presumptive Democratic nominee Roy Barnes announces his selection for running mate.

"When choosing who to select, I had a few traits in my mind.  I needed someone who had experience serving America.  I needed someone who I could get on well personally.  I needed someone who shared my beliefs.  But most of all, I needed someone who is willing to stand up and say and do what is right, even when all odds are against him.

I am proud to announce that joining me in this fight as the Democratic Party Vice-Presidential candidate will be General Wesley Clark."

ELECTION 2004: PART III - COMING SOON.

[Yates]

ELECTION 2004

THE REPUBLICAN TICKET
For President - George W. Bush
For Vice President - Lynne Cheney



THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET
For President - Roy Barnes
For Vice President - Wesley Clark

[Yates]

I'm guessing America ceases to exist after 2016 in this scenario?

Oh, no, I merely do not wish to write a story based solely on fiction.

[Yates]

I'm guessing America ceases to exist after 2016 in this scenario?

Oh, no, I merely do not wish to write a story based solely on fiction.

Those are the most fun to write though.

Maybe I'll give it a try.

[Yates]

Haha.

[Yates]

Let's have some fun.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This preview is acceptable for all audiences.

“THIS IS GREAT.” – ANDREW BERGER

“SO FAR, SO GOOD.” – MIKE NASO

“OOOHHH, IT’S LOOKING GOOD.” – ANDREWCT

After the grueling primary process. . .

. . .comes the general election.

On the political battlefield, there are no civilians.

On the political battlefield, there is no mercy.

On the political battlefield, there is no surrender.

THE REPUBLICAN



“YOU WANT FOUR MORE YEARS, YOU’RE GONNA GET IT!”

THE DEMOCRAT



“The future of America is at stake.  Which path do you want?”

A PATH TO BE DETERMINED. . .

A CHOICE TO BE MADE. . .

AND AN OCTOBER SURPRISE THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING.

America: 2000-2016
Election 2004: Part III

Coming soon to a What-if forum near you.

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part III will be finished with tonight, and may require more than one post.  After the completion of Part III, Election Night 2004 will begin, and I am considering doing it "real time."

[Yates]

I am considering doing it "real time."

24 style, maybe some explosions see Roy Barnes torturing some people, you could even get Polish actor to play an Arab terrorist like he always does.

What do you mean by "real time" though?

Haha.

What I mean is this:

Election coverage starts at 7:00 P.M. with the first two states being called.  In real time, I would call Indiana and Kentucky at 7, the other states at their respective times, basically replicating actual election night coverage.

[Yates]

I am considering doing it "real time."

24 style, maybe some explosions see Roy Barnes torturing some people, you could even get Polish actor to play an Arab terrorist like he always does.

What do you mean by "real time" though?

Haha.

What I mean is this:

Election coverage starts at 7:00 P.M. with the first two states being called.  In real time, I would call Indiana and Kentucky at 7, the other states at their respective times, basically replicating actual election night coverage.

If you want to make it really real time, you could simulate really close states by having it too close to call when polls close and then have the states get called later.

Yes, I was planning to do that.

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part III will be posted tonight, before 11.  Tomorrow, Election Night will probably be done real time.

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part III

Both the Republican and Democratic conventions are viewed as successful.  The Republican convention focused on national security, with constant references to September 11th.  The Democratic convention focused on the failures of the Bush Administration, as well as policies Governor Barnes would pursue as President.

September 10th
Rasmussen Reports
Nationwide Poll

Bush Solid: 99
Bush Total: 153
Tossup: 23
Barnes Total: 362
Barnes Solid: 183

On September 13th, President Bush, in a press conference in the Rose Garden, announces that, after discussing the matter with military commanders, he will begin a full withdrawl from Iraq, to be completed by January 1st, 2006.  After this is announced, his approval rating climbs 15% overnight, and political analysts anticipate a shift in the polls.

Barnes responds strongly.  “The timing of this announcement is purely political,” he says.  “The President did not factor either the welfare of our brave troops or the security of our great country in the decision to make this withdrawl.  He’s behind in the polls, and he’s using desperate measures to get ahead.”

In early September, the Bush/Cheney campaign begins running ads across the nation depicting September 11th.  In the ad, Bush says, “Never forget those who died on September the 11th.  And never forget that the threat of another terrorist attack is here today.  If, God forbid, terrorists were to strike our nation again, I want to be the President that, once again, provides the strong leadership needed to bring our country through.”

The ad is decried by the Barnes/Clark campaign as being the epitome of scare tactics and as using the suffering of 9/11 for political gain.

In the first Presidential debate, focused on foreign policy, President Bush once again focuses on terrorism, while Governor Barnes sharply criticizes Bush’s handling of the Iraq conflict.  Snap polls after the debate find that Americans are split nearly evenly when asked who won the debate.  Political analysts attribute this to the fact that Barnes’ attacks on the Iraq War are no longer as effective after the President’s announcement of a full withdrawl within a year.

