2008 Senate predictions

[SPC]

my prediction. I know it's way too early, but whatever.

[Keystone Phil]

NH will not be a strong pickup if it even is a pickup. In fact, Colorado would be the strong pickup here.

[Verily]

Looks right; New Hampshire could be just as easily traded for Minnesota, though (or both flip).

[SPC]

I didn't say that NH was a strong pickup. D>50% means defeat of an incumbent. D>40% means taking an open seat, because Allard may retire.
I didn't put MN unless Franken isn't the candidate.

[AndrewTX]

I honestly don't see New Hampshire switching. I can only see it being a pickup is if Lynch changes his mind and jumps in the race.  He is either going to win with 50%, or 55% at the highest.  Colorado is going to be a pickup, regardless if Allard retires or not, we all know that. At the rate things are going, I see the only possible republican pick ups as Louisiana, or New Jersey.

So, Andrews quick predicitions that don't matter are.

Republican possible pick ups.

New Jersey, Louisiana, Delaware (if Biden retires to run for President)

Democrat possible pick ups.

New Hampshire, Minessota, Colorado, and maybe, maybe, MAYYBEEEEEEEEEEEE Texas, if they find the right candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Democrat possible pick ups.

 MAYYBEEEEEEEEEEEE Texas, if they find the right candidate.

No. Even though Cornyn is mediocre, he won't be losing his seat especially in a Presidential election year.

[Soaring Eagle]

I'm not going to make predictions until I know who is retiring, running, etc. However, I will make a map of states that could potentially be competitive.

Many of these depend on who is retiring. Harkin, Levin, Warner, and Stevens are all running, so I doubt those will flip. The others are uncertain. Cornyn is worth 34 electoral votes.

Dark = Competitive

[CPT MikeyMike]

I'm not going to make predictions until I know who is retiring, running, etc. However, I will make a map of states that could potentially be competitive.

Many of these depend on who is retiring. Harkin, Levin, Warner, and Stevens are all running, so I doubt those will flip. The others are uncertain. Cornyn is worth 34 electoral votes.

Dark = Competitive

Is Cochran or Baucus retiring? If not, they should win hands down unless there is something I dont know about them.


I think MA will be competivite if Kerry does run again. His approval ratings are terrible.

[Verily]

There's no Republican notable enough to mount a serious run against him in all of Massachusetts.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think MA will be competivite if Kerry does run again. His approval ratings are terrible.

Nope. No Republican is going to win in Massachusetts and no Democrat is going to win in Texas. Let's be realistic here.

[Soaring Eagle]

I'm not going to make predictions until I know who is retiring, running, etc. However, I will make a map of states that could potentially be competitive.

Many of these depend on who is retiring. Harkin, Levin, Warner, and Stevens are all running, so I doubt those will flip. The others are uncertain. Cornyn is worth 34 electoral votes.

Dark = Competitive

Is Cochran or Baucus retiring? If not, they should win hands down unless there is something I dont know about them.


I think MA will be competivite if Kerry does run again. His approval ratings are terrible.

Cochran may. Baucus' seat could be competitive if Rehberg runs, but he would still be the favorite.

As for Kerry, a Republican could not beat him in a state as liberal as MA. I was thinking more of a strong primary challenge.

[Nym90]

I see the Democrats gaining 1-2 seats. Where that'll be is hard to say, but barring a large GOP tide (unlikely in a Presidential election year, especially given Bush's current standing) the Republicans will have a hard time making the net gain they'd need to take back the Senate. The math is simply against them, as they'd have to win 67 percent of the seats up for election to win the Senate.

Of course, needing to win 73 percent of the seats up for election didn't stop the Democrats from taking the Senate this year, but historically such tides for one side or the other happen more often in a midterm than in a Presidential election year, especially recently.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think it is too early to predict individual races; but generally, Democrats gain up to 4 seats in the Senate while suffering one probable loss in Louisiana.

[Gustaf]

I stand by my prediction of Louisiana going Rep and New Hampshire, Minnesota and Colorado going Democrat.

In order of likeliness:

Colorado

Louisiana

New Hampshire

Minnesota

It will be a lot easier to predict once we know the candidates, of course. A lot of it is just guesswork at this stage.

[Deano963]

I don't see who is so strongly favored to defeat Landrieu seeing as how Jindal is running against Blanco. Then again, I guess if Jindal loses he would then turn around and run against Landrieu. I would rather he take out Blanco.

Virginia and Mississippi become very real pickup opportunities for the Democrats if Warner or Cochran retire. Same thing goes for North Carolina, although I don't see this happening b/c for some odd reason Liddy Dole seems to want to remain in the Senate and embarrass herself even further.

