NH Senate 2008: First Democrat Enters the Race, Others Considering

[TheresNoMoney]

That's Dick Swett's daughter? Correct?

His wife, actually. She's also Congressman Tom Latos' (from California) daughter.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Reps arent getting any House seats back in New England. Maybe PA in the northeast but probably a net loss in 08 here.

I wasn't aware that there was much left to loose as far as House seats go.  Shays is really the only one left isn't he?

I think he was also referring to NY,NJ & PA

Yes; there are two seats in NJ that will become vyulnerable if their incumbents run for Senate, and Ferguson should be a Dem target after it surprisingly came so close this year. In New York, Walsh will be a target in his Kerry seat; he only won because Maffei was a poor candidate chosen at a time when Walsh looked unbeatable. King might be easier to unseat in a Presidential year as well.

That leaves:

Vulnerable Dems:
Altmire
Shea-Porter

Vulnerable GOPers:
Ferguson
Walsh
Shays
Gerlach
King (maybe)

Which favors the Dems in the Northeast.

You forgot Carney. I think he's almost as done as Lampson.

If the Dems still control everything by redistricting, Ferguson should lose. Unfortunately, his current district is a GOP gerrymandered monstrocity. If King didn't lose this year to a strong opponent, he won't ever. Walsh, Shays and Gerlach will all be perpetual targets from now on.

[Soaring Eagle]

Scoonie is such a hack that he doesn't want people of different political beliefs rooting for "his" sports teams. Wow, what a loser.

I'll take this opportunity to thank the Eagles for beating the Giants and ensuring the Bears victory when they face the Seahawks.

[Keystone Phil]

Walsh, Shays and Gerlach will all be perpetual targets from now on.

What do you mean from now on? They have been for awhile. If anything, this past elections proves that they are almost unbeatable. Go ahead and waste money and effort on PA 6. In the end, Gerlach will still end up with 51%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Walsh, Shays and Gerlach will all be perpetual targets from now on.

What do you mean from now on? They have been for awhile. If anything, this past elections proves that they are almost unbeatable. Go ahead and waste money and effort on PA 6. In the end, Gerlach will still end up with 51%.

Shays never had a serious opponent until 2004. Walsh didn't even have an opponent in 2004 and wasn't even seriously targeted in 2006 either, Maffei didn't get much national support until the last few weeks. And I know you may have difficult comprehending this, but there are Democrats in PA-06 other than Lois Murphy. But hey, at least 51% is lower than the numbers Murtha gets despite your insistence Irey had a shot at him.

[Keystone Phil]

And I know you may have difficult comprehending this, but there are Democrats in PA-06 other than Lois Murphy. But hey, at least 51% is lower than the numbers Murtha gets despite your insistence Irey had a shot at him.

This has nothing to do with Murphy. Remember how strong she was everytime she ran? Now you guys want to dismiss her? What other Dems are in PA 6, BRTD? You know these races so well so enlighten us.

The point here is that Gerlach has a lock on 51% of the vote unless he does something really, really stupid.

I'm sorry that you have no idea what you're talking about but this is how it is. Give me a call in 2008 when Gerlach gets 51% or better with these "other Dems" that you know about. Give me a call when you know how to formulate a true argument instead of the "Well, I was wrong about PA 6 so let me attack him for saying Irey had a shot!" It's totally irrelevant and just proves that you have to change the subject everytime you get beat in an argument. And since we're being juvenile, Irey did do a lot better than any Murtha opponent in recent history and could very well take the seat after Murtha is done. I always emphasized that she will do better than expected, not that I really thought she'd win in the final days.

You're a loser, kid.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This has nothing to do with Murphy. Remember how strong she was everytime she ran? Now you guys want to dismiss her?

Gee, sounds like Mark Kennedy, huh?

What other Dems are in PA 6, BRTD? You know these races so well so enlighten us.

I don't know about your state, but I find it hard to believe there are no Democratic State Reps or Senators whatseover in the district.

I'm sorry that you have no idea what you're talking about but this is how it is. Give me a call in 2008 when Gerlach gets 51% or better with these "other Dems" that you know about. Give me a call when you know how to formulate a true argument instead of the "Well, I was wrong about PA 6 so let me attack him for saying Irey had a shot!" It's totally irrelevant and just proves that you have to change the subject everytime you get beat in an argument. And since we're being juvenile, Irey did do a lot better than any Murtha opponent in recent history and could very well take the seat after Murtha is done. I always emphasized that she will do better than expected, not that I really thought she'd win in the final days.

You're a loser, kid.

Hmmm, OK, I was off in PA 6 by about 2-3 points. You were off in PA 8 by a much wider margin but let's not go there. How off were you on the PA Senate race?

Yeah you can gloat about PA 6 all you like, but one such call doesn't make up for the single worst Senate prediction of anyone on this forum.

[Keystone Phil]

This has nothing to do with Murphy. Remember how strong she was everytime she ran? Now you guys want to dismiss her?

Gee, sounds like Mark Kennedy, huh?

Wow, your obsession is...wow...

By the way, I remember talking about Mark Kennedy being strong once, not twice.

What other Dems are in PA 6, BRTD? You know these races so well so enlighten us.

I don't know about your state, but I find it hard to believe there are no Democratic State Reps or Senators whatseover in the district.[/quote]

Name some viable candidates. Just because there might be some State Reps. or Senators doesn't mean that there are serious/strong candidates.

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Again, what does that have to do with this? The topic is PA 6 and how you guys keep getting the Gerlach race wrong.

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When that is the topic, child, then you can gloat about that. I'm not even gloating about how I called the race. All I am saying is that you guys get the race wrong everytime (remember when some people here said that Gerlach was the most vulnerable out there?) and then you get so angry when some of us point out why he wins.