John Kerry on Feb. 3rd

[bejkuy]

I wonder why Rep Clyburn would endorse Kerry?

Any thoughts?  How will it infuence SC blacks?

[© Tweed the Younger]

I wonder why Rep Clyburn would endorse Kerry?

Any thoughts?  How will it infuence SC blacks?

Yes, and it minimizes Sharpton, which is good.

[NHPolitico]

He has to say that he doesn't need to win, b/c he know he won't. He's going down, he doesn't even seem to have any money left.

I'll add that I heard tonight that Dean is talking about staying in this for the long haul like Al Sharpton.  It was said that he's looking at wins in Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin and working on just winning delegates in every state he can regardless of where he places-- that he wants to have an influence on the platform and on the ticket, even if it yields a delay in the choosing of a nominee until Boston.  I'd guess if he thinks that he'll have his 15% regardless of how much money he spends, he might be able to hang around as long as he wants to.  

I'd also say that the debate tonight shows that Dean isn't at all happy with Kerry as a nominee and wants to keep him from becoming the nominee. My sister-in-law is a Deaniac. She's the classic Deaniac.  She is conspiratorial and thinks that only Dean can save America. She thinks that special interests who control the world (a collection of big businesses) want Kerry because he's in their pocket, that Kerry won't rock the boat and shake things up and bring real, positive change to America.  It's like a cult, frankly.  I'd bet that Kucinich has the same kind of folk in his camp.  You can't reason with them or tell them to shut up.  They believe these things as strongly as they believe that they exist.

If Dean can keep them in line, he can go the distance with little money. That's probably something that most analysts didn't realize-- that Dean has his base and that base is his ceiling and that it doesn't require huge sums of cash to keep them in line. Dean should have just conserved his money in NH and it probably wouldn't have changed a single thing from what happened Tuesday night. He should have just run ads in every state just so his supporters knows he is there for them.

[Sibboleth]

Has he actually endorsed him? The Kerry team say he has, but I've heard nothing from him on this.

[jravnsbo]

yes rep clyburn endorsed kerry formally yesterday.

[Gustaf]

He has to say that he doesn't need to win, b/c he know he won't. He's going down, he doesn't even seem to have any money left.

I'll add that I heard tonight that Dean is talking about staying in this for the long haul like Al Sharpton.  It was said that he's looking at wins in Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin and working on just winning delegates in every state he can regardless of where he places-- that he wants to have an influence on the platform and on the ticket, even if it yields a delay in the choosing of a nominee until Boston.  I'd guess if he thinks that he'll have his 15% regardless of how much money he spends, he might be able to hang around as long as he wants to.  

I'd also say that the debate tonight shows that Dean isn't at all happy with Kerry as a nominee and wants to keep him from becoming the nominee. My sister-in-law is a Deaniac. She's the classic Deaniac.  She is conspiratorial and thinks that only Dean can save America. She thinks that special interests who control the world (a collection of big businesses) want Kerry because he's in their pocket, that Kerry won't rock the boat and shake things up and bring real, positive change to America.  It's like a cult, frankly.  I'd bet that Kucinich has the same kind of folk in his camp.  You can't reason with them or tell them to shut up.  They believe these things as strongly as they believe that they exist.

If Dean can keep them in line, he can go the distance with little money. That's probably something that most analysts didn't realize-- that Dean has his base and that base is his ceiling and that it doesn't require huge sums of cash to keep them in line. Dean should have just conserved his money in NH and it probably wouldn't have changed a single thing from what happened Tuesday night. He should have just run ads in every state just so his supporters knows he is there for them.

Dean still won't get enough delegates, I think. Isn't the 15%-rule very common? Polls indicate Dean dropping below 15% in a lot of places. And the other will rally around one candidate and that candidate will have a very clear majority of the delegates behind him. The only card Dean has left is running as an independent, but I don't think it will work, b/c he and his supporters don't want to give the election to Bush.

[Sibboleth]

yes rep clyburn endorsed kerry formally yesterday.

Have you got a source for that?

[Clay]

Right now, Kerry leads in Arizona fairly comfortably.  He also has a huge lead in Missouri and Delaware.  I haven't seen post-Iowa & N.H. polls for New Mexico or North Dakota.

I actually just saw one poll showing Kerry barely leading Clark in Oklahoma, but most other polls show Clark leading in that state.

Zogby now has Kerry just one point behind Edwards in South Carolina.

And just to note, Kerry is also leading in key states like Michigan and California by pretty big margins.

I think it's very safe to say that Kerry is the presidential frontrunner, with Edwards the VP frontrunner.

[Sibboleth]

I've made my point about tracking polls elsewhere...

[Gustaf]

Kerry leads everywhere...

North Dakota:

Kerry 31%
Clark 15%
Everyone Else <6%

Delaware:

Kerry 27%
Lieberman 16%
Dean 14%
Edwards 9%
Clark 8%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 1%

Missouri:

Kerry 46%
Edwards 15%
Dean 7%
Clark 6%
Lieberman 3%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 1%

Arizona:

Kerry 38%
Clark 17
Dean 12
Lieberman 6
Edwards 6
Kucinich 2
Sharpton 1

He still has South Carolina left:

Edwards 25
Kerry 24
Dean 9
Clark 8
Lieberman 5
Sharpton 5
Kucinich 0

...and Oklahoma:

Clark 27
Kerry 19
Edwards 17
Dean 9
Lieberman 5
Sharpton 1
Kucinich 1

...but will probably soon get these as well soon enough. Kerry is getting the nomination, mark my words.

[MAS117]

howard dean is on his way out. he is going to win zero super tuesday states, has no money left, fired trippi, and is trying and focusing on like washington and michigan. i wouldnt have him lean on his super delegate list either cause kerrys is growing and growing and soon people are goiing to be pulling away from his campgain

[Gustaf]

Kerry leads in Virginia as well:

Kerry: 32%

Edwards: 17%

Clark: 17%

Dean: 14%

Sharpton: 9%

Lieberman: <5%

Kucinich: <5%

[NHPolitico]

I wonder why Rep Clyburn would endorse Kerry?

All aboard the Kerry bandwagon!

[© Tweed the Younger]

I really don't like Kerry...he is every boring politician wrapped into one.  I mean, I can't listen to him talk.  He draws out every work.  "Welcome back to New Hampshire...the comback Kerry."  This guy's pathetic.

That said, I'll go to the polls and vote for him.

[Harry]

I would not bet on Kerry winning SC and OK, but if he wins just one of them, I can't see how he'd lose the nomination at all.

[MAS117]

miamiu why is this patheic guy kicking @$$ then so far....knocking the socks off Mr. Edwards

[Sibboleth]

Has anyone got a source on Clyburn's alledged endorsement?

[© Tweed the Younger]

miamiu why is this patheic guy kicking @$$ then so far....knocking the socks off Mr. Edwards

Because he appears presidential.

[MAS117]

http://johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_0129a.html - is that press release from clyburns endorsement

[John]

I Think kerry will be the big Winner Here and will run in the fall & Lose to bush