Year in Review: U.S House races part 2

[MarkWarner08]

Most amateurish attack from a sitting Congressman:
     1. GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson’s  annoying “Stender the Spender” attack.  Ferguson’s campaign ran TV, radio and newspaper ads attacking Linda Stender’ support for tax increased. The ads backfired by giving name recognition to an otherwise little known opponent. Since Stender couldn’t afford TV in the expensive NY market, she relied on her opponent to raise her name recognition. In Ferguson ‘s last internal poll, he led by 7 points; on Election day, he won by 1.8%.

2.   Rep. Jon Porter’s “moving ad.” Rep. Porter ran a TV ad that claimed his opponent was a carpetbagger moving to NV-03 just to run for Congress. This ad was ironic because Hafen has lived in Nevada for a longer time thatn Porter. Hafen used the ad to gain sympathy from voter. Hafen’s under funded campaign lost by just 1%.

3.   While Ferguson and Porter failed in their separate attempts to lost reelection,  Charles Taylor was indeed successful in costing himself a seat. While the ad likely made no difference in the campaign, it did epitomize what was wrong with Rep Taylor’s campaign. The ad featured d a dump truck pouring garbage on a lonely Taylor for Congress sign. This ad’s pathetically low production values contrasted poorly with heath Shuler’s TV ads.

Luckiest Republican Congressman:
1.   Tom Reynolds: In a year of weather analogies, we find a Congressman who’s career was saved by weather. After  the Mark Foley scandal struck, Reynolds race was reclassified by CQ from Likely Republican to Leans Democratic. Reynolds involvement in the Foley coverup left him reeling. Then a rare October snowstorm struck. Reynolds immediately  sprung into action, quickly securing funds from his perch on the Ways and Means Committee to help with the cleanup efforts. In an instant, Foley was forgotten an d Reynolds was hero.
2.   Robin Hayes. Despite sitting in the second most Democratic House seat occupied by a Republican in the South, Hayes was able to stay below the radar of the national Democrats. Hayes outspent his opponent $2.4million to $440K. Despite losing 6 of 10 counties in the District, Hayes survived by a margin of 50.14%-48.86%, which was one of the 5 closest house races in the last 15 years.
3.   A tie between James Walsh and Jon Porter. This Congressman ware both in very competitive districts but were blessed with third tier challengers. Had they been facing tougher opponents they both would have lost

Unluckiest Republican Congressman:
1.   Jim Ryan: How many pundits in early 2006 thought that Jim Ryan could lose reelection? The lack of attention to this race was warranted by the Ryan’s 15% victory in 2004 over a Democrat named Nancy Boyda who spent over $1million.  In 2006, Ryan faced the same Democrat with one major difference --- Nancy Boyda raised half of what she raised in 2004. Boyda’s faltering campaign, which was taken over midyear by her lawyer husband Steve Boyd, was saved in late October by a $650k ad buy from the DCCC. Without that cash, Ryan would likely have narrowly won like Jon Porter or Jim Walsh
2.   Jim Leach. How could an affable, bookish Congressman who voted against the War in Iraq be vulnerable to a Democrat who barely raised any money? The reason was voter registration, Leach’s overwhelmingly  Democratic district no longer felt conformable electing a liberal like Leach because of Rep. Leach’s membership in the Republican Party.
3.  A tie between Charlie Bass and Henry Bonilla. These two Congressman each faced matchups  against second tier Democrats who were too liberal for their respective districts. Both Democrats were bailed out by $1,000,000 plus ad buys from the DCCC. Neither Bonilla nor Bass expected to lose, and certainly nearly expected to lose by 8% to Democrats who were not top tier challengers.

Most overhyped Congressional challengers:
1.   Ken Lucas: The DCCC wasted $3 million trying to prop up the septuagenarian former congressman running a the most conservative district in Kentucky.
2.   2. Patty Wetterling. The child advocate  received fewer votes against Michelle Bachmann than she won against Mark Kennedy
3.    Tammy Duckworth. ‘nuff said.

Most underhyped Congressional challengers:
1.   Tim Walz: The teacher, the coach, the all-American hero who served in the military.  Walz was the perfect candidate for Congress who shocked nearly everyone by not only beating a 6 term Republican Congressman, but doing so in convincing fashion.
2.    Jerry McNerney: His 39% showing in 2004 may not have seemed impressive, but it was striking for a candidate who barely raised any money against a Committee Chairmen. McNerney’s grass roots campaign was led by San Francisco liberals eager to knock off “enemy of the  Earth” Rep. Richard Pombo.
3.    Carol Shea-Porter: She wasn’t even the favorite to win her own party’s primary. The a plucky pacifist  led a grassroots army on a $200,000 budget to victory over a two term Republican Congressman.


