Bush by 12% in Arizona

[The Vorlon]

Oh goodie....

A tiny sample University poll done in the summer.

Actually, internals look "ok" as far as I can judge..

But stll 400 sample size => +/- 5%

No warranty expressed or implied

Bush 47%
Kerry 35%
Nader 2%
Undecided = 16%

Actual Arizona Voter Registration Data

Total Registered = 2274367

GOP = 920556 = 40.47%
DEM = 807389 = 35.50%
IND = 546422 = 24.03%

http://www.sos.state.az.us/election/Active_Voter_Count.pdf

Distribution in this sample:

GOP = 41%
DEM = 35%
IND = 24%

BUSH TAKES LEAD OVER KERRY IN ARIZONA

RATINGS FOR BUSH ON THE ECONOMY, TERRORISM, THE WAR IN IRAQ,
AND OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE IMPROVE

A new statewide poll of 400 registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University June 24-27, 2004, found that President George Bush's ratings for his handling of the economy, the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq all have improved since last month. Fifty percent of those interviewed approved of the way Bush is handling the economy, up from 41 percent last month. Fifty-two percent approved of the way Bush is handling the war against terrorism, up from 51 percent in May, and 44 percent approved of the way the president is handling the war in Iraq, up from 39 percent in May. A majority of registered voters (52 percent) now approves of the job he is doing as president, up from 48 percent in May.

The poll also found that Bush is now leading Sen. John Kerry in Arizona 47 percent to 35 percent. Ralph Nader is receiving 2 percent of the vote, and 16 percent said they are undecided. In May, Bush received 48 percent of the vote to Kerry's 41 percent, which was a statistical tie due to the margin of error in the poll.

Kerry voters were again more likely to be voting against Bush than for Kerry. Thirty-six percent said they were really voting for Kerry, 56 percent against Bush and 8 percent said they were voting both for Kerry and against Bush. On the other hand, Bush voters were more likely to be voting for Bush (76 percent) than against Kerry (19 percent). Five percent of the Bush voters said they were both for Bush and against Kerry.

Bush seems to be gaining in Arizona because Democrats are more likely to cross over to vote for Bush (14 percent) than Republicans are willing to desert their party to vote for Kerry (6 percent). In May, neither candidate benefited from a crossover factor. In addition, independents are now evenly divided between Bush (38 percent) and Kerry (37 percent). In May, independents favored Kerry (47 percent) over Bush (35 percent).

The survey also found that a "gender gap" exists in Arizona with women evenly divided between Bush (41 percent) and Kerry (38 percent) but men more likely to support Bush (55 percent) than Kerry (31 percent). Bush also does well with churchgoers. Voters from households in which at least one member attends religious services frequently or occasionally support Bush over Kerry 50 percent to 32 percent, with Nader getting 1 percent and 17 percent undecided. The vote is evenly divided between Bush and Kerry among those from households in which at least one member only occasionally or rarely attend religious services. Forty-four percent were voting for Bush, 39 percent Kerry, 1 percent were for Nader and 16 percent were still undecided.

According to Dr. Bruce Merrill, who conducted the poll, "It appears President Bush has now pulled ahead of Sen. Kerry in the race for the presidency in Arizona. Bush's lead is based on attracting more conservative Democrats, doing better among independent voters and strengthening his appeal to male voters. While Bush's ratings on the economy, the war on terrorism and the way he is handling the war in Iraq are still low, Kerry has not convinced Arizona voters he is a better choice than Bush. Bush has maintained his position while there has been considerable negative publicity the past few months. This indicates that if things go better in the economy and in Iraq, Bush's support in Arizona will likely increase. There are still a lot of crises and issues facing the country that are likely to result in volatile public opinion. Polls only measure public opinion at a particular moment in time and there are still five months before the election."

The statewide poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. Forty-eight percent of those interviewed were female, 52 percent male. Fifty-eight percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 18 percent in Pima County, and 24 percent in the less populated counties. The sample consisted of 41 percent Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and 24 percent independents. Women were slightly over-represented (58 percent) in the sample, so sex was statistically weighted to match the proportion of women among registered voters.

1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president of the United States?

approve  52%
disapprove 43%
don't know/no opinion 5%  

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the U.S. economy?
   
approve  50%
disapprove 44%  
don't know/no opinion 6%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war against terrorism?
 
approve 52%  
disapprove  44%
don't know/no opinion 4%

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq?

approve 44%  
disapprove 50%  
don't know/no opinion 6%  

5. In the upcoming presidential election, will you probably vote for:
 
Republican George Bush 47%
Democrat John Kerry 35%
independent candidate Ralph Nader 2%  
don't know/no opinion 16%

6. ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR BUSH OR KERRY: Overall, would you say you are voting more for (candidate chosen) or against (candidate not chosen)?
   
