British polling websites?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Can I be provided with some good sites to look at recent opinion polls dealing with the parties?

[Rural Radical]

Can I be provided with some good sites to look at recent opinion polls dealing with the parties?

look at www.yougov.com It is a bit scewed though as its demographic tends to be a bit high.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most published polls end up being covered HERE

The overall pattern of support is much the same as it's been since spring though.

[merseysider]

www.icmresearch.co.uk

www.mori.co.uk

www.nop.co.uk

www.populus.co.uk

[The Man From G.O.P.]

What do you all think accurate poll numbers are at this time? I see 40-32-23 c/l/l as a reported number, does that seem right?

[afleitch]

What do you all think accurate poll numbers are at this time? I see 40-32-23 c/l/l as a reported number, does that seem right?

On the whole yes. The polls have tended to show the Conservatives in the lead since the May elections, the longest sustained lead for...well...a long time.  Though I tend to think Labour are still overestimated as some polling companies tend to weigh polls based on a higher % of support than Labour got in 2005

[Verily]

What do you all think accurate poll numbers are at this time? I see 40-32-23 c/l/l as a reported number, does that seem right?

I think those numbers sound reasonable. Of course, they may not translate into huge gains for the Conservatives, who will continue to be hampered by Lab-LD strategic voting. (The most obvious examples are in LD-Con marginals, most of which have the Labour vote squeezed into the single digits already.)

If I had to project the next House of Commons, I would expect something like:

Conservative: 300 (minority)
Labour: 256
Liberal Democrat: 60
Democratic Unionist: 9
Scottish National: 6
Sinn Fein: 5
Plaid Cymru: 4
Social Democratic and Labour: 3
Ulster Unionist: 1
Green: 1
Health Concern: 1

The Conservatives make many gains from Labour and a few from the Liberal Democrats. Labour loses almost everything left in the South. The Liberal Democrats decline sharply in the vote but distribute their vote much more efficiently, maintaining nearly the same number of seats (losing 8 seats to the Conservatives and gaining 5 from Labour). The Greens win Brighton Pavilion from Labour after heavy squeezing of the Liberal Democrat vote. Respect fails to hold on to its one seat, which falls to Labour; it becomes Labour's only gain. Health Concern barely holds in Wyre Forest ahead of the Conservatives; the Liberal Democrats again do not stand a candidate there. Northern Ireland stays unchanged, though the UUP fails to field candidates in many constituencies. The Alliance performs strongly against the DUP where the UUP does not stand, bringing the party back into the spotlight after a period of decline. Plaid Cymru wins a seat from Labour, though Labour mostly does well in Wales. The SNP holds its ground, failing to gain because of the unpopularity of the SNP government in Scotland, elected in 2007.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

What do you all think accurate poll numbers are at this time? I see 40-32-23 c/l/l as a reported number, does that seem right?

I think those numbers sound reasonable. Of course, they may not translate into huge gains for the Conservatives, who will continue to be hampered by Lab-LD strategic voting. (The most obvious examples are in LD-Con marginals, most of which have the Labour vote squeezed into the single digits already.)

If I had to project the next House of Commons, I would expect something like:

Conservative: 300 (minority)
Labour: 256
Liberal Democrat: 60
Democratic Unionist: 9
Scottish National: 6
Sinn Fein: 5
Plaid Cymru: 4
Social Democratic and Labour: 3
Ulster Unionist: 1
Green: 1
Health Concern: 1

The Conservatives make many gains from Labour and a few from the Liberal Democrats. Labour loses almost everything left in the South. The Liberal Democrats decline sharply in the vote but distribute their vote much more efficiently, maintaining nearly the same number of seats (losing 8 seats to the Conservatives and gaining 5 from Labour). The Greens win Brighton Pavilion from Labour after heavy squeezing of the Liberal Democrat vote. Respect fails to hold on to its one seat, which falls to Labour; it becomes Labour's only gain. Health Concern barely holds in Wyre Forest ahead of the Conservatives; the Liberal Democrats again do not stand a candidate there. Northern Ireland stays unchanged, though the UUP fails to field candidates in many constituencies. The Alliance performs strongly against the DUP where the UUP does not stand, bringing the party back into the spotlight after a period of decline. Plaid Cymru wins a seat from Labour, though Labour mostly does well in Wales. The SNP holds its ground, failing to gain because of the unpopularity of the SNP government in Scotland, elected in 2007.

