Confederate States

[12th Doctor]

There is no dobut the CSA could have won the war at a number of points, but they would have done with a decivise victory where the "Army of the Potomac" was  totally destroyed, and a tactical victory that Lee gained at "2nd Bull Run", or Chancellorsville, or a defensive victory such as Fredricksburg.
The places where Lee could have destroyed the Union forces are quite various:
1) During the 7 days campaign as already described .
2) A complete win at "2nd Bull Run".
3) The "Lost Order " isnt lost.
4) Jackson isnt killed at Chancellorsville, and Stonewall reaches the US Mine Ford(a road to which he was looking for when he was shot by his own men).
5) Gettysburg.
As for what the CSA would have looked like I think it would had for certain the following states:
1) Alabama
2) Arkansas
3) Florida
4) Georgia
5) Louisinia
6) Mississippi
7) North Carolina
South Carolina
9) Tennessee
10) Texas
11) Virginia
States I think would have joined the CSA.
1) Kentucky.
States that could have been divided between USA & CSA.
2) Missouri & Maryland.
Southern Missouri was very pro-CSA. As was parts of Maryland.
Territory that would have gone to the CSA.
1) The Indian Territory.(The current state of Oklahoma)
Territory that CSA might have got.
1) New Mexico Territory. (The current two states of New Mexico and Arizona).
Also Cuba I think would have gone to the CSA, and also to help bail out Emperor Max in Mexico the CSA might have gotten Territory there namely the states of Chinuahua and Sonora.

                                                                                                                                                                               

The only way New Mexico would have ended up in Confederate hands would have been it Sibley hadn't been a damn fool and left his supply train unprotected at Glorieta.  If he hadn't, the Confederates may have even invaded Colorado.

[12th Doctor]

The CSA could not win the war on the battlefield by 1862.  It had to win it by making the North feel that it was not worth continuing.  A single decisive battlefield victory that annihilated a Union army would not have done it.  Northern political resolve showed many times that it could rebound from despair caused by temporary Confederate high tides.  Making those tides higher would not have affected the ultimate outcome of the war.  You need to either have the Confederates take Washington in 1861 or have a different Republican win the presidency in 1860 to have any reasonable chance of Confederate independence.

Northern political resolve was sliping quite a bit.  It didn't really strengthen until after the Amancipation Proclimation, yeah, I know, my spelling is terrible.  I think that a decisive victory on PA soil in 1862, along with Bragg capturing Louisville would have tipped it.  You must remember, too, that European involvement was very likely before the AP.


I would contend that the Confederates could have one the war as late as 1864, but thier country would have been a disater and they would have lost Tennessee and and hope of getting Kentucky and the Indian Territory.

[12th Doctor]

I agree that a decisve victory in which the main Union army is destroyed would have ended the war in the CSA favour. A win in Maryland or Penn in 1862 would have seen the French and British force a peace settlement.
A victory at Gettysburg was possable but not on the 3rd day with Picketts charge, that was always going to fail.
The best hope for Lee to win was on the 2nd day, by taking Little Round Top and outflanking the whole Union line, and dont forget that it was race for the Union to get troops on to that hill, and the race was won only by 10 minutes. If Warren had not spotted the weakness just say 5 minutes the battle could have well be a lot different.

A war ending Confederate victory at Gettysburg was not possible.  Once Ewell made the decision not to attack the hieghts on Day 1, the Confederates lost thier chance.  The ANV would not have won the second day with out Pickett's division, plain and simple.  If Pickett would have arrived a day early and been part of the second day's attack, then the CSA would have met success.  But, that was quite impossible.

[12th Doctor]

What I mean when I say the Confederate could not have one a war ending victory at Gettysburg is that, even if they had won on the first day, the Federal Army would have retreated back to Pipe Creek, per Meade's General Order #1.  So, if the Confederates had won, the decisive battle would have been fought else where.

[12th Doctor]

Stonewall Jackson would had taken Culips Hill, he wouldnbt had stopped like Ewell, but again Gettysburg would have been a CSA win but NOT a decisive win in which the "Army of the Potomac" is destroyed.
What-if Hooker was still in control after all he was only sacked two days before the battle.

Wouldn't have mattered much, because Hancock was the de facto commander anyway.  Meade was rather inconsequential.

[12th Doctor]

I agree Hancock did a lot to win the battle, also here is another what-if , What-if John Reynolds was not killed on the 1st day- would he if he been alive on the 3rd day forced Meade into a counter-attack that could well have destroyed Lee. Hancock pushed for it- but Meade said no- but with Reynolds pushing for it as well he might have changed his mind.
I do think the CSA could have won the war of that there is no dobut, it is just where and when?