  Kerry Bush  
for 36%  76%
against  56% 19%
both 8% 5%

[Blue Rectangle]

OK, the Mason-Dixon poll on CO showed Bush +5--a little low, I thought, but not unreasonable.  Bush has a lead in AZ that beats his CO lead by 7?  I'd love to believe that, but forget it.
The sample contained 35% Democrats and Kerry got 35% of the "vote".  So Kerry got zero Independent votes?  Which leads me to the next question:

"Independent" definitely means different things in different states.  CO and AZ are generally right-leaning and therefore Inpedendents are more likely to break for Republicans.  Do you have exit polls for state-by-state voting trends for Independents?

[© Tweed the Younger]

Is there a graphic?  

[CARLHAYDEN]

OK, the Mason-Dixon poll on CO showed Bush +5--a little low, I thought, but not unreasonable.  Bush has a lead in AZ that beats his CO lead by 7?  I'd love to believe that, but forget it.
The sample contained 35% Democrats and Kerry got 35% of the "vote".  So Kerry got zero Independent votes?  Which leads me to the next question:

"Independent" definitely means different things in different states.  CO and AZ are generally right-leaning and therefore Inpedendents are more likely to break for Republicans.  Do you have exit polls for state-by-state voting trends for Independents?

While the poll size is a little on the small size, it does jibe with private polls in Arizona.

To explain the difference between Arizona and Colorado, you need to know that many registered Democrats in Arizona are quite conservative.  They register Democrat, elect conservative Democrats to local and state legislative offices, and vote Republican for most statewide, and all national offices.

There was an absurd poll released a couple of weeks ago alledging Arizona as a close state (small Bush lead).  I called that poll absurd (as it was).

[CARLHAYDEN]

OK, the Mason-Dixon poll on CO showed Bush +5--a little low, I thought, but not unreasonable.  Bush has a lead in AZ that beats his CO lead by 7?  I'd love to believe that, but forget it.
The sample contained 35% Democrats and Kerry got 35% of the "vote".  So Kerry got zero Independent votes?  Which leads me to the next question:

"Independent" definitely means different things in different states.  CO and AZ are generally right-leaning and therefore Inpedendents are more likely to break for Republicans.  Do you have exit polls for state-by-state voting trends for Independents?

While the poll size is a little on the small size, it does jibe with private polls in Arizona.

To explain the difference between Arizona and Colorado, you need to know that many registered Democrats in Arizona are quite conservative.  They register Democrat, elect conservative Democrats to local and state legislative offices, and vote Republican for most statewide, and all national offices.

There was an absurd poll released a couple of weeks ago alledging Arizona as a close state (small Bush lead).  I called that poll absurd (as it was).

[Blue Rectangle]

Conventional Democratic Wisdom on this site has been that CO and AZ are in play.  I'm pretty sure that Kerry doesn't have a chance here, but I wasn't so certain about AZ.  Also, the role of Hispanics in AZ is much greater than their role in CO.  I had good reasons to believe that AZ was less safe for Bush than CO.
It seems a little doubtful that McCain could have so much impact, but he did mend ties with Bush just recently.  Could that explain the sudden firming of Bush support in AZ?

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, the partisan voter registration advantage understates the vote for national Republicans in Arizona for the reasons I previously cited.

Second, the hispanic vote if far from a Kerry vote.  

Third, McCain is vastly over-rated.  

[struct310]

Its not so hard to believe this poll, especially from such a Kerry friendly polling group as Bruce Merrill and ASU.  I have met Merrill before.  He did a lecture on how the hispanic vote will rise up and probably vote democratic.  Nice guy, but theres been no rising up.  And many of the democrats here are very conservative.  For the most part our governor is a libertarian democrat.  Shes still horrible, but thats not the worst thing we could have in office.  

[WalterMitty]

one important note to those who insist arizona is trending dem:

according to the 2000 exit poll:

of those who said they have moved to the state since 1990 bush won 52-42.

those who had been residents since prior to 1990, gore won  49-47

[Blue Rectangle]

one important note to those who insist arizona is trending dem:

according to the 2000 exit poll:

of those who said they have moved to the state since 1990 bush won 52-42.

those who had been residents since prior to 1990, gore won  49-47

Very interesting.  How many on these new Arizonans are Californian ex-pats that had their high tech job driven out of CA by that state's insanely anti-business policies?  I know that's the story for many new Coloradans.  Being mostly upper middle class families, they vote Bush in much higher percentages than one might expect for the average Californian.

New Mexico comes to mind as a state that shares a lot of similarities to AZ and CO when it comes to shifting demographics.  Many of the high-tech jobs there are public sector (Los Alamos, Sandia, etc.), but there are major chip fabs in Albuquerque (I'm not even going to try to spell it).  The chip industry was down in 2000, thanks to the dot-com fallout, but has recovered eariler than many other industries and is now quite strong.  This could play well for bush in AZ, CO, and TX (solid anyway), but also in NM and OR.

