If the GOP were to win every county in the U.S. but one...

[nclib]

Hmm...of course this is extremely unlikely, but I'd say Shannon, since it's very poor and a reservation and therefore might not have good access to the same media that the rest of the country gets.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Macon

[7,052,770]

depends on the candidate's home county

[Adlai Stevenson]

Washington, D.C.

[minionofmidas]

Depends just on why the candidate is so grotesquely bad.

Either way, it would have to be a county that isn't just extremely democratic, but also very very weird. That one SE Iowa County where Hagelin polled 20% in 2000 and where Kucinich almost topped the vote in the Caucus in 2004 comes to mind... what's it called? Jefferson?

[jokerman]

Depends just on why the candidate is so grotesquely bad.

Either way, it would have to be a county that isn't just extremely democratic, but also very very weird. That one SE Iowa County where Hagelin polled 20% in 2000 and where Kucinich almost topped the vote in the Caucus in 2004 comes to mind... what's it called? Jefferson?

Indeed, you are correct.  Hagelin won about 14% there in 2000.

I looked at the stats of the county on wikipedia, and based on basic demographics it looked pretty normal, but then I stumbled upon one of the cities within the county: Vedic City, a township "centered on the principles and teachings of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi."  His Transcendental Meditation movement happens to be the basis of the Natural Law Party.

It's also home to Farfield, several miles south of Vedic City, which was the original home of the "Transcedental Meditation" movement.

[minionofmidas]

Depends just on why the candidate is so grotesquely bad.

Either way, it would have to be a county that isn't just extremely democratic, but also very very weird. That one SE Iowa County where Hagelin polled 20% in 2000 and where Kucinich almost topped the vote in the Caucus in 2004 comes to mind... what's it called? Jefferson?

Indeed, you are correct.  Hagelin won about 14% there in 2000.

I looked at the stats of the county on wikipedia, and based on basic demographics it looked pretty normal, but then I stumbled upon one of the cities within the county: Vedic City, a township "centered on the principles and teachings of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi."  His Transcendental Meditation movement happens to be the basis of the Natural Law Party.

It's also home to Farfield, several miles south of Vedic City, which was the original home of the "Transcedental Meditation" movement.

There's also a Maharishi University of Management if memory serves me right.

[Michael Z]

The Democrats could run Satan and they'd still win DC.

[minionofmidas]

The Democrats could run Satan and they'd still win DC.

Not if the Republicans run Charlie Rangel.

[jerusalemcar5]

The heavily black counties could most certainly flop.  I am going with San Francisco because I like the city and I think the Dmeocrats are more ingrained.

[Verily]

I think it's the heavily Native American counties that would flip last; in this case, probably Shannon, SD.

[Gustaf]

I'm thinking that if something makes all those other counties swing GOP it would had to involve blacks switching sides for some reason. Now, I'm reasoning this could be a factor bringing minority voters in general over to the GOP side. So, I went with San Fransisco. But Shannon is a good candidate as well. The others seem to be too similar to me, making it hard to see why one would switch and not the others.

[bgwah]

San Francisco.

Why it wouldn't be Shannon:
Though Shannon is the most Democratic, there are similar counties that tend to be quite Democratic and dominated by Native Americans in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, New Mexico, etc. If the Republican managed to win all of these, then he should win Shannon, too.

Similar for Macon, there are many rural majority black counties in the South. If the Republican won all of these then it should be believable that he or she could win Macon, too.

Though extremely unlikely, I would have to say that the Bronx and Washington, DC are more likely than San Francisco. Both are counties dominated by poor minorities who vote very Democratic. If a Republican won one (and similar counties with a large group of poor minorities, like Cook, Wayne, or Baltimore) then he should win the other.

That leaves San Francisco. The Green Party has a better chance of winning this city than the Republican Party. No county really strikes me as being terribly similar to San Francisco... other far-left cities like Seattle are in counties with their suburbs. Alameda has Oakland, which should swing it to the GOP if they can win places like the Bronx and DC... No other counties are nearly as Democratic as San Francisco without being significantly poorer or having much larger Black or Native American populations. So in my opinion, San Francisco would be the last county to go Republican.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No county really strikes me as being terribly similar to San Francisco... other far-left cities like Seattle are in counties with their suburbs. Alameda has Oakland, which should swing it to the GOP if they can win places like the Bronx and DC...

Oakland is to the left of San Francisco. New York (county), NY is similiar to San Francisco.

[minionofmidas]

No county really strikes me as being terribly similar to San Francisco... other far-left cities like Seattle are in counties with their suburbs. Alameda has Oakland, which should swing it to the GOP if they can win places like the Bronx and DC...

Oakland is to the left of San Francisco. New York (county), NY is similiar to San Francisco.

It's probably fairly absurd to think the Republicans could win Manhattan without winning San Francisco first, actually.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A better question would be the inverse (ie: If the Dems were to win every county in the U.S but one..), and for that there would be a loongg list of possible answers. Of course, the changes of either this or the above question ever happening are slim to none - and the slim has long left town.

[Verily]

San Francisco.

Why it wouldn't be Shannon:
Though Shannon is the most Democratic, there are similar counties that tend to be quite Democratic and dominated by Native Americans in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, New Mexico, etc. If the Republican managed to win all of these, then he should win Shannon, too.

Margins. There are plenty of other heavily Native American counties, but none of them are quite as strongly Democratic as Shannon. I hold that Native Americans would be the last bloc to abandon the Democratic Party, but, in a landslide situation, even many Native Americans would support the Republicans. Thus, while other, less strongly Democratic Native American counties might vote Republican, Shannon would narrowly vote Democratic.

[MaC]

Either the Bronx, NY or San Francisco, CA-both areas get heavily 86%+ Democratic

[Beet]

As Harry and Lewis have hinted, it depends why the GOP wins every county but one. It could easily be the Democrat's home county or something.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

It's probably fairly absurd to think the Republicans could win Manhattan without winning San Francisco first, actually.

Republican result in 1997 race for NYC Mayor in Manhattan: 51%
Republican result in 2005 race for San Fransisco Mayor: 2.4%

[minionofmidas]

It's probably fairly absurd to think the Republicans could win Manhattan without winning San Francisco first, actually.

Republican result in 1997 race for NYC Mayor in Manhattan: 51%
Republican result in 2005 race for San Fransisco Mayor: 2.4%

Yeah, yeah, I know. And while my statement is worded too strongly, I nonetheless stand by its core message. A Republican winning Manhattan in a presidential election would win SF first, unless maybe if he's Rudy Giuliani against a Democrat not just very weak but also Californian.

[ottermax]

I think San Francisco is very liberal, but I can see them voting Republican if there is a moderate. I still voted for SF because I've been there, and it would probably vote for the Democrat. I don't think a single county would be left, there would at least be a few.

[08watch]

They'd lose Philly.

[Eraserhead]

The Bronx. I should know, I used to live there. Bloomberg couldn't even win it.

[nclib]

A better question would be the inverse (ie: If the Dems were to win every county in the U.S but one..), and for that there would be a loongg list of possible answers. Of course, the changes of either this or the above question ever happening are slim to none - and the slim has long left town.

The list for the inverse would not only be extremely long, but would contain counties no one has ever heard of. It's much easier to talk about the question in the poll, since 3 of the most Democratic counties (D.C., San Fran., the Bronx) everyone is familiar with, and the other two (Shannon, SD and Macon, AL) are unique in that they both contain a large minority population (Natives in the former; Af.-Am's in the latter). There is nothing that really sets apart the ultra-Republican counties from each other.