I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.
Only one that's possible is Walsh. I'm still wondering how Kuhl was even vulnerable, that's a very safe Republican district, even in a year like that. And Reynolds was only vulnerable because of Foley, he also has a very solidly Republican district (not all that conservative, but quite Republican)
Walsh on the other hand, is probably done if he faces a rather strong candidate. Maffei wasn't all that great.
As far as the poll goes:
-Wilson is safe, unless the redistricting happens.
-Shays might be in trouble, Lieberman and Rell gave CT Republicans a boost. Lamont is considering a run too.
-Reichert is far too right wing for his district, but he's a good campaigner and has a base of popularity. It'll take an exceptionally strong candidate to take him out, although neither Ross or Burner was all that strong.
-Gerlach also needs a fairly strong candidate. But being a presidential year will hurt him.
Poll
