Canada 2004: Gains and Losses

[Sibboleth]

Gains and Losses are based on notional results, calculated by adding CA and PC totals from 2000, and using the new electoral boundaries. By-elections are ignored

Atlantic[/i]

Newfoundland and Labrador

No change

Prince Edward Island

Liberal Gain from Conservative:

Cardigan

Nova Scotia

Liberal Gain from Conservative:

Kings-Hants
West Nova

Liberal Gain from NDP

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour

New Brunswick

Liberal Gain from Conservative

Fredericton
Saint John
Tobique-Mactaquac
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lib  +7
Con -6
NDP -1

[Sibboleth]

Quebec

BQ Gain from Liberal

Alfred-Pellan
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
Compton-Stanstead
Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Mégantic-L'Erable
Nunavik-Eeyou
Portneuf
Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Saint-Maurice-Champlain
Saint-Lambert
Shefford

BQ Gain from Conservative

Richmond-Arthabaska
------------------------------------------------------------------------
BQ +12
Lib -11
Con -1

[Vasall des Midas]

Provincial results:
Newfoundland
Lib 48,0 5
Con 32,3 2
NDP 17,5 0
Turnout 49,2

Nova Scotia
Lib 39,6 6
NDP 28,5 2
Con 28,0 3
turnout 61,7

PEI
Lib 52,5 4
Con 30,7
NDP 12,5
Turnout 70,7

NB
Lib 44,6 7
Con 31,1 2
NDP 20,6 1
Turnout 62,1

Québec
BQ 48,8 54
Lib 33,9 21
Con 8,8
NDP 4,6
Turnout 59,0

Ontario
Lib 44,7 75
Con 31,5 24
NDP 18,1 7
Turnout 61,7

Manitoba
Con 39,1 7
Lib 33,2 3
NDP 23,5 4
Turnout 56,5

Saskatchewan
Con 41,8 13
Lib 27,2 1
NDP 23,4
Turnout 59,1

Alberta
Con 61,6 26
Lib 22,0 2
NDP 9,5
Turnout 59,4

BC
Con 36,2 22
Lib 28,6 8
NDP 26,6 5
one independent elected
Turnout 63,6

Territories 3 Libs elected, NDP beats Cons everywhere.

There's a few odd facts here...
The NDP polls about the same percentage in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, but gets 4 seats in one state, 0 in the other.
They also outpoll the Tories in Nova Scotia but get fewer seats.
The pattern of turnout is interesting, the low turnout in New Found Land especially remarkable.
The "Vote Splitting" debate might shift from the right to the left now. Libs and NDP outpolled Cons and BQ (not a quite legitimate coupling, I know) about 52-42, but took only just as many seats. In Saskatchewan, they outpolled the Coneservatives by roughly the same margin, but took one paltry seat!

[Sibboleth]

The problem in Sask is the INSANE riding boundaries... in most (no... ALL) the other provinces, you get urban ridings, rural ridings and suburban ridings.
Not in Saskatchewan.
In Sask you get "Rurban" ridings... both Regina and Saskatoon are split 4 ways and combined with surrounding rural areas.
The upshot of which is something of a pro-conservative gerrymander... in 1988 the NDP won a higher % of the vote in Sask than the CPC did this year. But although they won most of the provinces ridings, the PC's won a large amount as well. And that was when the boundaries were more favourable to the Dippers than they are now.

[Sibboleth]

British Columbia

NDP Gain from Conservative

Burnaby-Douglas
Burnaby-New Westminster
Nanaimo-Cowichan
Skeena-Bulkley Valley

Liberal Gain from Conservative

Vancouver Quadra
North Vancouver
Richmond
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

Independent Gain from Conservative

Surrey North

NOTE: there is a recount soon in New Westminster-Coquitlam
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Con  -9
NDP +4
Lib   +4
Ind  +1

[Sibboleth]

Alberta

Liberal gain from Conservative

Edmonton Centre

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Con -1
Lib  +1

[Sibboleth]

