Handicap all the new Democratic seats

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I know it's impossible to tell until you know who the candidates are, but here's my say so far:

Likely R
TX-22

Lean R
PA-10

Toss-Up
PA-04
WI-08
IN-02
FL-16
CA-11
KS-02
NY-19
NH-01
TX-23

Lean D
MN-01
NY-20
CT-02
AZ-05
PA-08
OH-18
NC-11
IN-09
KY-03

Likely D
AZ-08
IA-01
IN-08
NY-24
NH-02
CT-05
CO-07
FL-22

Safe D
IA-02
PA-07

Did I miss any?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think it would be wrong to place any of the new seats in 'Learn R' at this stage.  'Toss-up' is as far as I would go. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

KY-03 is not on that list though it is now a Dem-held seat. I am thinking it is "lean D" since Kerry narrowly won that district.

Added, and I agree with you.

I think it would be wrong to place any of the new seats in 'Learn R' at this stage.  'Toss-up' is as far as I would go. 

That's true in most cases, which is the main reason for the placement of ones like KS-02. But TX-22 and PA-10 are different, these are staunchly Republican districts held only by fluke, basically due to extreme mishaps on behalf of the former incumbents.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Added, and I agree with you.

Lean D at this stage is accurate enough for that district, but not for that reason.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Added, and I agree with you.

Lean D at this stage is accurate enough for that district, but not for that reason.

Based on what then? That the GOP has no bench?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Based on what then?

A couple of things, largely to do with the demographic makeup/balance of the district.

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Despite the registration figures, they have a decent bench there; says something about the polarisation of the Louisville area I guess.

[Democratic Hawk]

Likely Republican:

TX-22

Lean Republican:

KS-02
PA-10
FL-16

Toss-up:

IN-09
KY-03
MN-01
OH-18
WI-08
CT-02
NH-01
PA-04
PA-08
AZ-05
CA-11

Lean Dem:

IN-02
IA-01
NY-19
NY-20
FL-22
NC-11
TX-23
AZ-08

Likely Dem:

CO-07
IN-08
IA-02
CT-05
NH-02
NY-24
PA-07

I'm not playing safe with any of 'em

Dave