Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 25, 2014, 10:03:49 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Control of the House
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Control of the House  (Read 7475 times)
raggage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 506


View Profile
« on: June 29, 2004, 11:01:31 pm »
Ignore

Who will end up in control of the house in '04..... I know there are alot of threads on possible seats changing party but does anyone think that the Dems could win... I think they will net gain 2 seats, maybe 3, but not enough so, with a tear in my eye, i've gotta say republican.
Logged

Economic Left/Right: -5.12
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.72

g]
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52506


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2004, 11:03:03 pm »
Ignore

House stays Republicans and the GOP will gain seats, too.
Logged


Never any doubt.
opebo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47607


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2004, 11:33:02 pm »
Ignore

This one is a bit easier to predict.
Logged

The essence of democracy at its purest is a lynch mob

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57035
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2004, 03:26:25 am »
Ignore

The Texas Gerrymander was supposed to act as a kind of electoral insurance policy... problem is most of the lame duck incumbents are currently leading in their districts...

Overall a lot of incumbents are in for tough races this and their are a good number of open seats...

The GOP should hang on, but don't bet the farm on it.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2004, 06:54:29 am »
Ignore

I miss "Third Party in Control"! Smiley
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35768
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2004, 04:20:08 pm »
Ignore

GOP
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
AuH2O
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4246


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2004, 05:03:35 pm »
Ignore

Easy GOP hold, few seat gain probably. Bush coattails in Texas and other GOP strongholds...
Logged

don't forget to remember, the devil's got pills in his eyes

look, laugh, but don't touch... cut you down to size
raggage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 506


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2004, 10:20:40 pm »
Ignore

Easy GOP hold, few seat gain probably. Bush coattails in Texas and other GOP strongholds...

Damned redistricting.
Logged

Economic Left/Right: -5.12
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.72

g]
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35768
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2004, 04:40:25 pm »
Ignore

Easy GOP hold, few seat gain probably. Bush coattails in Texas and other GOP strongholds...

Damned redistricting.

Damned Tom DeLay!
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1761


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2004, 09:01:34 pm »
Ignore

The GOP's gains in TX (3-6 seats) will be cancelled out by Dem gains in NY WA and CO (1 or 2 each).  The GOP has maxed out their control and by maxing out our nationa's credit cards have ed their (I disown them) position in the House in terms of gains in the fiscaly conservative but socially moderate to liberal North and West.
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32353


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2004, 01:50:29 am »
Ignore

Kind of hard for the Democrats to win back the House when there was an ultra-partisan Texas gerrymander which was to ensure that the "House remain Republican no matter what the national mood".

"No matter what the national mood"?

Why bother even having an election? Grrrrrrrrrr......
Logged
Ethelberth
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1397
Suriname


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2004, 06:05:14 am »
Ignore

Reps will win because of Texas
Otherwise Dems would retake the house
Logged
zorkpolitics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1042
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2004, 08:16:47 pm »
Ignore

I expect  little change among incumbents, but the Republicans will gain maybe 3 seats in TX, while losing several open seats, notably in NY, KY, WA, CO.  For a net Democratic gain, but not enough to win control
Logged

"Scientists are treacherous allies on committees, for they are apt to change their minds in response to arguments" C.M. Bowra
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15214
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2004, 10:09:34 am »
Ignore

My prediction is that the Dems will pick up 5 seats...the House will be close, but GOP hangs on to control.
Logged
Mr. Fresh
faulfrisch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1359
United States
Political Matrix
E: -0.45, S: 2.17

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2004, 02:53:12 am »
Ignore

I put the Republicans, but I think they'll only gain a seat or two.  I've say +-2 both ways.
Logged
raggage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 506


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: July 04, 2004, 04:02:00 am »
Ignore

I was just thinking, surely the Democrats could 'gerrymander' in heavily democratic states like California and New York and re-district to kick out republicans like how the reverse has happened in Texas.

Perhaps its the Republican governors stopping it.
Logged

Economic Left/Right: -5.12
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.72

g]
ijohn57s
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 450


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2004, 03:22:23 pm »
Ignore

The GOP picks up 6 or 7 seats.
Logged

For when we were yet without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly. For scarcely for a righteous man will one die: yet peradventure for a good man some would even dare to die. But God commendeth his love toward us, in that,  while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Romans 5:6-8
zorkpolitics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1042
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2004, 10:43:38 pm »
Ignore

The current open seats (except TX) favor the Democrats in that more are in districts Gore won than in districts Bush won
Probably a net 3-5 for the Democrats
I don't expect more than a net 1-2 gain for the Democrats among incumbents
But TX will give the Republicans a net 3, and possibly up to 5
So Republicans should retain control but with a reduced majority
Logged

"Scientists are treacherous allies on committees, for they are apt to change their minds in response to arguments" C.M. Bowra
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines