Quick attempt at a Minnesota gerrymander

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I first tried to draw a district where Walz would be safe, and was largely succesful, even though Bush won by the district by less than a point he'd be safe there with the counties I put in mostly being ones he did well in plus some more Democratic counties from outside the district. (especially with the way Olmsted County is trending). The idea here too is that Minneapolis is split in half, half in the sort of purplish district, the other half in the brown. I'll try to calculate later how these districts would've voted.

Anyway, how does everyone think this map would turn out with winners?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, to explain further:

First of all, this should just be seen as a rough outline. In a real gerrymander, there'd be lots of split counties, counties would be split more precise than I have them here.

MN-1: The red district. As I said, I drew this to be safe for Walz. Though all the counties contained now voted for Bush by less than 1 point, it contains most of his strongest counties, and if I was going more into detail I'd tweak it a bit with splitting counties so it narrowly voted for Kerry. With the way Rochester is trending, it'd most likely stay Dem if he left it too.

MN-2: The crazy green district. Probably safe for Kline, I'd like to get rid of him, but that could only be done by making Walz more vulnerable. If Gutknecht was still around I might've tried.

MN-3: The brown district. Designed to get rid of Ramstad. I wanted to get rid of a Republican, and I'd rather do Kline or Bachmann, but he was the easiest (if I went more into detail though I'd draw a district where he'd get most heavily GOP exurban areas and Bachmann would get Dem ones.). About 30% of it would be south Minneapolis, another good margin would be Dem-leaning inner suburbs, and Ramstad's old district is also split in half, probably more in the purplish district (which would be heavily outvoted, more on that later) The rural areas would be tweaked to be less Republican in a more detailed map.

MN-4: Yellow district. More or less the same as it is now. Though going more detailed I'd slice off part of St. Paul and add it to MN-3 and take in more GOP areas to dilute Bachmann or Kline's strength...

MN-5: The purplish district. Contains north Minneapolis, some Dem-leaning suburbs, and some uber-GOP outer Hennepin exurbs. But they'll be heavily outvoted and we'll have a rather safe Dem seat, even if under 60% Kerry, 58% Kerry is still too tough to crack.

MN-6: Teal district. Probably safe for Bachmann.

MN-7: Purple district. Safe for Peterson, very competitive once he's gone, although another populist/conservative Democrat could hold it(side note: I'd actually bet on us holding Peterson's current seat if he retired now, just look at the local voting records), but it'd be tougher due to the inclusion of Wright county. I'd tweak this more detailed though and give most of the uber-GOP areas to MN-6.

MN-8: Oberstar's district not so much changed. I actually drew this with the goal of having St. Cloud not in Bachmann's district (since they don't deserve her). It actually voted 53% for Kerry with my new calculation, even though I drew it with a pro-life Democrat in mind (once Oberstar retires), so in a more detailed map I'd tweak it to be slightly higher for Bush with Dem areas given to MN-7.

Anyone have a plan that would put Bachmann in a district she could not possibly win?

Hmmm, here's two:

-Don't split Minneapolis and give Ramstad's district all of western Hennepin, and parts of Anoka and possibly Sherburne as well. Then add the rest of the suburbs/exurbs and Bachmann's home to Minneapolis.

-Add northern Ramsey county to the Minneapolis district, then have MN-4 take in Washington County. This puts McCollum and Bachmann in the same district where McCollum would easily win. Problem is this makes MN-6 vacant, and Bachmann could just move there and run there. Probably should go with the first plan.

[socaldem]

I don't like your gerrymander at all.  It's messy and I don't think it would affect the partisan balance much.  I would like to see some changes to the MN map, though.

MN-01

Tim Walz proved to be an adept politician and I think he's more than capable of holding his seat.  If it needs any strengthening, I'd do it by adding Rice County and subtracting the westernmost counties. 

I'd leave the North country pretty much unchanged except for a little attrition from MN-07 to MN-08 to make up for the additions from MN-01. 


MN-02 & MN-06

The only other changes I'd like to see are the Minneapolis suburbs split into Eastern and Western suburbs.

One district including Goodhue, Dakota, Washington, Chisago, and Anoka counties.  This district would be very very competitive and I could see a Dem winning it fairly easily.

The other district would include the GOP western exurbs stretching up to take in St. Cloud.

I would prefer to leave Ramstead alone, as he is a decent GOPer and his district is fairly cogent as is.  When he retires, it will certainly be competitive.

[RBH]

Here's my attempt:



MN-1: Close to a 50/50 district. Olmsted and Kandiyoshi are split.

MN-2: Around 55/45 R. Sherburne is split.

