Which battle-tested Republican incumbents will lose in 2008?

[nini2287]

Out of the Republican incumbents who seem to barely win every election, who will lose in 2008?

I'm betting on a Reichert loss, I think the others will be safe.

[Padfoot]

I would say they are all in serious jeopardy and I would go on to include my own Rep. Deborah Pryce in that list.  The Democrats will be targeting these types of districts in order to offset the likely loss of some of their "scandal wins."  In a presidential year with a good candidate and a Democratic wind blowing, the coattails will be hard to overcome.  Barring a Republican surge in the next two years I wouldn't be surprised if these Representatives were selling their DC homes after November 2008.

[Verily]

Unless she faces another joke, Heather Wilson will lose. Shays will struggle without Lieberman and in a Presidential year. Reichert doesn't seem like a very good campaigner. Gerlach is the most likely to hold on.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I voted Gerlach and Reichert, although its not unimagineable to see all of them going down.  Heather Wilson is the most talented campaigner and incumbent of them all, IMO.

[J. J.]

None.  2006 was the basement, like 1994 for the Democrats; now the GOP will make gains in the House.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think it depends on who are the candidates of the respective parties for president, as well as how the democratic congress does in the next 2 years. Bush will still be unpopular.

I think Wilson will be vulnerable; Shays's seat is his until he dies or retires, but the Democrats will try to take it nonetheless.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.

[Keystone Phil]

Wilson will likely go down because the NM Dem legislature is redistricting to throw in a few more heavily Hispanic communities into her district (pulling a Tom Delay). That would be great if she somehow survived though. The others will win.

[ndcohn]

reichert will be tough - his popularity in key swing areas of the district is shocking [he "caught" the green river killer and has decades old relationships]. I think it will take a candidate with strong name recognition, a strong base, and some experience to defeat reichert. I vote Gerlach - on the assumption that the next Democratic candidate doesn't run a hyper mediated campaign like murphy

[So the Heroes Fall]

I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.

Only one that's possible is Walsh. I'm still wondering how Kuhl was even vulnerable, that's a very safe Republican district, even in a year like that. And Reynolds was only vulnerable because of Foley, he also has a very solidly Republican district (not all that conservative, but quite Republican)

Walsh on the other hand, is probably done if he faces a rather strong candidate. Maffei wasn't all that great.

As far as the poll goes:

-Wilson is safe, unless the redistricting happens.
-Shays might be in trouble, Lieberman and Rell gave CT Republicans a boost. Lamont is considering a run too.
-Reichert is far too right wing for his district, but he's a good campaigner and has a base of popularity. It'll take an exceptionally strong candidate to take him out, although neither Ross or Burner was all that strong.
-Gerlach also needs a fairly strong candidate. But being a presidential year will hurt him.

[Galactic Overlord]

I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.

Only one that's possible is Walsh. I'm still wondering how Kuhl was even vulnerable, that's a very safe Republican district, even in a year like that. And Reynolds was only vulnerable because of Foley, he also has a very solidly Republican district (not all that conservative, but quite Republican)

Walsh on the other hand, is probably done if he faces a rather strong candidate. Maffei wasn't all that great.

Kuhl performed rather weakly in his initial election with only 51%, though a Conservative Party candidate siphoned off 6%. Reynolds also was held to 55% in 2004 by Jack Davis. I don't know why these two didn't perform as they should prior to 2006, though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.

Only one that's possible is Walsh. I'm still wondering how Kuhl was even vulnerable, that's a very safe Republican district, even in a year like that. And Reynolds was only vulnerable because of Foley, he also has a very solidly Republican district (not all that conservative, but quite Republican)

Kohl is a wife-beater. It may be NY's most conservative district, but that's still hurting him. Reynolds saved his ass by playing that blizzard for every ounce it was worth. That blizzard and bad weather on election day may have helped the other 2 as well. Reynolds' had a lazy opponent.

The current districts in NY had 11 districts designed for Republicans. 3 incumbent and 2 open seats have since flipped to the Democrats. It's not unreasonable to expect the 3 who barely won this time to be vulnerable in 2008.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Lamont is considering a run too.

Where did you hear this?  That would be cool.

[So the Heroes Fall]

One of the CT posters said it, the guy who changes his avatar a lot.

[Big DaddyTX]

I doubt that Lamont will run. If he does, Chris will still manage to beat him.

 I say Wilson will be the next to go down.

[Senator X]

 I hope Shays wins!

[So the Heroes Fall]

I hope Shays wins!

Change your avatar.

[Senator X]

I hope Shays wins!

Change your avatar.

But regester Democrat when I can vote, right?

[MarkWarner08]

Joe Knollenberg is a likely candidate to lose or retire in 2008. He only won reelection by 51%-46% despite outspending his opponent $2.8 million to $400 K. This Oakland COunty based district is trending Democratic. Knollenberg could be another Phil Crane or Curt Weldon -- a long time Congressman who's not a great campaigner.