Most likely to be the next Michael Flanagan or David Funderbunk:
1.   Nick Lampson
2.   Zach Space
3.   Chris Carney
Honorable mention: Nancy Boyda and Tim Mahoney

[bullmoose88]

Most Unlucky Republican Congressman
4. Mike Fitzpatrick. Pretty popular but went down in a Bush referendum.

Underhyped Dem
4. Patrick Murphy. Didn't get hyped until very late and even then most people werent looking at this race out side of PA-8

[Deano963]

You're right on about everything except for Zach Space. He is not a sure bet to lose in '08.

[Padfoot]

I think Zach Space could be harder to crack than people think.  Traditionally when Ohio swings to the Democrats it is the Southeast and Appalachian areas of the state that cause the shift.  (Look at Clinton's wins here for further proof.)  OH-18 (Space's district) takes in much of this area.  Take a look at the 2006 Senate results:


Now, here's the counties in Space's district (pictured with 2006 Senate results).  Counties with black dots are not contained entirely within OH-18.


Population of counties (as of 2000) that voted for Sherrod Brown:

Athens (part): 18,656
Belmont (part): 15,048
Carrol: 28,836
Coshocton: 36,655
Guernsey: 40,792
Harrison: 15,856
Hocking: 28,241
Jackson: 32,641
Morgan: 14,897
Muskingum: 84,585
Ross(part): 59,346
Tuscarawas: 90,914
Vinton: 12,806

Population of counties (as of 2000) that voted for Mike DeWine:

Holmes: 38,943
Knox: 54,500
Licking (part): 58,014

If Space can tap into the same message that carried Brown to victory in this area he could ecke out a victory in 2008.

[Gabu]

Considering that Zach won with 62% of the vote, I'm curious why I see his name so many times on the "most vulnerable in 2008" lists.  He must have something going for him to have done that well.

[Padfoot]

People assume that since his predecessor Bob Ney was one of the "corruption 5" this district will automatcally flip back in 2008.  What they fail to realize is that the area within the 18th is more politically competitive than districts like TX-22 or FL-16.  If Republicans think OH-18 is going to be an easy victory in 2008 they have another thing coming, especially if Ohio falls in the Democrat's column for president.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Considering that Zach won with 62% of the vote, I'm curious why I see his name so many times on the "most vulnerable in 2008" lists.  He must have something going for him to have done that well.

Mostly because his opponent was a big Taft croney.

But I agree Space is likely to hang on in 2008. His district is rather similar to the one Strickland represented until 2002, so the area is certainly capable of electing a Democrat. And Space is a great campaigner and very likable guy, probably why he managed to come out of nowhere to win the primary. I even bet that Space would've won the seat if Ney had simply retired without scandal (mostly due to Taft and the national environment, but it certainly wasn't due to scandal alone). From what I've heard the GOP doesn't even have any strong candidates in the district who aren't tainted by Taft/Blackwell/Ney connections, so that's also going for him.

I think Carney is far more vulnerable, considering he had a huge lead almost the whole campaign and still only beat that piece of human trash Sherwood by 6 points.

[Gabu]

Mostly because his opponent was a big Taft croney.

Sure, but Ney won with 66% of the vote in 2004.  That's a 28% shift to the Democratic candidate.  Even if Ney was a Taft croney, I'm still looking at the fact that Zach broke 60% of the vote.  That's a feat repeated in very few Democratic pickups of 2006.

[Padfoot]

Mostly because his opponent was a big Taft croney.

Sure, but Ney won with 66% of the vote in 2004.  That's a 28% shift to the Democratic candidate.  Even if Ney was a Taft croney, I'm still looking at the fact that Zach broke 60% of the vote.  That's a feat repeated in very few Democratic pickups of 2006.

Space's opponent wasn't Ney, it was Joy Padgette.  She too was a Taft croney and a severely flawed candidate.  First off, Ney named her as his prefered succesor before the primary.  Second, she was once part of the much hated Taft team, and thirdly she and her husband filed for bankruptcy when their business tanked.  Having said that, please see my arguements above as to why Space shouldn't have too much trouble hanging on to his seat in 2008.