MN-3: All in Hennepin.

MN-4: Hennepin and a portion of Anoka.

MN-5: Ramsey and a portion of Anoka

MN-6: Another portion of Anoka, a portion of Olmsted. Around 55/45 Republican.

MN-7: Kandiyoshi and Crow Wing are split. 55/45 R.

MN-8: Crow Wing is slightly split.

Incumbents in each district-
MN-1: Walz
MN-2: Kline
MN-3: Ramstad or Ellison
MN-4: Ramstad or Ellison
MN-5: McCollum
MN-6: Open
MN-7: Peterson
MN-8: Oberstar and Bachmann

How about that?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-01

Tim Walz proved to be an adept politician and I think he's more than capable of holding his seat.  If it needs any strengthening, I'd do it by adding Rice County and subtracting the westernmost counties.

That's pretty much what I did. The appendage at the western end is to add that pocket of Democratic rural counties.

MN-02 & MN-06

The only other changes I'd like to see are the Minneapolis suburbs split into Eastern and Western suburbs.

One district including Goodhue, Dakota, Washington, Chisago, and Anoka counties.  This district would be very very competitive and I could see a Dem winning it fairly easily.

Too big. You can't fit all those counties into one district. Such a district would also be fairly safe for Kline. Of course it'd force him and Bachmann into the same district

The other district would include the GOP western exurbs stretching up to take in St. Cloud.

That'd be too similar to Bachmann's district now. No change.

I would prefer to leave Ramstead alone, as he is a decent GOPer and his district is fairly cogent as is.

I agree, but like I said, he was the easiest one to target.

  When he retires, it will certainly be competitive.

Problem is, when redistricting occurs MN-05 will have to expand in area to make up for population loss. This means it'll take in more Democratic/swing parts of Ramstad's district and Ramstad's seat will get more Republican.

Here's my attempt:



MN-1: Close to a 50/50 district. Olmsted and Kandiyoshi are split.

MN-2: Around 55/45 R. Sherburne is split.

MN-3: All in Hennepin.

MN-4: Hennepin and a portion of Anoka.

MN-5: Ramsey and a portion of Anoka

MN-6: Another portion of Anoka, a portion of Olmsted. Around 55/45 Republican.

MN-7: Kandiyoshi and Crow Wing are split. 55/45 R.

MN-8: Crow Wing is slightly split.

Incumbents in each district-
MN-1: Walz
MN-2: Kline
MN-3: Ramstad or Ellison
MN-4: Ramstad or Ellison
MN-5: McCollum
MN-6: Open
MN-7: Peterson
MN-8: Oberstar and Bachmann

How about that?

That might work. I'd rather get rid of Brown County though and add more of that cluster of 4 Democratic western counties, but depending on how you split Olmsted, Walz could become very safe and the district quite Democratic-leaning.

Oberstar would easily defeat Bachmann in the new district too (even a new Democrat if he retired would.) Unfortunately, bachmann would probably just move to the new open MN-6 seat. She'd be more beatable in this district though, depending on the candidate.

[RBH]

As for state elections, here's how my non metro districts break down

MN-1: 48/45 Pawlenty, 56/40 Klobuchar
MN-2: 56/37 Pawlenty, 52/45 Klobuchar
MN-6: 54/39 Pawlenty, 52/44 Klobuchar
MN-7: 50/43 Pawlenty, 53/43 Klobuchar
MN-8: 52/41 Hatch, 61/36 Klobuchar

As for the split counties.

Anoka: Coon Rapids goes with Hennepin, Blaine could go with Ramsey. Unsure on the rest.

Crow Wing: no pref

Hennepin: Is it possible to pair the Republican suburbs with Minneapolis, and then have the other district include St. Louis Park and Bloomington?

Kandiyoshi: no pref

Olmsted: put a lot of Rochester is in Walz district, and whatever connects Rochester to the rest of Walz district.

Sherburne: no pref

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hennepin: Is it possible to pair the Republican suburbs with Minneapolis, and then have the other district include St. Louis Park and Bloomington?

You could, but you'd still have to add Democratic northern suburbs to Minneapolis.

[muon2]

This was a version I posted back in 2005. I kept a district entirely in Hennepin and only split Ramsey. All districts are within 0.5% of the ideal size. It even got the BRTD seal of approval back then.



Voting percentages are based on the two party vote for president in 2004.

CD 1 (SE MN; light blue): very competitive 51.0% R - 49.0% D.

CD 2 (south suburbs/exurbs; yellow):  includes a few Lake Minnetonka suburbs in Hennepin.  55.2% R.

