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« Reply #25 on: June 29, 2004, 11:50:29 am »
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If Jackson gets the rest he needs, when does he have time to launch the attack?

In the event of a complete federal collapse on the pennisula, there is no way that Lincoln would have let Pope take the Army of Virginia out of the Washington defenses.  If Lincoln had a fault in this war, it was that he was overly protective of Washington, but with good reason.  Also Lee would not have captured the artillery train intact, altho the Union could have been compelled to destroy it to prevent its capture.  Yes, Lee could have conducted a raid into the north, but his own supply situation could not have allowed him to hold territory there. Lack of ammunition would compel him to return south of the Potomac and he could not have carried off much in the way of other supplies with his army.

Finally, what does recognition gain the CSA?  Not much.  Neither England or France would have actually gone to war over cotton.  It would have made it easier for the CSA to buy naval raiders from the Liverpool shipyards, but the ones they did buy were enough to force most of the US merchant fleet to fly to other flags.  Before the Civil War the US merchant fleet was the largest in the world.  It never recovered that lost position after the War.
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« Reply #26 on: June 29, 2004, 11:53:56 am »
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If Jackson gets the rest he needs, when does he have time to launch the attack?

In the event of a complete federal collapse on the pennisula, there is no way that Lincoln would have let Pope take the Army of Virginia out of the Washington defenses.  If Lincoln had a fault in this war, it was that he was overly protective of Washington, but with good reason.  Also Lee would not have captured the artillery train intact, altho the Union could have been compelled to destroy it to prevent its capture.  Yes, Lee could have conducted a raid into the north, but his own supply situation could not have allowed him to hold territory there. Lack of ammunition would compel him to return south of the Potomac and he could not have carried off much in the way of other supplies with his army.

Finally, what does recognition gain the CSA?  Not much.  Neither England or France would have actually gone to war over cotton.  It would have made it easier for the CSA to buy naval raiders from the Liverpool shipyards, but the ones they did buy were enough to force most of the US merchant fleet to fly to other flags.  Before the Civil War the US merchant fleet was the largest in the world.  It never recovered that lost position after the War.

The CS Navy sunk more tonnage per ship then any other navy in modern history.
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« Reply #27 on: June 29, 2004, 12:01:59 pm »
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There is no dobut the CSA could have won the war at a number of points, but they would have done with a decivise victory where the "Army of the Potomac" was  totally destroyed, and a tactical victory that Lee gained at "2nd Bull Run", or Chancellorsville, or a defensive victory such as Fredricksburg.
The places where Lee could have destroyed the Union forces are quite various:
1) During the 7 days campaign as already described .
2) A complete win at "2nd Bull Run".
3) The "Lost Order " isnt lost.
4) Jackson isnt killed at Chancellorsville, and Stonewall reaches the US Mine Ford(a road to which he was looking for when he was shot by his own men).
5) Gettysburg.
As for what the CSA would have looked like I think it would had for certain the following states:
1) Alabama
2) Arkansas
3) Florida
4) Georgia
5) Louisinia
6) Mississippi
7) North Carolina
Cool South Carolina
9) Tennessee
10) Texas
11) Virginia
States I think would have joined the CSA.
1) Kentucky.
States that could have been divided between USA & CSA.
2) Missouri & Maryland.
Southern Missouri was very pro-CSA. As was parts of Maryland.
Territory that would have gone to the CSA.
1) The Indian Territory.(The current state of Oklahoma)
Territory that CSA might have got.
1) New Mexico Territory. (The current two states of New Mexico and Arizona).
Also Cuba I think would have gone to the CSA, and also to help bail out Emperor Max in Mexico the CSA might have gotten Territory there namely the states of Chinuahua and Sonora.

                                                                                                                                                                               
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« Reply #28 on: June 29, 2004, 12:34:24 pm »
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If Jackson rests what does the Union army do durign that time?  Withdraw to better ground and entrench, and more support comes up.

