Mason-Dixon in Colorado

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From today's Hotline:

  A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 6/15-18/04; surveyed 800 regis. voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (Denver Post, 6/28).

For this poll, the sample was made up of 41%R, 36%D, 23%I/Other

In '00, the state's electorate broke down 33%R, 37%D, 30%I/Other.

General Election Matchup
       All  Dem  GOP  Ind  Men  Wom  Wht  Blk  Hisp.
Bush   48%  15%  81%  44%  51%  45%  52%   7%  31%
Kerry  43   77   13   43   41   45   40   78   54
Nader   3    3    2    3    3    3    3    3    1
Undec.  6    5    4   10    5    7    5   11   14


In the Senate Race:

GOP Primary Matchup        Dem Primary Matchup
             All Fav/Unfav              All  Fav/Unfav
Coors      39% 31%/28%       Salazar    61%  44%/18%
Schaeffer  35  23 /19           Miles      15   13 /10
DK/Undec.  26                    DK/Undec.  24

General Matchups
Salazar   47%      Salazar    49%     Coors    45%      Schaffer   43%
Coors     40          Schaffer   35      Miles    30         Miles      29
Undec.    13        Undec.     16      Undec.   25         Undec.     28


Vorlon, what's your take on the Party ID make-up of this poll?

[elcorazon]

paging vorlon...

it looks to me like Colorado is legitimately in play, strongly leaning Bush, but worth some Kerry effort, anyway.

[MODU]

Vorlon,

Just noticed that you updated your projection recently.  PA and OR for Bush?  A bit generous, don't you think?  

[The Vorlon]

Party ID in Colorado:

GOP 37%
Dems 30%
Indys 32%

Men/Women good...
White/Black/Hispanic right on.. (Hispanic 1% high => irrelevant)

Bush won by 8.36% in 2000

In this sample, they voted +9 for Bush, dead on again

If I wanted to be super picky... this poll is barely too democratic and maybe a point too hispanic.. but this is an unstratified random sample...

This sample is way way within MOE on every validity check I could run.

Somebody should take this poll, frame it, and send it to the LA Times as a example to shoot for.

They did a hell of a job on this poll... this thing is dead on IMHO.



Link To Story

Link to .pfd of release

Vorlon,

Just noticed that you updated your projection recently.  PA and OR for Bush?  A bit generous, don't you think?  

I have Bush a huge 0.2% "ahead" in Pennsylvania

- it's a tie right now.

Oregon is also basically a tie.  My model is partly driven of National polling results, and Bush is up a tad Nationally which drives up his state numbers a bit.

Both states are tied, but I call 'em all