CD 3 (suburban Hennepin; brown):  very competitive 50.3% D - 49.7% R.

CD 4 (St Paul and eastern suburbs; dark green): includes St Paul, Lauderdale, N. St Paul, Gem Lake, Maplewood, and White Bear Lake in Ramsey plus Washington and Chisago. 59.0% D.

CD 5 (Minneapolis and northern Ramsey; blue): includes Minneapolis, St. Anthony, St. Louis Park, Robbinsdale, Brooklyn Center in Hennepin plus all of Ramsey not in CD 4. Solid 70.2% D.

CD 6 (north suburbs/exurbs; red): 56.4% R.

CD 7 (western MN; green):  56.5% R.

CD 8 (NE MN; light yellow):  54.1% D.

Delegation 3 R, 3 D, 2 swing seats.

[RBH]

I'm close to figuring out my split for Hennepin County

In MN-3: Minneapolis, Richfield, Edina, Hopkins, Golden Valley, Crystal, New Hope, Plymouth, Medicine Lake, St. Anthony.

In MN-4: Everything else.

Here's the Bush/Kerry numbers for those two parts of Hennepin County

MN-3: 67.8/30.3 Kerry
MN-4: 49.7/49.3 Kerry

Hm.. there's only so much that can be done without splitting Minneapolis.

Although I am 2000 people over the ideal population for MN-3

[minionofmidas]

Here's mine...

Minnesota

County splits done on area (eyeballed)

What'd happen here?

[RBH]

for one.. Collin Peterson would lose his job, unless he moves

[minionofmidas]

This was a version I posted back in 2005. I kept a district entirely in Hennepin and only split Ramsey. All districts are within 0.5% of the ideal size. It even got the BRTD seal of approval back then.



Voting percentages are based on the two party vote for president in 2004.

CD 1 (SE MN; light blue): very competitive 51.0% R - 49.0% D.

CD 2 (south suburbs/exurbs; yellow):  includes a few Lake Minnetonka suburbs in Hennepin.  55.2% R.

CD 3 (suburban Hennepin; brown):  very competitive 50.3% D - 49.7% R.

CD 4 (St Paul and eastern suburbs; dark green): includes St Paul, Lauderdale, N. St Paul, Gem Lake, Maplewood, and White Bear Lake in Ramsey plus Washington and Chisago. 59.0% D.

CD 5 (Minneapolis and northern Ramsey; blue): includes Minneapolis, St. Anthony, St. Louis Park, Robbinsdale, Brooklyn Center in Hennepin plus all of Ramsey not in CD 4. Solid 70.2% D.

CD 6 (north suburbs/exurbs; red): 56.4% R.

CD 7 (western MN; green):  56.5% R.

CD 8 (NE MN; light yellow):  54.1% D.

Delegation 3 R, 3 D, 2 swing seats.

I'm not sure if Republicans would win CD7 under this, actually. The Congressional race, that is, rather than the presidential one.

[muon2]

This was a version I posted back in 2005. I kept a district entirely in Hennepin and only split Ramsey. All districts are within 0.5% of the ideal size. It even got the BRTD seal of approval back then.



Voting percentages are based on the two party vote for president in 2004.

CD 1 (SE MN; light blue): very competitive 51.0% R - 49.0% D.

CD 2 (south suburbs/exurbs; yellow):  includes a few Lake Minnetonka suburbs in Hennepin.  55.2% R.

CD 3 (suburban Hennepin; brown):  very competitive 50.3% D - 49.7% R.

CD 4 (St Paul and eastern suburbs; dark green): includes St Paul, Lauderdale, N. St Paul, Gem Lake, Maplewood, and White Bear Lake in Ramsey plus Washington and Chisago. 59.0% D.

CD 5 (Minneapolis and northern Ramsey; blue): includes Minneapolis, St. Anthony, St. Louis Park, Robbinsdale, Brooklyn Center in Hennepin plus all of Ramsey not in CD 4. Solid 70.2% D.

CD 6 (north suburbs/exurbs; red): 56.4% R.

CD 7 (western MN; green):  56.5% R.

CD 8 (NE MN; light yellow):  54.1% D.

Delegation 3 R, 3 D, 2 swing seats.

I'm not sure if Republicans would win CD7 under this, actually. The Congressional race, that is, rather than the presidential one.

Peterson is conservative enough with a long history in the district. I'm not sure many other Dems could fit as well.  The SW corner is a particularly conservative area.

[minionofmidas]

This was a version I posted back in 2005. I kept a district entirely in Hennepin and only split Ramsey. All districts are within 0.5% of the ideal size. It even got the BRTD seal of approval back then.