And what, in your opinion, would be done if such a minority gov were to appear?

[Verily]

I would expect that the Liberal Democrats would mumble something about supporting the will of the electorate and agreeing not to actually cause the government to fall for a year or so. There's a good chance that they could also get the Conservatives to agree to proportional representation; Cameron seems like he'd be open to the idea. The Conservatives would probably pass few new laws, acting more like caretaker government, and an election would be called after a year, maybe sooner. Since Labour is already in absolute financial collapse, the Conservatives would probably win the second election outright and a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a good chance that they could also get the Conservatives to agree to proportional representation;

No there isn't; the Tories have always been fundamentally opposed to electoral reform and while it's, just about, possible that certain parts of the current Tory leadership might be a little more open to the idea, this is exactly the sort of issue that would set off the sort of internal nastyness last seen over Europe.
They might be able to convice Labour to agree to PR (a large minority of the PLP is strongly in favour of it, including several prominant Deputy Leadership candidates... oddly enough, one of them is the likely candidate of the Old Right, Alan Johnson), though it would depend on various other things. There are some (less than reliable it must be said) rumours that there have been some informal meetings between various senior Labour and LibDem figures over the issue again, btw.

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No, it's not that bad yet and the other parties aren't exactly in much better shape. There will likely be some significant party financing reform before the next election though; spending caps during election time would be the most likely methinks.
The general expectation is that more money will be donated as soon as Blair retires (both from Unions/individuals and a likely boost in membership), although Labour won't be in a position to fight an election until 2008 at earliest.

[Harry Hayfield]

What do you all think accurate poll numbers are at this time? I see 40-32-23 c/l/l as a reported number, does that seem right?

I think those numbers sound reasonable. Of course, they may not translate into huge gains for the Conservatives, who will continue to be hampered by Lab-LD strategic voting. (The most obvious examples are in LD-Con marginals, most of which have the Labour vote squeezed into the single digits already.)

If I had to project the next House of Commons, I would expect something like:

Conservative: 300 (minority)
Labour: 256
Liberal Democrat: 60
Democratic Unionist: 9
Scottish National: 6
Sinn Fein: 5
Plaid Cymru: 4
Social Democratic and Labour: 3
Ulster Unionist: 1
Green: 1
Health Concern: 1
Total: 646

I would remind you that the next election will have 650 MP's (following extensive boundary changes) and that at the moment the old (current) House is

Con: 214
Lab: 348
LDm: 63
Others: 25

[Rural Radical]

There's a good chance that they could also get the Conservatives to agree to proportional representation;

No there isn't; the Tories have always been fundamentally opposed to electoral reform and while it's, just about, possible that certain parts of the current Tory leadership might be a little more open to the idea, this is exactly the sort of issue that would set off the sort of internal nastyness last seen over Europe.
They might be able to convice Labour to agree to PR (a large minority of the PLP is strongly in favour of it, including several prominant Deputy Leadership candidates... oddly enough, one of them is the likely candidate of the Old Right, Alan Johnson), though it would depend on various other things. There are some (less than reliable it must be said) rumours that there have been some informal meetings between various senior Labour w]and LibDem figures over the issue again, btw.

Why are we having this post now? Labour have a majority over 60 and they aint going to go now or next year.

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No, it's not that bad yet and the other parties aren't exactly in much better shape. There will likely be some significant party financing reform before the next election though; spending caps during election time would be the most likely methinks.
The general expectation is that more money will be donated as soon as Blair retires (both from Unions/individuals and a likely boost in membership), although Labour won't be in a position to fight an election until 2008 at earliest.

I agree with the finance side. The opinion of Brown as PM will change one way or another once he has had six months or so in the top job.