What would make 2008 a realigning election?

[Reaganfan]

Discuss.

[Padfoot]

If the Democrats win the Southwest it could be a realignment.  Deomcrats have been making significant gains in the interior West for the past several elections.  Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico have all been closely contested in the past couple presidential elections.  If Democrats can put all three of these states in their column (and maybe Arizona) it will be a major realignment.

[nini2287]

Perhaps a populist Republican vs. libertarian-leaning Democrat.  Republicans sweep the Midwest and South while the Democrats sweep the Northeast and win several states in the West.

Something like:
Brownback/Huckabee vs. Schweitzer/Ken Salazar

[ndcohn]

If the Democrats win the Southwest it could be a realignment.  Deomcrats have been making significant gains in the interior West for the past several elections.  Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico have all been closely contested in the past couple presidential elections.  If Democrats can put all three of these states in their column (and maybe Arizona) it will be a major realignment.

democratic gains in the southwest are probably enough to maintain parity, but not enough to trigger realignment given the anticipated change in the distribution of electoral votes after reapportionment.

[nini2287]

If the Democrats win the Southwest it could be a realignment.  Deomcrats have been making significant gains in the interior West for the past several elections.  Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico have all been closely contested in the past couple presidential elections.  If Democrats can put all three of these states in their column (and maybe Arizona) it will be a major realignment.

democratic gains in the southwest are probably enough to maintain parity, but not enough to trigger realignment given the anticipated change in the distribution of electoral votes after reapportionment.

Welcome to the Forum, I know this is going to sound really random but I do have a reason for asking--what does ndcohn mean?

[7,052,770]

Maybe something like Guiliani vs. Bill Richardson sends the SW to the Dems, Republicans become more competitive in NJ/CT/PA and other midwest, Dems do better in FL, and both parties move toward the center.

[tarheel-leftist85]

if Democrats embrace economic liberalism, for once...but aparently, that's too "extremist"

Nothing is going to move the Deep South.  As long as there are black people or non-WASPs that place is going to be scary.  The Mountain West is also going to be the 51-49 place that it is now--especially when widespread Hispanic disenfranchisement begins in earnest.  But maybe if we just become a little more libertarian those lovable white moderate suburbanites will vote for us...just maybe...

Goldwater Country will stay Goldwater Country.  If any realignment occurs, it'll be in the Peripheral South and Great Plains.  The Great Plains, of course, had somewhat of a socialist movement a century ago, and the Peripheral South is akin to the Great Plains and the rest of the Midwest.  Republicans, I think may also start to do well on the Pacific Coast as soon as they give up the populist act.  But don't believe me: every election is 2000 and 2004.  Just add/subtract five points to each state rather than looking at them individually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Deomcrats have been making significant gains in the interior West for the past several elections.

But not this year.

[Padfoot]

Deomcrats have been making significant gains in the interior West for the past several elections.

But not this year.

Right because picking up a Senate seat, Governor's office, and three House districts aren't gains, two of which were in Arizona no less.  Not to mention the increasing number of Democrats in the state legislatures.  I beleive Democrats have total control of Montana, Colorado, and New Mexico's state legislatures and Nevada's two houses are split between the parties.  Right no gains for Democrats this year; it was complete Republican dominance.

[sethm0]

 To me, "realignment" means major, permanent change, usually brought on by a major event. The south leaving the Democratic Party was realignment. Black voters leaving the Republican Party was realignment. Reagan winning 49 states in the 80s and Clinton winning 30 or so in the 90s was not realignment. Realignment is major, permanent change for a large national voting block, not just the dynamics of a single election.

 I don't really see it happening this time around. Yes, the west is trending Democratic, but this is not a sudden, major realignment. It is a slow, steady trend much like the shifting of New England from the Republicans to the Democrats, which has taken several decades.

 The only way I can forsee a major, sudden, permanent shift in voting patterns is if some major event happens: bin Laden attacks again, a major figure like Bush or Hillary is assissinated, or some sort of Watergate-level scandal for either party is revealed. Not likely at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right no gains for Democrats this year; it was complete Republican dominance.

You said "significant gains" and I replied to you in that context. They certainly made gains there; gains happend all over the place.

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Only just o/c. And if the electorate had moved there like it did in the Greater Rustbelt, at least two and maybe three Senate seats would have fallen.

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In the one Arizona district the GOP candidate was a nutter (district might have flipped even if he weren't o/c), while Hayworth was... somewhat ethically challenged by this point.
Contrast with the failure to gain various other vulnerable districts in the area.

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Happend all across the U.S. For example, I think this was the first election since the '80's (maybe as early as '82?) that the Democrats did not suffer a net loss of state legislative seats in the South.

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The NM legislature has been Democratic for donkey's years, Colorado fell in 2004 and the Montana House was the only loss of a chamber the Democrats suffered this year.