There is no dobut the CSA could have won the war at a number of points, but they would have done with a decivise victory where the "Army of the Potomac" was totally destroyed, and a tactical victory that Lee gained at "2nd Bull Run", or Chancellorsville, or a defensive victory such as Fredricksburg.
The places where Lee could have destroyed the Union forces are quite various:
1) During the 7 days campaign as already described .
2) A complete win at "2nd Bull Run".
3) The "Lost Order " isnt lost.
4) Jackson isnt killed at Chancellorsville, and Stonewall reaches the US Mine Ford(a road to which he was looking for when he was shot by his own men).
5) Gettysburg.
As for what the CSA would have looked like I think it would had for certain the following states:
1) Alabama
2) Arkansas
3) Florida
4) Georgia
5) Louisinia
6) Mississippi
7) North Carolina
South Carolina
9) Tennessee
10) Texas
11) Virginia
States I think would have joined the CSA.
1) Kentucky.
States that could have been divided between USA & CSA.
2) Missouri & Maryland.
Southern Missouri was very pro-CSA. As was parts of Maryland.
Territory that would have gone to the CSA.
1) The Indian Territory.(The current state of Oklahoma)
Territory that CSA might have got.
1) New Mexico Territory. (The current two states of New Mexico and Arizona).
Also Cuba I think would have gone to the CSA, and also to help bail out Emperor Max in Mexico the CSA might have gotten Territory there namely the states of Chinuahua and Sonora.