Voting percentages are based on the two party vote for president in 2004.

CD 1 (SE MN; light blue): very competitive 51.0% R - 49.0% D.

CD 2 (south suburbs/exurbs; yellow):  includes a few Lake Minnetonka suburbs in Hennepin.  55.2% R.

CD 3 (suburban Hennepin; brown):  very competitive 50.3% D - 49.7% R.

CD 4 (St Paul and eastern suburbs; dark green): includes St Paul, Lauderdale, N. St Paul, Gem Lake, Maplewood, and White Bear Lake in Ramsey plus Washington and Chisago. 59.0% D.

CD 5 (Minneapolis and northern Ramsey; blue): includes Minneapolis, St. Anthony, St. Louis Park, Robbinsdale, Brooklyn Center in Hennepin plus all of Ramsey not in CD 4. Solid 70.2% D.

CD 6 (north suburbs/exurbs; red): 56.4% R.

CD 7 (western MN; green):  56.5% R.

CD 8 (NE MN; light yellow):  54.1% D.

Delegation 3 R, 3 D, 2 swing seats.

I'm not sure if Republicans would win CD7 under this, actually. The Congressional race, that is, rather than the presidential one.

Peterson is conservative enough with a long history in the district. I'm not sure many other Dems could fit as well.  The SW corner is a particularly conservative area.

I'm assuming Peterson would keep running ad infinitum under this map, though. (Well, until he'd be defeated, anyhow.) He'd face the occasional very serious challenge, of course.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This was a version I posted back in 2005. I kept a district entirely in Hennepin and only split Ramsey. All districts are within 0.5% of the ideal size. It even got the BRTD seal of approval back then.

Well it's not bad but I was trying to draw a pro-DFL gerrymander. This map basically preserves the status quo, both Walz and Ramstad are safe but competitive races if they leave. It's probably a bit safer for Walz than the current map though.

I'm assuming Peterson would keep running ad infinitum under this map, though. (Well, until he'd be defeated, anyhow.) He'd face the occasional very serious challenge, of course.

Nope, Peterson is as safe as Oberstar and McCollum and would be even under that map. Even if the GOP decided to try to give him a seriously challenge they wouldn't get anywhere because the GOP bench in the area is actually quite weak (really the GOP in rural Minnesota just sucks now.). Even the SW corner that muon mentioned has a DFL State Senator. And Nobles County has some weird voting patterns, for example Walz won it getting more votes than Klobuchar and it voted for the losing DFL candidate for Sec of State in 2002 with over 50% yet voted for Kiffmeyer when she lost in 2006. I still can't quite figure that place out. But I have no doubts Peterson would easily win there. The two uber-GOP counties Kennedy won are too small to have any impact, and they might end up voting for Peterson anyway (like Otter Tail and Redwood do).

I just looked it up, Jim Vickerman (the State Senator I mentioned), did carry Pipestone County narrowly. However he lost by a landslide in Rock.

The DFL could keep it even if he retired, although it'd be more difficult than the current district.

Here's mine...

Minnesota

County splits done on area (eyeballed)

What'd happen here?

Well RBH is correct, but only because Peterson would be in the same district as Oberstar. If he moved to the new open green seat, he'd most likely win there. But Bachmann would be put in the same district as McCollum and McCollum would easily defeat her Of course she could run in the new open blue district north of that, but it's less friendly to her than the current MN-6. Ramstad's seat also would no longer be even remotely competitive even if he retired.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is how Nobles County voted btw. Fairly bizarre pattern:

Senate:
Independence    ROBERT FITZGERALD    254   3.37   
Republican    MARK KENNEDY    3531   46.88   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    AMY KLOBUCHAR    3697   49.08

House:
Republican    GIL GUTKNECHT    3703   49.10   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    TIM WALZ    3830   50.78

State Senate:
Republican    BILL WEBER    3048   40.39   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    JIM VICKERMAN    4492   59.52   

Governor/Lt. Governor:
Independence    PETER HUTCHINSON AND MAUREEN REED    263   3.49   
Republican    TIM PAWLENTY AND CAROL MOLNAU    3692   48.93   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    MIKE HATCH AND JUDI DUTCHER    3475   46.05

Secretary of State:
Independence    JOEL SPOONHEIM    151   2.03   
Republican    MARY KIFFMEYER    3608   48.59   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    MARK RITCHIE    3246   43.72   
For Independent Voters    BRUCE KENNEDY    418   5.63

Auditor:
Independence    LUCY GEROLD    312   4.26   
Republican    PATRICIA ANDERSON    3427   46.82   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    REBECCA OTTO    3434   46.92   
Green    DAVE BERGER    143   1.95   

Attorney General:
Independence    JOHN JAMES    294   3.99   
Republican    JEFF JOHNSON    3251   44.14   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    LORI SWANSON    3742   50.81

And this was a 56-42 Bush county in 2004. Hatch significantly outperforms Kerry, yet Klobuchar wins by less than 3 points, yet it still votes DFL for the downballot offices except the one it voted DFL for in 2002. And votes DFL for House. Go figure.

