Which battle-tested Republican incumbents will lose in 2008?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:22:36 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Which battle-tested Republican incumbents will lose in 2008?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Which battle-tested Republican incumbents will lose in 2008?
#1
Chris Shays
 
#2
Jim Gerlach
 
#3
Heather Wilson
 
#4
Dave Reichert
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 26

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Which battle-tested Republican incumbents will lose in 2008?  (Read 2954 times)
nini2287
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,616


Political Matrix
E: 2.77, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 25, 2006, 02:25:44 AM »

Out of the Republican incumbents who seem to barely win every election, who will lose in 2008?

I'm betting on a Reichert loss, I think the others will be safe.
Logged
Padfoot
padfoot714
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,531
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2006, 02:32:21 AM »

I would say they are all in serious jeopardy and I would go on to include my own Rep. Deborah Pryce in that list.  The Democrats will be targeting these types of districts in order to offset the likely loss of some of their "scandal wins."  In a presidential year with a good candidate and a Democratic wind blowing, the coattails will be hard to overcome.  Barring a Republican surge in the next two years I wouldn't be surprised if these Representatives were selling their DC homes after November 2008.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 25, 2006, 09:53:48 AM »

Unless she faces another joke, Heather Wilson will lose. Shays will struggle without Lieberman and in a Presidential year. Reichert doesn't seem like a very good campaigner. Gerlach is the most likely to hold on.
Logged
Adlai Stevenson
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,403
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 25, 2006, 11:02:46 AM »

I voted Gerlach and Reichert, although its not unimagineable to see all of them going down.  Heather Wilson is the most talented campaigner and incumbent of them all, IMO.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 25, 2006, 11:32:57 AM »

None.  2006 was the basement, like 1994 for the Democrats; now the GOP will make gains in the House.
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,137
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2006, 12:54:25 AM »

I think it depends on who are the candidates of the respective parties for president, as well as how the democratic congress does in the next 2 years. Bush will still be unpopular.

I think Wilson will be vulnerable; Shays's seat is his until he dies or retires, but the Democrats will try to take it nonetheless.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2006, 12:57:55 AM »

I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2006, 12:59:18 AM »

Wilson will likely go down because the NM Dem legislature is redistricting to throw in a few more heavily Hispanic communities into her district (pulling a Tom Delay). That would be great if she somehow survived though. The others will win.
Logged
ndcohn
Rookie
**
Posts: 24


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2006, 01:07:54 AM »

reichert will be tough - his popularity in key swing areas of the district is shocking [he "caught" the green river killer and has decades old relationships]. I think it will take a candidate with strong name recognition, a strong base, and some experience to defeat reichert. I vote Gerlach - on the assumption that the next Democratic candidate doesn't run a hyper mediated campaign like murphy
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,693
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2006, 02:00:44 PM »

I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.

Only one that's possible is Walsh. I'm still wondering how Kuhl was even vulnerable, that's a very safe Republican district, even in a year like that. And Reynolds was only vulnerable because of Foley, he also has a very solidly Republican district (not all that conservative, but quite Republican)

Walsh on the other hand, is probably done if he faces a rather strong candidate. Maffei wasn't all that great.

As far as the poll goes:

-Wilson is safe, unless the redistricting happens.
-Shays might be in trouble, Lieberman and Rell gave CT Republicans a boost. Lamont is considering a run too.
-Reichert is far too right wing for his district, but he's a good campaigner and has a base of popularity. It'll take an exceptionally strong candidate to take him out, although neither Ross or Burner was all that strong.
-Gerlach also needs a fairly strong candidate. But being a presidential year will hurt him.
Logged
Galactic Overlord
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 364


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2006, 12:27:22 AM »

I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.

Only one that's possible is Walsh. I'm still wondering how Kuhl was even vulnerable, that's a very safe Republican district, even in a year like that. And Reynolds was only vulnerable because of Foley, he also has a very solidly Republican district (not all that conservative, but quite Republican)

Walsh on the other hand, is probably done if he faces a rather strong candidate. Maffei wasn't all that great.

Kuhl performed rather weakly in his initial election with only 51%, though a Conservative Party candidate siphoned off 6%. Reynolds also was held to 55% in 2004 by Jack Davis. I don't know why these two didn't perform as they should prior to 2006, though.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2006, 12:56:43 AM »

I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.

Only one that's possible is Walsh. I'm still wondering how Kuhl was even vulnerable, that's a very safe Republican district, even in a year like that. And Reynolds was only vulnerable because of Foley, he also has a very solidly Republican district (not all that conservative, but quite Republican)

Kohl is a wife-beater. It may be NY's most conservative district, but that's still hurting him. Reynolds saved his ass by playing that blizzard for every ounce it was worth. That blizzard and bad weather on election day may have helped the other 2 as well. Reynolds' had a lazy opponent.

The current districts in NY had 11 districts designed for Republicans. 3 incumbent and 2 open seats have since flipped to the Democrats. It's not unreasonable to expect the 3 who barely won this time to be vulnerable in 2008.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2006, 02:13:58 AM »


Where did you hear this?  That would be cool.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,693
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2006, 02:42:24 AM »

One of the CT posters said it, the guy who changes his avatar a lot.
Logged
AndrewTX
AndrewCT
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,091


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2006, 08:53:18 AM »

I doubt that Lamont will run. If he does, Chris will still manage to beat him.

 I say Wilson will be the next to go down.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2006, 10:12:25 AM »

 I hope Shays wins!
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,693
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 28, 2006, 11:42:28 AM »


Change your avatar.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 29, 2006, 12:19:35 PM »


But regester Democrat when I can vote, right?
Logged
MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,812


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2006, 07:17:11 PM »

Joe Knollenberg is a likely candidate to lose or retire in 2008. He only won reelection by 51%-46% despite outspending his opponent $2.8 million to $400 K. This Oakland COunty based district is trending Democratic. Knollenberg could be another Phil Crane or Curt Weldon -- a long time Congressman who's not a great campaigner.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.245 seconds with 15 queries.