2nd Bull Run/Manassas was the last real chance.  

Noooo.  War Weariness equals Linocoln getting voted out.  This notion that the North was massively united behind the war is just a fairl-tale taught to make the north look all good and the south look all bad.  There were draft riots and papers that were harshly critical of Lincoln, anti-war demonstrations and other things in the north through out the war.

[12th Doctor]

A bit more war weariness and there might have been a few more states run like Indiana, but unless Southern Arnies could stay in Kentucky or  Pennsylvania instead of merely making raids into them, it wouldn't amount to enough to cause the war to be lost. The South did not have the logistical capability to do maintain large armies in the field far from the railroads.

McClellan believed that he was massively out numbered by the south and a lot of people believed him.  Add that onto the people who were against the war.  Then consider that Lee had no intention to simply raid the north, he intended to defeat the Union army decisively and capture Baltimore or Philadelphia.

[12th Doctor]

2) Failure to take advantage of the Second Manassas Union collapse. They could have devastated the AoP at Chantilly.

That's a negative.  Pope's command was not the Army of the Potomac, it was the Army of Virginia, a smaller command of about 50,000 men.  Lee's whole objective in fighting Second Manassas was to annihilate Pope's command before it could link up with the 90,000 man Army of the Potomac which was still in Washington.  McClellan was still in command.  They teach in school, however, that McClellan was relived in favor of Pope and then McClellan came back, because that is easier to understand, though quite inaccurate.

[12th Doctor]

7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Ehhh, I would say that the Confederates last chance to win the war was the Battle of North Anna.  If they had carried out Lee's plans and sucessfully split the Federals into two groups and fought them while they were deployed piecemeal, they could have won an astunding victory against Grant just before the election.

[12th Doctor]

2) Failure to take advantage of the Second Manassas Union collapse. They could have devastated the AoP at Chantilly.

That's a negative.  Pope's command was not the Army of the Potomac, it was the Army of Virginia, a smaller command of about 50,000 men.  Lee's whole objective in fighting Second Manassas was to annihilate Pope's command before it could link up with the 90,000 man Army of the Potomac which was still in Washington.  McClellan was still in command.  They teach in school, however, that McClellan was relived in favor of Pope and then McClellan came back, because that is easier to understand, though quite inaccurate.

Sorry my memory is getting rusty. sigh You are correct.

Quite alright ol' chum.  

[12th Doctor]

4- Likely result is the Union pulls back and seeks battle elsewhere.

Yep! Rock Creek running along the MD/PA border.

Sorry to contradict you again, but I thought that Meade's Orders were to pull back to Pipe Creek.

[12th Doctor]

7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Ehhh, I would say that the Confederates last chance to win the war was the Battle of North Anna.  If they had carried out Lee's plans and sucessfully split the Federals into two groups and fought them while they were deployed piecemeal, they could have won an astunding victory against Grant just before the election.

North Anna would have turned the Union back for a while.  Lee would have had to avoid conflict with the resurgent Union over the coming months as the next wave of enlistments arrived.

Grant's forces were already wearing thin.  At Cold Harbor (just after North Anna) they already had to pluck the "Band-box" regiments from D.C.

[12th Doctor]

4- Likely result is the Union pulls back and seeks battle elsewhere.

Yep! Rock Creek running along the MD/PA border.

Sorry to contradict you again, but I thought that Meade's Orders were to pull back to Pipe Creek.

I believe it was actually both.

(shrug) probably.   Funny thing, I bet if newbies stumbled into here, they would think that we must be 3 Ph.D's talking.  

[12th Doctor]

7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Ehhh, I would say that the Confederates last chance to win the war was the Battle of North Anna.  If they had carried out Lee's plans and sucessfully split the Federals into two groups and fought them while they were deployed piecemeal, they could have won an astunding victory against Grant just before the election.

North Anna would have turned the Union back for a while.  Lee would have had to avoid conflict with the resurgent Union over the coming months as the next wave of enlistments arrived.

Grant's forces were already wearing thin.  At Cold Harbor (just after North Anna) they already had to pluck the "Band-box" regiments from D.C.

But the next wave of draftees were due soon, as in a matter of weeks.  That is why Lee felt the need to strike, the Union was going to get stronger while Lee was looking at no more reinforcements, the Confederacy was nearly bled white.

Oh, of course.  But in real life, when they came, Grant was very lucky, because they were settling down and they wouldn't have to march or perform any complex manuvers.  In the open field, Lee could have taken advantage of these gree units.