Gettysburg was a chance to defeat a Union army, but Lee never came close.  A lot of people say if he had put  2 more divisions into Pickett's Charge it would have worked.  Well, it would have broken the center, but the Union flanks would have collapsed on the breakthrough before it could be solidified since there would be no one locking them into place, which the 2 other divisions were doing in real life.
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« Reply #29 on: June 29, 2004, 12:52:00 pm »
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In 1862 Ohio Copperhead Clement Valandigam was banished to the Confederacy by order of President Lincoln. The Democrats in Ohio nominated him for Governor anyway.
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« Reply #30 on: June 29, 2004, 02:29:39 pm »
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The CSA could not win the war on the battlefield by 1862.  It had to win it by making the North feel that it was not worth continuing.  A single decisive battlefield victory that annihilated a Union army would not have done it.  Northern political resolve showed many times that it could rebound from despair caused by temporary Confederate high tides.  Making those tides higher would not have affected the ultimate outcome of the war.  You need to either have the Confederates take Washington in 1861 or have a different Republican win the presidency in 1860 to have any reasonable chance of Confederate independence.
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« Reply #31 on: June 29, 2004, 03:24:43 pm »
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There is no dobut the CSA could have won the war at a number of points, but they would have done with a decivise victory where the "Army of the Potomac" was  totally destroyed, and a tactical victory that Lee gained at "2nd Bull Run", or Chancellorsville, or a defensive victory such as Fredricksburg.
The places where Lee could have destroyed the Union forces are quite various:
1) During the 7 days campaign as already described .
2) A complete win at "2nd Bull Run".
3) The "Lost Order " isnt lost.
4) Jackson isnt killed at Chancellorsville, and Stonewall reaches the US Mine Ford(a road to which he was looking for when he was shot by his own men).
5) Gettysburg.
As for what the CSA would have looked like I think it would had for certain the following states:
1) Alabama
2) Arkansas
3) Florida
4) Georgia
5) Louisinia
6) Mississippi
7) North Carolina
Cool South Carolina
9) Tennessee
10) Texas
11) Virginia
States I think would have joined the CSA.
1) Kentucky.
States that could have been divided between USA & CSA.
2) Missouri & Maryland.
Southern Missouri was very pro-CSA. As was parts of Maryland.
Territory that would have gone to the CSA.
1) The Indian Territory.(The current state of Oklahoma)
Territory that CSA might have got.
1) New Mexico Territory. (The current two states of New Mexico and Arizona).
Also Cuba I think would have gone to the CSA, and also to help bail out Emperor Max in Mexico the CSA might have gotten Territory there namely the states of Chinuahua and Sonora.

                                                                                                                                                                               

The only way New Mexico would have ended up in Confederate hands would have been it Sibley hadn't been a damn fool and left his supply train unprotected at Glorieta.  If he hadn't, the Confederates may have even invaded Colorado.
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« Reply #32 on: June 29, 2004, 03:37:37 pm »
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The CSA could not win the war on the battlefield by 1862.  It had to win it by making the North feel that it was not worth continuing.  A single decisive battlefield victory that annihilated a Union army would not have done it.  Northern political resolve showed many times that it could rebound from despair caused by temporary Confederate high tides.  Making those tides higher would not have affected the ultimate outcome of the war.  You need to either have the Confederates take Washington in 1861 or have a different Republican win the presidency in 1860 to have any reasonable chance of Confederate independence.


Northern political resolve was sliping quite a bit.  It didn't really strengthen until after the Amancipation Proclimation, yeah, I know, my spelling is terrible.  I think that a decisive victory on PA soil in 1862, along with Bragg capturing Louisville would have tipped it.  You must remember, too, that European involvement was very likely before the AP.


I would contend that the Confederates could have one the war as late as 1864, but thier country would have been a disater and they would have lost Tennessee and and hope of getting Kentucky and the Indian Territory.
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« Reply #33 on: June 29, 2004, 03:43:48 pm »
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I agree that a decisve victory in which the main Union army is destroyed would have ended the war in the CSA favour. A win in Maryland or Penn in 1862 would have seen the French and British force a peace settlement.
A victory at Gettysburg was possable but not on the 3rd day with Picketts charge, that was always going to fail.
The best hope for Lee to win was on the 2nd day, by taking Little Round Top and outflanking the whole Union line, and dont forget that it was race for the Union to get troops on to that hill, and the race was won only by 10 minutes. If Warren had not spotted the weakness just say 5 minutes the battle could have well be a lot different.


