Vosem
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Posts: 15,635
Political Matrix E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2010, 04:52:10 PM » |
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« Edited: December 29, 2010, 07:13:59 PM by Vosem »
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You know, rereading the beginning of the timeline, I just realized you never posted results for the 2000 or 2002 Senate elections. Since Bush did better than OTL in 2000, I decided it was logical Republicans would also do better downballot; since Roy Barnes is reelected, it must follow that Democrats did better than OTL in 2002, as well.
I came to the conclusion that the following five races that went Democratic IOTL went Republican in your timeline: that in Florida Bill McCollum defeated Bill Nelson; that in Michigan Spencer Abraham defeated Debbie Stabenow; that in Nebraska Don Stenberg defeated Ben Nelson; that in New Jersey Bob Franks defeated Jon Corzine; and that in Washington Slade Gorton defeated Maria Cantwell.
Since 5 Republicans were elected in 2000 that weren't OTL, five Democrats in 2002 are needed to balance this out. Therefore; I conclude that in Colorado Tom Strickland defeated Wayne Allard; that in Georgia Max Cleland defeated Saxby Chambliss; that in Minnesota Paul Wellstone defeated Norm Coleman (obvious since Wellstone was a candidate in '08); that in Missouri Jean Carnahan defeated Jim Talent; and that in New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen defeated John Sununu.
You specified the results in 2004; but alternate results in 2000 would result in alternate results in 2006. You only said that Harold Ford, Jr. was elected in Tennessee and Mike Ciresi was reelected in Minnesota; you do not specify any other non-OTL results in 2006, but merely state that seven Democratic pickups occurred. Missouri is held by Jean Carnahan. We can have the other five pickups from OTL, plus Ford; we need only one extra. We can have McCollum, Gorton, Stenberg, and Abraham be reelected; our alt-N.J. Senator, Bob Franks, was suffering from cancer by 2006 (he died from it earlier this year); let's say Thomas Kean Jr. was elected to his seat after his retirement. As for that extra Democratic pickup...let's say Craig Thomas dies a couple months early, and the voters, rather than elect a dead man, in a huge fluke, elect Democrat Dale Groutage a Senator from Wyoming.
Can all this be canon?
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