2008 Rhode Island Sanate Race

[Governor PiT]

I could see Chaffe polling a Lieberman in 2008.

[Governor PiT]

Jack Reed of Rhode Island
Main article: Rhode Island United States Senate election, 2008
Democratic incumbent Jack Reed is fairly popular, with a 64% approval rating according to SurveyUSA.[9] However, the right candidate could put this seat in play - the most obvious choice being Senator Lincoln Chafee, defeated for re-election in 2006 by Sheldon Whitehouse. In an election where Bush and Iraq are less important, Chafee might be able to succeed again. Whether Chafee is interested in the race, or even a Republican in 2008, is another matter entirely.[18] In any case, it would be a difficult race for the GOP, and Reed is unlikely to be a top target.

-wikipedia

[Keystone Phil]

I love how the Wiki article calls him "fairly" popular...with a 64% approval rating...

[CPT MikeyMike]

What would be more interesting to see if Chafee becomes a Democrat and challenges Reed.

Nevertheless, I hope (and I believe) Chafee is finsihed.

[Verily]

1) There's no way Chafee would run against Jack Reed, with whom he gets along well.
2) There's no way Chafee would run against a Democrat now, period.

And that's that.

[Padfoot]

If I were Chafee and I really really really wanted to get back into the Senate this is what I would do.

1. Move to Connecticut and take on Shays as a Democrat in 2008
2. Wait until Lieberman is up for re-election and then take him on

OR

I would move to New Hampshire and take on Sununu as a Democrat

[sethm0]

 1. Jack Reed will never lose an election in Rhode Island. He is one of the most popular Senators in the country. Even Republicans give him positive approval ratings, and he is quite liberal.

 2. A better question would be either who would win an RI Senate rematch in 6 years (Chafee v Whitehouse) or who would win the Governor's race in four years. Chafee would be formidible if he ran, but the Democats have several strong potential candidates as well.

[WalterMitty]

i love chafee and would support chafee in this race.

however, no one is going to beat reed.

[Adlai Stevenson]

 1. Jack Reed will never lose an election in Rhode Island. He is one of the most popular Senators in the country. Even Republicans give him positive approval ratings, and he is quite liberal.

 2. A better question would be either who would win an RI Senate rematch in 6 years (Chafee v Whitehouse) or who would win the Governor's race in four years. Chafee would be formidible if he ran, but the Democats have several strong potential candidates as well.

Reed won the open seat in 1996 63%-35% and in 2002 was re-elected 78%-22%.  It is not only unlikely that Chafee will challenge him, but even if he gets a Republican opponent in 2008.  I can, however, see Chafee running for Governor as an Independent in 2010; that would be interesting.

[minionofmidas]

More realistic scenario: In 2006, Chaffee, like Lieberman, announces that he will run as an independent should he lose the primary. As a result, he does.

How does the general between Chaffee, Laffey and Whitehouse go? I would assume Laffey wouldn't do much better than Schlesinger, and there would be some voters who voted for Whitehouse in rl but would have voted for Chaffee in this scenario.
I doubt it'd be anywhere near enough to overcome the vote loss to Laffey+the amount of votes he lost by anyways, though.

[Adlai Stevenson]

More realistic scenario: In 2006, Chaffee, like Lieberman, announces that he will run as an independent should he lose the primary. As a result, he does.

How does the general between Chaffee, Laffey and Whitehouse go? I would assume Laffey wouldn't do much better than Schlesinger, and there would be some voters who voted for Whitehouse in rl but would have voted for Chaffee in this scenario.
I doubt it'd be anywhere near enough to overcome the vote loss to Laffey+the amount of votes he lost by anyways, though.

Something like this:

RHODE ISLAND SENATE
Whitehouse (D) 41%
Chafee (I) 35%
Laffey (R) 24%

[Gabu]

Something like this:

RHODE ISLAND SENATE
Whitehouse (D) 41%
Chafee (I) 35%
Laffey (R) 24%

Why would Whitehouse lose a single vote to Laffey?  I would expect 100% of Laffey's vote to come from Chafee's voters, which would result in Whitehouse getting the same percentage as before.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Something like this:

RHODE ISLAND SENATE
Whitehouse (D) 41%
Chafee (I) 35%
Laffey (R) 24%

Why would Whitehouse lose a single vote to Laffey?  I would expect 100% of Laffey's vote to come from Chafee's voters, which would result in Whitehouse getting the same percentage as before.

Whitehouse would lose votes to Chafee; I don't know why you're interpreting it as Laffey gaining.  Laffey represents about 20%-25% of Rhode Islanders who currently approve of Bush; he gets that share of the GOP grassroots.  The closeness of the race between Whitehouse-Chafee in reality showed that Rhode Island still liked Chafee, it was just about his party.  In this scenario, as he is running as an Independent voters feel more comfortable voting for him; I'm assuming he would caucus with the Democrats anyway.  As Rhode Island is so Democratic statewide, Whitehouse still wins but with less than a majority of the vote. 

[Gabu]

Something like this:

RHODE ISLAND SENATE
Whitehouse (D) 41%
Chafee (I) 35%
Laffey (R) 24%

Why would Whitehouse lose a single vote to Laffey?  I would expect 100% of Laffey's vote to come from Chafee's voters, which would result in Whitehouse getting the same percentage as before.

Whitehouse would lose votes to Chafee; I don't know why you're interpreting it as Laffey gaining.  Laffey represents about 20%-25% of Rhode Islanders who currently approve of Bush; he gets that share of the GOP grassroots.  The closeness of the race between Whitehouse-Chafee in reality showed that Rhode Island still liked Chafee, it was just about his party.  In this scenario, as he is running as an Independent voters feel more comfortable voting for him; I'm assuming he would caucus with the Democrats anyway.  As Rhode Island is so Democratic statewide, Whitehouse still wins but with less than a majority of the vote. 

I suppose that makes sense.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Chafee promised to caucus with the Democrats, he'd probably win. Otherwise, Whitehouse would win.

[AndrewTX]

I really like Lincoln, I admire his work, but he won't win against Reed. No way, no how. He would probably lose by a bigger margin.

[Eraserhead]

Reed in a landslide.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There's no way this would be remotely close.

[Governor PiT]

Could he run for Governor?