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« Reply #34 on: June 29, 2004, 04:01:14 pm »
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I agree that a decisve victory in which the main Union army is destroyed would have ended the war in the CSA favour. A win in Maryland or Penn in 1862 would have seen the French and British force a peace settlement.
A victory at Gettysburg was possable but not on the 3rd day with Picketts charge, that was always going to fail.
The best hope for Lee to win was on the 2nd day, by taking Little Round Top and outflanking the whole Union line, and dont forget that it was race for the Union to get troops on to that hill, and the race was won only by 10 minutes. If Warren had not spotted the weakness just say 5 minutes the battle could have well be a lot different.




Gettysburg was winnable on day 1, but that was a long shot.  The belief that the Confederates could have easily taken the heights is unfounded.

Little Round Top was a close run, but would not have been a nail in the coffin.  The Union lines would have to put a barb on the fishook, but both sides would have been overstretched.  The forces on Little Round Top would have been vulnerable to being cut off from supply by a clever counter attack on their supply lines.  Could have gone either way.
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« Reply #35 on: June 29, 2004, 04:03:17 pm »
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I agree that a decisve victory in which the main Union army is destroyed would have ended the war in the CSA favour. A win in Maryland or Penn in 1862 would have seen the French and British force a peace settlement.
A victory at Gettysburg was possable but not on the 3rd day with Picketts charge, that was always going to fail.
The best hope for Lee to win was on the 2nd day, by taking Little Round Top and outflanking the whole Union line, and dont forget that it was race for the Union to get troops on to that hill, and the race was won only by 10 minutes. If Warren had not spotted the weakness just say 5 minutes the battle could have well be a lot different.




A war ending Confederate victory at Gettysburg was not possible.  Once Ewell made the decision not to attack the hieghts on Day 1, the Confederates lost thier chance.  The ANV would not have won the second day with out Pickett's division, plain and simple.  If Pickett would have arrived a day early and been part of the second day's attack, then the CSA would have met success.  But, that was quite impossible.
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« Reply #36 on: June 29, 2004, 04:06:48 pm »
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What I mean when I say the Confederate could not have one a war ending victory at Gettysburg is that, even if they had won on the first day, the Federal Army would have retreated back to Pipe Creek, per Meade's General Order #1.  So, if the Confederates had won, the decisive battle would have been fought else where.
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« Reply #37 on: June 29, 2004, 04:08:17 pm »
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Stonewall Jackson would had taken Culips Hill, he wouldnbt had stopped like Ewell, but again Gettysburg would have been a CSA win but NOT a decisive win in which the "Army of the Potomac" is destroyed.
What-if Hooker was still in control after all he was only sacked two days before the battle.
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« Reply #38 on: June 29, 2004, 04:11:05 pm »
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Stonewall Jackson would had taken Culips Hill, he wouldnbt had stopped like Ewell, but again Gettysburg would have been a CSA win but NOT a decisive win in which the "Army of the Potomac" is destroyed.
What-if Hooker was still in control after all he was only sacked two days before the battle.


Wouldn't have mattered much, because Hancock was the de facto commander anyway.  Meade was rather inconsequential.
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« Reply #39 on: June 29, 2004, 04:20:18 pm »
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I agree Hancock did a lot to win the battle, also here is another what-if , What-if John Reynolds was not killed on the 1st day- would he if he been alive on the 3rd day forced Meade into a counter-attack that could well have destroyed Lee. Hancock pushed for it- but Meade said no- but with Reynolds pushing for it as well he might have changed his mind.
I do think the CSA could have won the war of that there is no dobut, it is just where and when?
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« Reply #40 on: June 29, 2004, 05:06:33 pm »
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I agree Hancock did a lot to win the battle, also here is another what-if , What-if John Reynolds was not killed on the 1st day- would he if he been alive on the 3rd day forced Meade into a counter-attack that could well have destroyed Lee. Hancock pushed for it- but Meade said no- but with Reynolds pushing for it as well he might have changed his mind.
I do think the CSA could have won the war of that there is no dobut, it is just where and when?


2nd Bull Run/Manassas was the last real chance.  Once the Emancipation Procolation was in place Britain would be hard pressed to support the slave holding south.