Saskatchewan

Conservative gain from NDP

Regina-Qu'Appelle

Conservative gain from Liberal

Churchill River

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Con +2
NDP -1
Lib - 1

Note: the perverse riding boundaries of Sask strike again.
 The Conservative vote fell by 10%

[Sibboleth]

Manitoba

No Change

[Vasall des Midas]

Some nice three way marginals...
Oshawa (Onto)
CPC 33,2
NDP 32,2
Lib 30,5
Hamilton Mountain (Onto)
Lib 34,6
NDP 33,2
CPC 29,2
Kenora (Onto)
Lib 35,8
NDP 32,2
CPC 28,1
Regina - Lumsden - Lake Centre (Sask)
CPC 33,2
Lib 32,8
NDP 26,8
Regina - Qu'Appelle (Sask)
CPC 35,8
NDP 32,6
Lib 27,9
Newton - North Delta (BC)
CPC 32,8
Lib 31,6
NDP 29,2
Fleetwood - Port Kells (BC)
CPC 35,9
Lib 29,5
NDP 27,9
Burnaby - Douglas (BC)
NDP 34,6
Lib 32,6
CPC 27,6
Burnaby - New Westminster (BC)
NDP 33,9
Lib 32,9
CPC 28,3
New Westminster - Cocquitlam (BC)
CPC 32,8
NDP 32,7
Lib 27,3

And a four-way marginal!
Saskatoon- Humboldt (Sask)
CPC 26,8
NDP 25,5
Lib 25,4
Pankiw (i) 20,2

[Sibboleth]

Oshawa (Onto)
CPC 33,2
NDP 32,2
Lib 30,5

Oshawa is just... weird. Really, really weird...

Hamilton Mountain (Onto)
Lib 34,6
NDP 33,2
CPC 29,2

Happend in the '80's a couple of times as well

Kenora (Onto)
Lib 35,8
NDP 32,2
CPC 28,1

The Howie factor!

Regina - Lumsden - Lake Centre (Sask)
CPC 33,2
Lib 32,8
NDP 26,8

One of those rurban gerrymanders...

Regina - Qu'Appelle (Sask)
CPC 35,8
NDP 32,6
Lib 27,9

And another one... Nystrom blames "Liberal scare mongering" about a possible CPC government. Easy to see why isn't it?

Newton - North Delta (BC)
CPC 32,8
Lib 31,6
NDP 29,2

Looks interesting for next years BC election

Fleetwood - Port Kells (BC)
CPC 35,9
Lib 29,5
NDP 27,9

Dippers did better in that riding than I'd of expected

Burnaby - Douglas (BC)
NDP 34,6
Lib 32,6
CPC 27,6

Has been represented by the opposite ends of the NDP: Tommy Douglas and Svend Robinson

Burnaby - New Westminster (BC)
NDP 33,9
Lib 32,9
CPC 28,3

Although a traditional Dipper area, this result suprises me: the Grit had been running a very strong campaign.

New Westminster - Cocquitlam (BC)
CPC 32,8
NDP 32,7
Lib 27,3

Wait for the recount...

And a four-way marginal!
Saskatoon- Humboldt (Sask)
CPC 26,8
NDP 25,5
Lib 25,4
Pankiw (i) 20,2

Another rurban gerrymander. Pankiw is Saskatchewan's version of the Oxley Moron.

[Vasall des Midas]

Who is the Oxley Moron?

[Sibboleth]

Who is the Oxley Moron?

Hanson. She was called that because:

1) She was the M.P for Oxley (a suburb of Brisbane)
2) She is a racist moron

[bullmoose88]

What happened to landslide annie?

I assume she won, but again, that race was going back and forth.

[Trilobyte]

What happened to landslide annie?

I assume she won, but again, that race was going back and forth.

She won, relatively easily this time:

Anne McLellan (LIB).................... 22561 (42.49%)  
Laurie Hawn (CON)....................... 21850 (41.15%)  
Meghan McMaster (NDP)................. 4836 (9.11%)