Dean disaster in NH, where does he go from here?

[emergingDmajority1]

No momentum at all, all week I've been hearing about him closing the gap, but that never materialized as kerry won in a double digit snoozer.

Does he have a chance to win any of the feb. 3 states, it's only a week away and it seems like the "yaaargh" had a bigger impact on the south and west than it did up north in cosy NH where he'll get his 20-25 no matter what.

it's not so much damage control anymore, you're looking at a candidate who people have just soured on. The message isn't getting through, Iraq is not the big issue anymore and people hate his idea of getting rid of all the bush tax cuts, he scares away too many middle class voters who want to keep it. These people flocked to kerry. nobody wants there taxes raised.

Look at the feb. 3 primary states, Dean might not win a single one. Edwards put all his eggs in SC back in June, that's his. Oklahoma is Edwards/Clark/Kerry territory, Missouri wil probably follow Iowa with Kerry #1 and Edwards #2. I believe Kerry is surging in NM and will put Dean away, Edwards and Clark will fight for 2 and 3. ND is so conservative and sparse, they might warm up to Edwards or just go Kerry.

Arizona? Who knows

Delaware, I guess he can win this, but the kerry momentum will carry over.

This distant 2nd today hurts alot worse than Iowa. He never recovered, he never came close to recovering!

[Dave from Michigan]

Where can he go from here?

Home.

[emergingDmajority1]

yea, and tell him to take Liebermaniac with him

I kid, I kid

I know it's good to be optimistic, but some of the things Joe says.....

[Dave from Michigan]

I suppose if he gets 2nd in most of these primaries he could stay in but eventally He will have to win somthing. But most likely he will be overcome by the Kerry campaiqn and lose. I think Kerry will win the nommination.

[emergingDmajority1]

it looks like it, but I have a feeling this campaign has one more turn. sort of like in a baseball game where it looks like it's over but it's really not since you know the other team has a crappy bullpen. Well the South can be Kerry's crappy bullpen. I really hope Edwards can take SC and make a strong showing next week.

[Nation]

If Dean can keep the delegate count close count after the rush through the south, and still be quite viable for March 2nd, of course he's going to stay in. He  has the money, the loyal supporters, and it will eventually become an extremely close three way race between Dean/Kerry/Edwards that might be decided by the superdelegates. February 3rd might give us a better indicator of where things are going, but I think we'll have to wait till Super Tuesday.

[Gustaf]

Where will he go?

He will go to Missouri and Delaware and SOUTH CAROLINA AND ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA AND NEW YORK AND TEXAS AND THEN HE'LL GO TO  WASHINGTON D.C. AND TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE! YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRGHHHHHHHH!

LOL...sorry, just had to...

[Sibboleth]

Dean's in big trouble; NH was his second best state until recently. If he can't win in his strongholds, where can he?

[NHPolitico]

it looks like it, but I have a feeling this campaign has one more turn. sort of like in a baseball game where it looks like it's over but it's really not since you know the other team has a crappy bullpen. Well the South can be Kerry's crappy bullpen. I really hope Edwards can take SC and make a strong showing next week.

You could see voters having voter remorse since it looks like a Kerry romp.  They could make someone else the frontrunner and see how they do in that spot.

[Gustaf]

Dean's in big trouble; NH was his second best state until recently. If he can't win in his strongholds, where can he?

Exactly. Dean is falling fast, he will do badly on Feb 3rd and that will be the death-blow to his campaign.

[jravnsbo]

Dean now heads to the desert.  He will work on AZ and NM.  He will try and pull out a win there with big media buys that may overlap.

Clark is heading to OK ( still leading after IA) and SC

Lieberman to OK, DE, SC

Edwards a must in SC, but he also has possibilities in OK, MO ( wide open)

Kerry is keying on MO

Sharpton- getting 15% in polls in SC, enough for delegates

Kucinich--ND and NM ( but who really cares)

[© Tweed the Younger]

Dean should still win the March 2nd Vermont Primary.

[Gustaf]

Dean should still win the March 2nd Vermont Primary.

Yeah, kind of sad to end up with nothing but that and D.C...

[© Tweed the Younger]

Dean should still win the March 2nd Vermont Primary.

Yeah, kind of sad to end up with nothing but that and D.C...

It's something.  Sharpton will poll ahead of him in SC.

[Gustaf]

Dean should still win the March 2nd Vermont Primary.

Yeah, kind of sad to end up with nothing but that and D.C...

It's something.  Sharpton will poll ahead of him in SC.

Hopefully, Sharpton will beat Clark as well in SC, that would kill him!

[© Tweed the Younger]

IF edwards wins 2 or 3 2/3 states he is still in it.

[Gustaf]

IF edwards wins 2 or 3 2/3 states he is still in it.

Yep, but I doubt that he will, not after finishing 4th in NH. He will still get SC, but little else. And even if he is still in it, he wont get the momentum to beat Kerry on Super Tuesday.

[Sibboleth]

I think that your overestimating the importance of the NH result (at least as far as Edwards is concerned)

Edwards is a populist and is southern. NH is rich and Yankee. Both Dean and Kerry come from states bordering NH. Edwards' was polling insanely low in NH until recently. He did not want to campaign in NH at all and probably only did to hurt Clark's numbers.
And so on.

[emergingDmajority1]

what Edwards did in NH was neutralize Clark, they were only separated by 500 or so votes despite Wesley spending all that time and money in NH. Now Edwards comes out with still a tiny bit of momentum from Iowa while Clark has none at all. He will best Clark in SC, but how will Kerry play there?

[Dave from Michigan]

I think Kerry will get 2nd or 3rd in South Carolina

[Gustaf]

I think that your overestimating the importance of the NH result (at least as far as Edwards is concerned)

Edwards is a populist and is southern. NH is rich and Yankee. Both Dean and Kerry come from states bordering NH. Edwards' was polling insanely low in NH until recently. He did not want to campaign in NH at all and probably only did to hurt Clark's numbers.
And so on.

Well, my point isn't really that Edwards was hurt by his NH result, I don't think he is, rather that he did not gain anything. My main point is that Kerry added to his momentum and polls are showing that Edwards does not have the Southern strength required to take on Kerry wíthout some momentum of his own. He could have gotten that in NH, but now he didn't. I agree that the abysmal result of Clark improves Edwards situation. I still think Edwards will win SC, and possibly 1 or 2 more states nesxt Tuesday, but that wont be enough to give him the nomination.

[emergingDmajority1]

I still think Edwards will win SC, and possibly 1 or 2 more states nesxt Tuesday, but that wont be enough to give him the nomination.

all depends on the hatchet job they do on kerry this week