A French/British declaration of war would have been a disaster, for the South.  Draft riots would have ended in about 15 minutes.   The papers would hve screamed the secession and war was a foreign plot to divide the nation.

They would have likely opened up trade to the Confederacy lifting the blockade and would have tried a raid on either DC or NY.  This would have taught them a very harsh lesson: Never send a blue water navy up against a brown water navy in brown water.  The Royal Navy would be deprived of its biggest advantages and fight a force equal in size in the oppositions home waters.  The RN was good, but not that good.

After that it comes down to what the RN does, supply the Suoth or Canada.  If they supply the South, the Union can maintain a defensiv position while picking apart Canada.  If they supply Canada the South is overwhelemd byt he much larger Union army and the US and UK sign a white peace after a while.

Even if the RN contents itself with lifting the blockade the Union will be able to raise troops and keep them supplied far easier than the South.



France, at this point, was a non factor.  They could barely hold Mexico, let alone intervene north of the border.
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« Reply #41 on: June 29, 2004, 05:21:58 pm »
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I agree that a decisve victory in which the main Union army is destroyed would have ended the war in the CSA favour. A win in Maryland or Penn in 1862 would have seen the French and British force a peace settlement.
Force?  It may well have brought about official recignition for the CSA, but there is no way either would jave been willing to go to war, especially since before they could consider it, the Emancipation Proclaimation would have been made.  Britain needed Northern corn far more than it needed Southern cotton.  Aside from making the naval war a bit more difficult for the Union, foreign recognition would not have gained the Confederacy anything.  If they had gone to war, well, our flag would have a few more stars on it than iyt currently does, depending upon how British North America was split up into states.  (Might have also added part of the Empire of Mexico depending upon how acquisitive we felt like being.)  The Union never did fully mobilize for war in the Civil War, it never needed to.
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« Reply #42 on: June 29, 2004, 06:48:50 pm »
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I think that the Confederates' main plan by 1864 was to just hold out until the presidential election when Lincoon would be gone and some Peace Democrats would step into the White House, and give Jeff Davis and Confederates freedom from the Union.

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« Reply #43 on: June 29, 2004, 08:11:17 pm »
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I agree Hancock did a lot to win the battle, also here is another what-if , What-if John Reynolds was not killed on the 1st day- would he if he been alive on the 3rd day forced Meade into a counter-attack that could well have destroyed Lee. Hancock pushed for it- but Meade said no- but with Reynolds pushing for it as well he might have changed his mind.
I do think the CSA could have won the war of that there is no dobut, it is just where and when?


2nd Bull Run/Manassas was the last real chance.  


Noooo.  War Weariness equals Linocoln getting voted out.  This notion that the North was massively united behind the war is just a fairl-tale taught to make the north look all good and the south look all bad.  There were draft riots and papers that were harshly critical of Lincoln, anti-war demonstrations and other things in the north through out the war.
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« Reply #44 on: June 29, 2004, 08:23:08 pm »
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A bit more war weariness and there might have been a few more states run like Indiana, but unless Southern Arnies could stay in Kentucky or  Pennsylvania instead of merely making raids into them, it wouldn't amount to enough to cause the war to be lost. The South did not have the logistical capability to do maintain large armies in the field far from the railroads.
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« Reply #45 on: June 29, 2004, 08:23:41 pm »
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I agree Hancock did a lot to win the battle, also here is another what-if , What-if John Reynolds was not killed on the 1st day- would he if he been alive on the 3rd day forced Meade into a counter-attack that could well have destroyed Lee. Hancock pushed for it- but Meade said no- but with Reynolds pushing for it as well he might have changed his mind.
I do think the CSA could have won the war of that there is no dobut, it is just where and when?


2nd Bull Run/Manassas was the last real chance.  


Noooo.  War Weariness equals Linocoln getting voted out.  This notion that the North was massively united behind the war is just a fairl-tale taught to make the north look all good and the south look all bad.  There were draft riots and papers that were harshly critical of Lincoln, anti-war demonstrations and other things in the north through out the war.

I know all about that, and it was a piss-poor strategy.   The North was not united, but the chance of it flying apart was slim to none.  

Just look at teh result of the 1864 election: Lincoln won the popular vote by a hair over 10%.  There were many people against the war, but not nearly enough to for ce Lincoln's hand.  Once the Confederacy failed to threaten Washington D.C. after 2nd BUll Run and Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclomation the war became more popular in many areas of society.