[SPC]

Worst Case Scenario for the GOP:

Dem (60)-40

Worst Case Scenario for the Dems:

GOP 55-(45)

[Padfoot]

NH & ME: Collins and Sununu go down in the Northeast continuing it's leftward march
NJ: Unless Lautenburg loses the primary Republicans take advantage of his awful aprroval ratings.
LA: Landrieu can't win unless everyone from New Orleans moves back in time for the election.  Even then she will be hard pressed to find victory since her approvla ratings took a large hit after Katrina.
MN: Coleman goes down unless the Democrats nominate Al Franken.
CO: Colorado continues its leftward march and after getting a liberal shove from the Democratic convention it boots Allard.
NM: This only happens if Richardson is on the presidential ticket.
OR: Smith's unpopularity with the anti-war crowd coupled with his 82% GOP voting record loses him the election.

Senate balance:
55 Democrats, 45 Republicans

[7,052,770]

Worst Case Scenario for the GOP:

Dem (60)-40

The Republican worst case scenario certainly includes losing Mississippi, where Mike Moore has a very good chance of winning an open seat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

NH & ME: Collins and Sununu go down in the Northeast continuing it's leftward march
NJ: Unless Lautenburg loses the primary Republicans take advantage of his awful aprroval ratings.
LA: Landrieu can't win unless everyone from New Orleans moves back in time for the election.  Even then she will be hard pressed to find victory since her approvla ratings took a large hit after Katrina.
MN: Coleman goes down unless the Democrats nominate Al Franken.
CO: Colorado continues its leftward march and after getting a liberal shove from the Democratic convention it boots Allard.
NM: This only happens if Richardson is on the presidential ticket.
OR: Smith's unpopularity with the anti-war crowd coupled with his 82% GOP voting record loses him the election.

Senate balance:
55 Democrats, 45 Republicans

I can't see a scenario where Collins and Lautenberg both lose.

[DownWithTheLeft]

NJ: Lautenberg 52- Kean Jr. 47
NH: Sununu 54 - Fmr. Gov Woman (name escapes me) 44
LA: Kennedy 52 - Landrieu 48
SD: Herseth 53 - Rounds 47
OR: Smith 56 - DeFazio 43
CO: Owens 53 - Udall 46 or Udall 55 - Tancredo - 42
MT: Rehburg - Baucus Too Close to Call

Venture more guesses later, hopefully these races turn out like my prediction of TX-23

[Padfoot]

NJ: Lautenberg 52- Kean Jr. 47
NH: Sununu 54 - Fmr. Gov Woman (name escapes me) 44
LA: Kennedy 52 - Landrieu 48
SD: Herseth 53 - Rounds 47
OR: Smith 56 - DeFazio 43
CO: Owens 53 - Udall 46 or Udall 55 - Tancredo - 42
MT: Rehburg - Baucus Too Close to Call

Venture more guesses later, hopefully these races turn out like my prediction of TX-23

I don't think Fmr. Govenor Woman (Jeanne Shaheen) is running in NH.
From Political Wire:

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[Conan]

Potential Pick Ups for Dems:
Maine
New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Oregon
Oklahoma
These don't include places where we could win if there was a retirement like VA or NM.

Realistic Dem Pick Ups:
Colorado
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Oregon

Most Realistic Dem:
Colorado
Minnesota

Potential Rep Pick Ups:
South Dakota (used to be out of the question)
Louisiana

Realistic and Most Realistic Rep:
Same as potential.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MT: Rehburg - Baucus Too Close to Call

You know, even if you think Rehburg is going to give up his safe House seat to run against a guy he's already lost to, you go to remember that this was also on the ballot back in 1996:



Yeah, I think that might've worked for some coattails.

2006, with Schweitzer on the ballot, the exact opposite will be true.

[Verily]

You mean 2008. Too much 2006 excitement.


My prediction:

Likely D
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean D
Colorado*

Toss-up
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Louisiana

Lean R
Maine
Oregon

Likely R
Oklahoma
Texas
Kentucky

*I just can't see any way for the Republicans to retain Colorado at this point. Udall is running and popular, Allard is unpopular, and, if he doesn't run, the state party has no good choice to replace him. (Owens won't run.)

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here's my rankings:

Remember of course at state like MI (likely Dem for the moment) could change if Levin retires

Strong Dem:
Delaware*, Illinois, Massachusetts*, Rhode Island, West Virginia

Likely Dem:
Michigan*, Arkansas, Iowa*

Lean Dem:
Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota*

Tossup:
Colorado*, Louisiana, Minnesota

Lean GOP:
New Hampshire, Oregon

Likely GOP:
Kentucky, Maine*, Mississippi*, New Mexico*, Texas

Strong GOP:
Alabama, Alaska*, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma*, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia*, Wyoming

*Potential retirement