[The Vorlon]

one important note to those who insist arizona is trending dem:

according to the 2000 exit poll:

of those who said they have moved to the state since 1990 bush won 52-42.

those who had been residents since prior to 1990, gore won  49-47

Very interesting.  How many on these new Arizonans are Californian ex-pats that had their high tech job driven out of CA by that state's insanely anti-business policies?  I know that's the story for many new Coloradans.  Being mostly upper middle class families, they vote Bush in much higher percentages than one might expect for the average Californian.

New Mexico comes to mind as a state that shares a lot of similarities to AZ and CO when it comes to shifting demographics.  Many of the high-tech jobs there are public sector (Los Alamos, Sandia, etc.), but there are major chip fabs in Albuquerque (I'm not even going to try to spell it).  The chip industry was down in 2000, thanks to the dot-com fallout, but has recovered eariler than many other industries and is now quite strong.  This could play well for bush in AZ, CO, and TX (solid anyway), but also in NM and OR.

An interesting stat to follow that is very widely used is to track Driver's licences that are cancelled in one state and then re-taken out in another state.

It is a very cheap and quite accurate way to track migration from one state to another.

Califirnia is getting De-republicanized, and a lot of them are moving to Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, etc.

[raggage]

Conventional Democratic Wisdom on this site has been that CO and AZ are in play.  I'm pretty sure that Kerry doesn't have a chance here, but I wasn't so certain about AZ.  Also, the role of Hispanics in AZ is much greater than their role in CO.  I had good reasons to believe that AZ was less safe for Bush than CO.
It seems a little doubtful that McCain could have so much impact, but he did mend ties with Bush just recently.  Could that explain the sudden firming of Bush support in AZ?

Agreed, to some degree, but keep in mind Napolitano won the gubernatorial race, and if Richardson was VEEP then we could see close a very close race in Arizona, I'd say a true tossup.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Actually, the Republican nominee 'lost' the election, and Napolitano was elected because the Republican nominee had made the mistake of representing Qwest.

In Arizona in 2002 Qwest was understandably hated by Arizonans.  

If Salmon had NOT worked to Qwest, he probably would have been elected.

[struct310]

Actually, the Republican nominee 'lost' the election, and Napolitano was elected because the Republican nominee had made the mistake of representing Qwest.

In Arizona in 2002 Qwest was understandably hated by Arizonans.  

If Salmon had NOT worked to Qwest, he probably would have been elected.

No one cared really that Salmon had worked for Qwest.  The indy candidate Mahoney took 7% of the vote from Salmon and he wasnt a very exciting candidate.  I was really disappointed when he lost though.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I must respectully disagree.

Mahoney was elected Secretary of State a few years ago as a Democrat.

He has since morphed into an idiot.

Yes, people did vote against Salmon because of Qwest.

[struct310]

HAHAHA.  Carl do you remember seeing the tv ad with Mahoney during the campaign where he shovels crap and says he will do that for AZ?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Mahoney's campaign  two years ago is one of the contributors to the public support for repeal of taxpayer financing of campaigns.

His campaign was what he proposed to shovel.

[Shira]

MY assesment: -1% < Bush in AZ < 2%.
That's to say,  his  number in AZ will be from 1% below his national number to 2% above his national number.

[Beet]

MY assesment: -1% < Bush in AZ < 2%.
That's to say,  his  number in AZ will be from 1% below his national number to 2% above his national number.

Do you base this on something or is it just a guess?

[Shira]

Based on the fact that since 1988 the GOP have been loosing ground in AZ (not at the same pace as in FL)

[CARLHAYDEN]

You may not be aware of this Shira, but you picked a bizarre period in Arizona's Presidential election history.

In 1992 many conservative voters were mad as hell with the elder Bush.  Not only did he break his pledge on taxes, but he also backed attacks on gun owners.  Perot did very well in Arizona in 1992 with voters angry with Bush Sr.

In 1996 the Republicans nominated Dole, better know as the leading advocate of increased taxes.  Forbes kicked Dole's behind in the primary, and Buchanan did well in many areas (despite a primary system stacked against him).  Many conservatives could not bring themselves to vote for Dole (look at the Republican vote for President as contrasted to the vote for other offices).

In 2000 there was a split in the Arizona Republican party (it was the only primary outside the northeast where Democrats could not vote in the Republican primary that McCain carried).  Some McCain supporters set out the election hoping the Bush would lose.

Our current President has followed the policies of Reagan rather than those of his father, and has earned the admiration of Arizona Republicans, and conservative Democrats and Independents in the state.

In short, Bush should carry Arizona by at least ten per cent.  

[© Tweed the Younger]

How does Kerry only get 35%?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Simple,

Sixteen per cent of the respondents were undecided, so that means he has forty three per cent of the decideds.