The war weariness "strategy" was really a desperate last prayer after the failure of Gettysburg and Vicksburg.  They hoped that if they could hold out maybe the North would abandon the war effort.  By then it was far too late.
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« Reply #46 on: June 29, 2004, 08:26:56 pm »
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A bit more war weariness and there might have been a few more states run like Indiana, but unless Southern Arnies could stay in Kentucky or  Pennsylvania instead of merely making raids into them, it wouldn't amount to enough to cause the war to be lost. The South did not have the logistical capability to do maintain large armies in the field far from the railroads.

McClellan believed that he was massively out numbered by the south and a lot of people believed him.  Add that onto the people who were against the war.  Then consider that Lee had no intention to simply raid the north, he intended to defeat the Union army decisively and capture Baltimore or Philadelphia.
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« Reply #47 on: June 29, 2004, 09:52:03 pm »
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The only way New Mexico would have ended up in Confederate hands would have been it Sibley hadn't been a damn fool and left his supply train unprotected at Glorieta.  If he hadn't, the Confederates may have even invaded Colorado.

Good to see someone remembers the New Mexico Campaign! Smiley Sibley was pushing his luck in any event - Canby (sp?) still held Fort Craig along his supply line/return route along the Rio Grande to the south, the Colorado forces were still intact after Glorieta and could fall back on Fort Union, and let's not forget the Californians making their way east toward El Paso, or the Missouri/Kansas forces being assembled to head to New Mexico. Even if they had managed to protect their supply train (holding all of Sibley's booze Wink ), they were in a precarious position. And let's not forget that Canby's forces had already moved north through the Sandia Mountain chain to link up with the Colorado forces - which they accomplished shortly after Glorieta, and which gave them parity or better with Sibley's army.

The Rebs were too ambitious out there - if they had focused on holding the pro-Confederate southern swath of the New Mexico Territory ("Confederate Arizona" split the New Mexico Territory along an east-west line, NOT the north-south boundary of today) and had made it a point to force the surrender of Canby's forces at Fort Craig after the Battle of Valverde instead of moving past them, then maybe they could have held Confederate Arizona.

The Southwest and the Pacific Coast were more ambivalent than dedicated to one side - there was talk of creating a 'Western Republic' out there!

Yep, I know all about this - I did an 84-page research paper on this in college... Cheesy
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« Reply #48 on: June 30, 2004, 01:18:21 am »
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The souths failure points and this is the last time I repost this. Smiley

1) Lees' lost orders being found.
2) Failure to take advantage of the Second Manassas Union collapse. They could have devastated the AoP at Chantilly.
3) The failure to entrap the Union army against the Rappahanock at Chancerlorsville. They DID have the ability to do that.
4) JEB Stuarts failure to re-unite with the Confederate Army early on the 1st day of Gettysburg. Although it would have not been a deciding victory for the CSA it would have been a humiliation to be beat on "home territory".
5) The Confederate Government had plenty of food and supplies to feed and clothe the army (unlike what school books tell you). The failure was Georgia and North Carolina protesting sending the supplies (extreme states rights) and the deterioration of the internal railroads.
6) Complete lack of any (successful)fight by the western armies.
7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Other minor failures :
a) C.S.S. Hunley
b) Failure to make use of the advantage the CSS Virginia had on the first day.
c) Shiloh
d) <sigh> Jefferson C Davis and his failure to form a cooperative bond with generals other then Lee.

The west lost the south the war.
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« Reply #49 on: June 30, 2004, 01:39:59 am »
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1- Not a war loser, but it killed their chances for a while.
2- Very likely.  Definitely the best chance.
3- Possible, but not a given.  Probably not a war winning moment though.
4- Likely result is the Union pulls back and seeks battle elsewhere.
5- Yes, the Confederate government was a nightmare.  I'm half convinced NC was intentionally sabotaging the war effort.
6- A huge problem.  They always thought  the west was a diversion and never realized the importance of the Mississippi river.
7- All this really did is end the war a few years early, but this was the final nail in the coffin.  It removed the last fighting chance they had to try and come back.

Agree completely withthe rest of your points.
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