[MarkWarner08]

Here's something else to ponder. Did gerrymandering nearly save the House for the GOP?  Take a look at OH-15, NY-25 and NY-26 and then compare those districts to KY-03. All four districts are centered around urban areas and each include close divided surburban areas around the city.

The Republican incumbent won in  OH-15, NY-25 and NY-26  by 50-50, 51-49 and 52-48 respectively. The Democrat won in KY-03 by 51-28 over a GOP incumbent. What was the difference? The one thing that set the three districts that were gerrymandered and the other that was fairly drawn apart was the inclusion of barely connected, heavily Republican precincts or the exclusion of obvious liberal precincts.

NY-25's major population area is the City of Syracuse. The two counties with and around Syracuse gave the Democrat a 1,508 vote lead, or a 50-50 advantage over the Republican. The reason the Democrat lost was due to the adding of conservative Wayne and Cayuga counties which gave the Republican a 5429 vote lead If these counties had been replaced by more marginal areas, the Democrats would have won.

NY-26 stayed Republican because the incumbent protection redistricting plan in New York remove urban Buffalo from Rep. Tom Reynolds district. This deprived the Democrat of a solid vote base.

OH-15 is the quintessential example of gerrymandering saving an incumbent in a tough year. Deborah Pryce was the most vulnerable Republican congresswoman in Ohio. She was running against a well-funded opponent, in a Democratic trending district, in a bad year for Republicans nationally and especially in Ohio and she had been tied to the Foley scandal. Her opponent received 52% of the vote in urban Franklin County. This gave the Democrat a solid 7,553 vote lead. Pryce was saved by the inclusion of Union County and Madison County into the district by Republican gerrymanderers. These two counties gave the Republican an 8544 vote edge, which erased the Democrat's lead.

Had it not been for savvy gerrymandering, at least three more Republicans would be packing up their belongings and heading for K Street.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's something else to ponder. Did gerrymandering nearly save the House for the GOP?  Take a look at OH-15, NY-25 and NY-26 and then compare those districts to KY-03. All four districts are centered around urban areas and each include close divided surburban areas around the city.

The Republican incumbent won in  OH-15, NY-25 and NY-26  by 50-50, 51-49 and 52-48 respectively. The Democrat won in KY-03 by 51-28 over a GOP incumbent. What was the difference? The one thing that set the three districts that were gerrymandered and the other that was fairly drawn apart was the inclusion of barely connected, heavily Republican precincts or the exclusion of obvious liberal precincts.

NY-25's major population area is the City of Syracuse. The two counties with and around Syracuse gave the Democrat a 1,508 vote lead, or a 50-50 advantage over the Republican. The reason the Democrat lost was due to the adding of conservative Wayne and Cayuga counties which gave the Republican a 5429 vote lead If these counties had been replaced by more marginal areas, the Democrats would have won.

NY-26 stayed Republican because the incumbent protection redistricting plan in New York remove urban Buffalo from Rep. Tom Reynolds district. This deprived the Democrat of a solid vote base.

OH-15 is the quintessential example of gerrymandering saving an incumbent in a tough year. Deborah Pryce was the most vulnerable Republican congresswoman in Ohio. She was running against a well-funded opponent, in a Democratic trending district, in a bad year for Republicans nationally and especially in Ohio and she had been tied to the Foley scandal. Her opponent received 52% of the vote in urban Franklin County. This gave the Democrat a solid 7,553 vote lead. Pryce was saved by the inclusion of Union County and Madison County into the district by Republican gerrymanderers. These two counties gave the Republican an 8544 vote edge, which erased the Democrat's lead.

Had it not been for savvy gerrymandering, at least three more Republicans would be packing up their belongings and heading for K Street.

I agree, except it's also worth mentioning that Kilroy was a very boring speaker .

[MarkWarner08]

Congressman most likely to win the Ted Strickland or David Price award for political comeback:

1. Rob Simmons: What did he do wrong besides becoming a Republican?
2. Anne Northup: Well-liked pol who lost because of the climate
3. Jeb Bradley: If Carol Shea-Porter goes Martin Hoke (read about Hoke here:http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_n6_v46/ai_14987634) oon us, Uncle Jeb will be here to take the amateur's seat away
4. Melissa Hart: Another example of a victim of the wave who's still personally popular
5. Mike Fitzpatrick: Just like Simmons, Northup and Hart.