In the Vice Presidential debate, Lynne Cheney uses her skills as a former political debate show host and viciously attacks Barnes’ record as Governor of Georgia.  Because of this, Wes Clark finds himself having to spend most of his speaking time defending Barnes rather than attacking the Bush record.  Polls after the debate suggest that Lynne Cheney solidly won.

In the town hall Presidential debate, both Bush and Barnes appear likeable and conversational, and both effectively and earnestly answer the questions posed to them.  Polls show that Barnes came out of the debate as the perceived winner, however.

In the final Presidential debate, focusing on domestic issues, Roy Barnes clearly is effective in attacking the state of the economy under President Bush.  Barnes also takes the time to unveil some of his detailed policies for expanding health care coverage and reforming the education system.  Barnes is regarded by a vast majority as the clear winner of this debate.

October 10th
Rasmussen Reports
Nationwide Poll

Bush Solid: 138
Bush Total: 176
Tossup: 79
Barnes Total: 283
Barnes Solid: 183

However, everything is about to change with, perhaps, the most unwelcome October surprise in history.

(continued below)

[Yates]

Notice: The events described below do not represent the desires nor the opinions of the author.

THE OCTOBER SURPRISE

October 23rd, 2004
Bloomington, Minnesota



At 11:13 A.M., when the mall was filled with shoppers, an unknown terrorist, disguised as a janitor, left one ton of explosives in the mall’s hub.  At 11:16 A.M., the explosives detonated.  A huge fireball swept up the mall’s main staircase, sending it crashing to the ground.  The sounds of screaming and shattering glass echoed across the entire mall as the fire bell rang, sending alarmed shoppers frantically running outside.  Police and fire rescue personnel were on the scene within minutes.

By late afternoon, the death toll was reported to be 231, mostly women and children, and the number was expected to rise.  That evening, all major television and radio networks dedicated their programming to mourning.

All campaign activities were suspended.  Both candidates flew at once to Bloomington to mourn on the site.  That night, at 10:30 P.M., President Bush gave a speech near the destroyed part of the mall.  In the speech, the President urged the nation to mourn with the families of those who were killed.  He also initiated a call for revenge.  “Yes, we must mourn,” said Bush.  “But we must also be more determined than ever before to rise up and show our true strength.”

Political polling the following day showed an overwhelming surge in the President’s approval rating.  In a written statement, Governor Barnes announced that he will not campaign for one week out of respect for those who are in the mourning process.  In the statement, he asked President Bush to do the same.

The Bush/Cheney campaign, two days after the tragedy, began running television spots in several states in which Bush was seen giving his speech at the Mall of America.  State polls showed Bush surging.  Political analyst James Carville stated, “President Bush’s message has been all about terrorism.  I think this attack proves that his message is an important one, and I think it’ll carry him to victory.”

One week later, Roy Barnes and Wes Clark hit the campaign trail.  In a widely publicized speech, Barnes said, “Yes, we mourn.  Yes, we need to keep ourselves safe.  From the moment I’m sworn into office, I will do whatever it takes to find those responsible for this and have them killed.  I will not hesitate to wait for world approval.  I will use overwhelming force against nations which harbor these terrorists, and I will not stop until I know that you, the American people, are safe.”

With days until the election, Bush has closed the gap.  On the day before the election, the race is up in the air.

November 1st, 2004
Rasmussen Reports
Nationwide Poll

Bush Solid: 163
Bush Total: 217
Tossup: 93
Barnes Total: 228
Barnes Solid: 183

“This election is up in the air.” – James Carville

“At this point, it’s anyone’s guess.” – Joe Trippi

“Tomorrow, the American people will vote for strength in a dangerous world.” – George W. Bush

“It’s time to have an end to the fear and begin a new era of hope.” – Roy Barnes

ELECTION NIGHT 2004
TOMORROW

[Yates]

I see your point.  Before 9/11, the President's approval rating was in the 40%-50% range, and rose roughly 40% after 9/11.  In this scenario, the President's approval rating is roughly 30%.  I do not believe that the approval rating would take such a large jump if a terrorist attack had happened before.

[Yates]

EXIT POLLS

Which issue was most important to you when voting today?
Terrorism: 36%
Iraq: 31%
Economy: 18%
Social Issues: 10%
Other: 5%

How recently did you decide which candidate to vote for?
Over one month ago: 35%
Over one week ago: 29%
Within the past week: 24%
In the voting booth: 12%

What is your education level?
Some high school: 8%
High School/G.E.D.: 19%
Some college: 13%
College degree: 35%
Master's degree: 11%
Doctorate: 6%
Professional degree: 9%