Indiana & Mississippi polls - no surprises

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From today's Hotline:

Indiana

   A Bellwether Research poll; conducted 6/22-24/04 for the IN Manufacturers Association; surveryed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.0% (The Howey Political Report, 6/28).

General Election Matchup
Bush    52%
Kerry   36
Undec.  11

Fav/Unfav
        Bush      Kerry
Fav     57%       37%
Unfav   36        47


Mississippi

A Mississippi poll; conducted 4/5-21 by the Survey Research Unit at Mississippi Univ.; surveyed 523 adults; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 6/29). Subsample: 300 likely general election voters; margin of error +/- 5.8%.


General Election Matchup
          All     LVs
Bush    55%  61%
Kerry    34     30
Undec.  10    9

Label By Leaning:                    Own
                            Kerry  Bush  Views
Very liberal                25%     7%    4%
Somewhat liberal          23     13    12
Moderate                    17     15    28
Somewhat conservative   7     31    27
Very conservative          5     18    21

 

[The Vorlon]

Mr. Gov NickG...

The Colorado Poll from Mason Dixon, BTW, was just right dead on...

EVERYTHING was damn near perfect.

They should take that poll and frame it

[ilikeverin]

If you add undecideds to the Dem column, and add 4 to the Dem and subtract 4 to the Rep column (MoE), Indiana is a tossup going to Kerry

[Reds4]

What if you add 4 to the Republican side and subtract 4 from the Dem side for the MOE? haha.
 Indiana is staying strong Bush barring some huge shift toward Kerry nationally.

[Keystone Phil]

Bush's lead is 21% in Mississippi. Oh no could this state be in play for Kerry, guys?

[ilikeverin]

What if you add 4 to the Republican side and subtract 4 from the Dem side for the MOE?

and add 4 to the Dem and subtract 4 to the Rep column (MoE)

[Sibboleth]

Kerry on just 30% in MS? Are people in the Delta banned from voting now?

[WalterMitty]

im sure there are some on this board who think indiana and mississippi are trending democratic.

im just waiting for someone to say, 'they will be in play in 2008'

[elcorazon]

These polls are bad news for Bush.  He is winning by fairly large margins in these areas.  Because nationally the vote is split close to evenly, if he's getting too much support in states that aren't in play, that must mean Kerry's doing better in other states.  Of course if Kerry's margin is big in stats like NY, CA, IL, MA, etc. then that will even out (help Bush, actually), but if Kerry's getting his support in the battleground then Bush could get Gored.

[Sibboleth]

im sure there are some on this board who think indiana and mississippi are trending democratic.

im just waiting for someone to say, 'they will be in play in 2008'

If racial voting somehow stopped in MS (or at least down to the levels of Alabama) would be in play. No chance of that happening though...

[WalterMitty]

im sorry, but being up 31 points is never 'bad news'

[elcorazon]

im sorry, but being up 31 points is never 'bad news'

keep your head in the sand if you want

[Sibboleth]

im sorry, but being up 31 points is never 'bad news'

For Bush to be up that much in Mississippi, he would have to have made some major inroads into the black vote.
As if.
Mississippi is about as bad as it gets for racial voting. Period.

[AuH2O]

"Racial" voting is actually increasing, not decreasing. Most white Democrats in the South are older, and as they die, they are replaced by young whites who are basically all Republican.

Younger blacks are more Republican (and independent) as well, but because there are fewer of them, the actual racial gap will increase for a while, before dropping as the DNC just gives up the South (which it will do). Plus the majority of them are still Democratic voters.

You know a party is stupid when it gives up on the majority vote...

[ATFFL]

Kerry is up 52-34 in NY, which has a much, much larger population.  That cancels out Bush's huge leads in many rural states.

[The Vorlon]

im sure there are some on this board who think indiana and mississippi are trending democratic.

im just waiting for someone to say, 'they will be in play in 2008'

They will be in play in 2048!

[ilikeverin]

im sure there are some on this board who think indiana and mississippi are trending democratic.

im just waiting for someone to say, 'they will be in play in 2008'

They will be in play in 2048!

When the immensly popular, dashing, handsome, smart, witty, clever, suave, and compassionate liberal senator from Indiana runs for Vice-President... and his first name is Chris and he got 4th in the Minnesota Geographic Bee in 5th Grade

[© Tweed the Younger]

im just waiting for someone to say, 'they will be in play in 2008'

If Bayh is the Dem presidential candidate in 2008, he would win Indiana easily.

[The Vorlon]

Can't we all just get along? Goodness.

Always play nice

It's the Libertarian way...

[So the Heroes Fall]

im sure there are some on this board who think indiana and mississippi are trending democratic.

im just waiting for someone to say, 'they will be in play in 2008'

if you're trying to compare them to Virginia, you're making one awful point.

Please, just compare the stats on Virginia to those two states. Indiana is probably the most static state in the union, Mississippi is basically about as Republican as a state with that high of a black population can get and it's not going anywhere. But you think they are in the same league as Virginia, which Bush didn't even win by double digits?

[Dave Leip]

I second Vorlons request.  Please debate on the merits and try not to let it get personal.  I have deleted a number of posts that I deemed inappropriate.
Thanks,
Dave

[platypeanArchcow]

im sure there are some on this board who think indiana and mississippi are trending democratic.

im just waiting for someone to say, 'they will be in play in 2008'

They will be in play in 2048!

When the immensly popular, dashing, handsome, smart, witty, clever, suave, and compassionate liberal senator from Indiana runs for Vice-President... and his first name is Chris and he got 4th in the Minnesota Geographic Bee in 5th Grade

Yay, the Geography Bee!  The good old times.

Hey, Ilikeverin, are you going to be in 8th or 9th grade next year?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

im sorry, but being up 31 points is never 'bad news'

If Kerry was up 31 points in DC, that'd be a major disaster.

[??????????]

These polls are bad news for Bush.  He is winning by fairly large margins in these areas.  Because nationally the vote is split close to evenly, if he's getting too much support in states that aren't in play, that must mean Kerry's doing better in other states.  Of course if Kerry's margin is big in stats like NY, CA, IL, MA, etc. then that will even out (help Bush, actually), but if Kerry's getting his support in the battleground then Bush could get Gored.

How can you have to much support? Democrats are really reaching for straws now.

[Sibboleth]

I second Vorlons request.  Please debate on the merits and try not to let it get personal.  I have deleted a number of posts that I deemed inappropriate.
Thanks,
Dave

Sorry about that