I think that one of the western NY Republicans who barely managed to win this time will be defeated.
Only one that's possible is Walsh. I'm still wondering how Kuhl was even vulnerable, that's a very safe Republican district, even in a year like that. And Reynolds was only vulnerable because of Foley, he also has a very solidly Republican district (not all that conservative, but quite Republican)
Kohl is a wife-beater. It may be NY's most conservative district, but that's still hurting him. Reynolds saved his ass by playing that blizzard for every ounce it was worth. That blizzard and bad weather on election day may have helped the other 2 as well. Reynolds' had a lazy opponent.
The current districts in NY had 11 districts designed for Republicans. 3 incumbent and 2 open seats have since flipped to the Democrats. It's not unreasonable to expect the 3 who barely won this time to be vulnerable in 2008.
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