2004: Bush v. Dean v. Nader
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2004: Bush v. Dean v. Nader
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Author Topic: 2004: Bush v. Dean v. Nader  (Read 1282 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: December 30, 2006, 06:50:28 PM »

It is the week before the election in 2004. Suddenly, both John Kerry and John Edwards die in a plane crash. People are suspicious that the Bush administration is behind it, but they insist it was an engine failure. Kerry/Edwards is still on the ballot because of a court ruling. Ralph Nader rises up to 10% in polls

Scenario 1: Howard Dean announces a write-in campaign for president. All votes for Kerry/Edwards get counted for unpledged Democratic delegates, similar to 1960.

Scenario 2: Delegates for Kerry/Edwards pledge their votes to Howard Dean.

Make maps for each scenario.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2006, 08:24:31 PM »



Bush 516
Dean 22
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Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
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« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2007, 11:39:20 AM »

Nader said he wouldn't run if a candidate opposing the Iraq war ran.

Bush landslide.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2007, 01:21:23 PM »


Blue=Bush    Red=Unpledged     Green=Dean (WI)

Bush 516
Dean(WI) 3
Unpledged Electors 19:
Dean 9
Clark 8
Kucinich 1

VP:
Cheney 516
Clark (WI) 3
Clark 7
Dean 7
Kucinich 3
Lieberman 2

Bush/Cheney           65%
Kerry/Edwards         20%
Dean/Clark (WI)       15%
Nader/Camejo          10%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2007, 01:22:40 PM »

LOL at NY voting for Bush.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2007, 01:40:38 PM »


Read the scenario before you insult.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2007, 06:00:41 PM »

New York still wouldn't vote for Bush.
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Colin
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2007, 08:23:27 PM »

There was actually a scenario similar to this in 1872. Democratic/Liberal Republican candidate Horace Greeley died before the electoral college vote. His votes were then split several ways among his VP and several other Democratic candidates.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2007, 09:34:16 PM »

Nader said during the primaries that he wouldn't run if Dean or Kucinich were nominated by the Democrats.

And Dean loses about as badly as Dukakis did, maybe he fares a bit better due to polarization.  I made a map for a Dean/Bush race a while back, maybe I can find it.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2007, 09:36:27 PM »

Found it rather quickly

A Dukakis-type defeat for Dean.



Bush/Cheney 356 EV's, 54% PV
Dean/Feingold 182 EV's, 45% PV
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TomC
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2007, 09:39:58 PM »

I think Tweed's map is right on the money.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2007, 05:19:09 AM »

I think that map may be a bit rough on Dean (if it was a normal election anyway).

Someone should make a map for Dean vs. Bush 2007.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2007, 02:05:21 PM »

Found it rather quickly

A Dukakis-type defeat for Dean.



Bush/Cheney 356 EV's, 54% PV
Dean/Feingold 182 EV's, 45% PV

i'm guessing that this is Scenario 2.
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