[12th Doctor]

4- Likely result is the Union pulls back and seeks battle elsewhere.

Yep! Rock Creek running along the MD/PA border.

Sorry to contradict you again, but I thought that Meade's Orders were to pull back to Pipe Creek.

I believe it was actually both.

(shrug) probably.   Funny thing, I bet if newbies stumbled into here, they would think that we must be 3 Ph.D's talking.  

You're not?

<G>

hahaha  Your such a comedian.  

[12th Doctor]

4- Likely result is the Union pulls back and seeks battle elsewhere.

Yep! Rock Creek running along the MD/PA border.

Sorry to contradict you again, but I thought that Meade's Orders were to pull back to Pipe Creek.

I believe it was actually both.

(shrug) probably.   Funny thing, I bet if newbies stumbled into here, they would think that we must be 3 Ph.D's talking.  

You're not?


Seriously, we are far too brief for Ph.Ds.

True, that just means we acctually know what we are talking about, though.

[12th Doctor]

7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Ehhh, I would say that the Confederates last chance to win the war was the Battle of North Anna.  If they had carried out Lee's plans and sucessfully split the Federals into two groups and fought them while they were deployed piecemeal, they could have won an astunding victory against Grant just before the election.

North Anna would have turned the Union back for a while.  Lee would have had to avoid conflict with the resurgent Union over the coming months as the next wave of enlistments arrived.

Grant's forces were already wearing thin.  At Cold Harbor (just after North Anna) they already had to pluck the "Band-box" regiments from D.C.

But the next wave of draftees were due soon, as in a matter of weeks.  That is why Lee felt the need to strike, the Union was going to get stronger while Lee was looking at no more reinforcements, the Confederacy was nearly bled white.

Oh, of course.  But in real life, when they came, Grant was very lucky, because they were settling down and they wouldn't have to march or perform any complex manuvers.  In the open field, Lee could have taken advantage of these gree units.

Grant would have had to pull back to them, but Lee would not have risked crossing into the North again.  

True, but we must also ponder what the casulty figures would have been for the Federals if Lee had been sucessful at North Anna.  We are talking about the possible destruction of an entire Corps (V).  The would have devistated the Federal command as that was nearly a quarter of the AoP.  If that had happened, Grant would almost certainly have had to retreat north to protect his supply train, which was already percariously possitioned.  If you recall, Grant had moved it into a vulnerable possition to draw Lee out of Cold Harbor.  Lee didn't take the bait, but Grant would have been in a very uncomfortable possition had Lee won.

[12th Doctor]

The reason I say Rock creek is because I know someone that lives on the banks and a sign is up by their house that says it's was a fallback point. And if you want to see Civil War History look at my wifes family tree!! Good grief she has almost 70 CSA ancestors. Trederick what part of NC are you from? My wifes family is from the Wilson area. Waddells and Jones (which one? lol). They are tobacco farmers, though not so much anymore. One of her ancestors owned almost 800 slaves in the Orangeburg district of SC.

I'm sure that I mentioned this before, but my family comes from Washington, NC and the surrounding area.  The Rumley's and the Hall's sent 31 boys off to war, only three came back without being at least severely wounded.

[12th Doctor]

This is the civil war, whole Coprps do not go away that quickly.  He could have devastated the Corp, but 60-70% would have gotten away.  They did have an avenue of retreat, but would have been cut of ffromt the main line.  Would still have been a heavy blow.

Casualties would have likely been 20-30% for the Federals, massive but not enough to disintegrate the force.

It is also possible the men would have failed Lee.  The southerners were not well drilled and the complex plan might have fallen apart, it happened more than once to the Cnfederates.

Well, thats what I meant when I said "destroyed".  But you also asume that they would have been able to preserve order and make an orderly retreat, I doubt that.  Civil War Units did not react well in general when they were nearly totally cut-off.  Pandamonium would have ensued.  Federal soldier would have disgarded much of their arms and equipment to swim accross the river.  After such an event, I think that only about 40% of those who went into battle would have been ready to fight the next day or even the next week (or of course, never again for those killed, wounded or captured).

[12th Doctor]

I disagree. Both sides were equally drilled. The problem was the flow of new recruits on both sides caused discipline problems. Gilliams tactics were FAR superior to Hardees (what a lousy book). I have read both and they are very interesting.

Hardee would have done a better job than Hood, whether his book sucks or not.

For one thing, I doubt that Hardee would have got half the Confederate command killed in one battle and for another, Hardee wouldn't have been stoned out on opium half the time.