[muon2]

An interesting problem will occur after 2010 if MN loses one seat as trends currently stand. MN-7 has almost no population growth and is the most likely district to carve up or consolidate. Current population estimates put the 7-county metro area at a population for just under 4 of those 7 seats. The three non-Twin-Cities districts would almost certainly be in the south similar to MN-1 now, in the north by extending MN-8 to the NW corner, and in the central and west including St Cloud, Willmar and Fergus Falls.

I've put together one possible future version along those lines using 2010 projections. As usual I avoid county splits and keep all districts within 0.5% of the ideal.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Peterson and Oberstar get put in the same district in that map, but the new red seat is open, and Peterson could get elected there (though once he retires, it'd be much tougher to hold than the current MN-7). Even if Oberstar were to retire, Peterson would likely lose the primary to someone from St. Louis County, so the new red district is his best bet.

Bachmann would also be drawn into the same district as McCollum in that map though There is no way Bachmann can win that district. So she has two options if she wants to stay in the House:

1-Move to Anoka County and run against Ramstad in the primary (and likely lose)
2-Move to Wright or Sherburne counties and run against Peterson if he moves there (and lose) or in an open seat if he doesn't (and possibly win )

[muon2]

Peterson and Oberstar get put in the same district in that map, but the new red seat is open, and Peterson could get elected there (though once he retires, it'd be much tougher to hold than the current MN-7). Even if Oberstar were to retire, Peterson would likely lose the primary to someone from St. Louis County, so the new red district is his best bet.

Bachmann would also be drawn into the same district as McCollum in that map though There is no way Bachmann can win that district. So she has two options if she wants to stay in the House:

1-Move to Anoka County and run against Ramstad in the primary (and likely lose)
2-Move to Wright or Sherburne counties and run against Peterson if he moves there (and lose) or in an open seat if he doesn't (and possibly win )

I didn't show you the scary version of the map (at least as I think you would see it). It happens because for the first time Minneapolis and St Paul together would fit in one CD.

Without changing county splits a GOP map could put the Twins together with Richfield, St. Anthony, Lauderdale, Falcon Heights, Roseville, Little Canada, Maplewood, and North St Paul in a very compact district. The rest of suburban Hennepin is in a district by itself. Then Anoka, Washington, Isanti, and Chisago link up with the northern end of Ramsey.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Peterson and Oberstar get put in the same district in that map, but the new red seat is open, and Peterson could get elected there (though once he retires, it'd be much tougher to hold than the current MN-7). Even if Oberstar were to retire, Peterson would likely lose the primary to someone from St. Louis County, so the new red district is his best bet.

Bachmann would also be drawn into the same district as McCollum in that map though There is no way Bachmann can win that district. So she has two options if she wants to stay in the House:

1-Move to Anoka County and run against Ramstad in the primary (and likely lose)
2-Move to Wright or Sherburne counties and run against Peterson if he moves there (and lose) or in an open seat if he doesn't (and possibly win )

I didn't show you the scary version of the map (at least as I think you would see it). It happens because for the first time Minneapolis and St Paul together would fit in one CD.

Without changing county splits a GOP map could put the Twins together with Richfield, St. Anthony, Lauderdale, Falcon Heights, Roseville, Little Canada, Maplewood, and North St Paul in a very compact district. The rest of suburban Hennepin is in a district by itself. Then Anoka, Washington, Isanti, and Chisago link up with the northern end of Ramsey.

That'll never happen unless the GOP takes the legislature (which they won't)

[jimrtex]

An interesting problem will occur after 2010 if MN loses one seat as trends currently stand. MN-7 has almost no population growth and is the most likely district to carve up or consolidate.  Current population estimates put the 7-county metro area at a population for just under 4 of those 7 seats.

It will actually make a better map since 4:3 is closer to the Twin Cities-outstate population than 5:3 or 4:4.

If you use 5:3 you have to extend outwards towards St. Cloud, Rochester and Mankato.  If you use 4:4, then each of the outstate districts have to peal off some of the metro area, or you have one district that is half-and-half.