France 1st round

[© tweed]

I realize all of these may not run.  Or at least I think that's how I understand the situation.

[Hatman 🍁]

PS!

[Jake]

Almost certainly Le Pen in the first round. Sarkozy in the second.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is LePage running or the Left Radical party for that matter? Both were in the mix in 2002, that's who I would prefer.

IIRC All three Communists parties are thinking of uniting for the election and running one candidate. "Thinking" being the operative here.

EDIT: Here's the Wikipedia link on the election - I'm curious that Alternative Liberal is running a candidate, that is who I would probably support: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election%2C_2007

[Colin]

If Alternative Liberal runs a candidate I would support them in the first round, for the second round I would obviously support Sarkozy.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

If Alternative Liberal runs a candidate I would support them in the first round, for the second round I would obviously support Sarkozy.

^^^^^^^

AL's candidate is Édouard Fillias.  I'll vote for Bayrou for the purposes of this poll.

[afleitch]

If Alternative Liberal runs a candidate I would support them in the first round, for the second round I would obviously support Sarkozy.

^^^^^^^^

I might add François Bayrou into that mix.

[minionofmidas]

Probably Royal on account of what happened 5 years ago...

[afleitch]

Probably Royal on account of what happened 5 years ago...

I have a feeling that if Le Pen is to make the second round again (unlikely), he will be up against Royal (who will easily win) Neither do I see the left fragmenting as much with only Laguiller and Besancenot (should he run) polling anything above 2%. Besancenot outpolled both Jospin and Le Pen in the youth vote IIRC

[minionofmidas]

Probably Royal on account of what happened 5 years ago...

I have a feeling that if Le Pen is to make the second round again (unlikely), he will be up against Royal (who will easily win) Neither do I see the left fragmenting as much with only Laguiller and Besancenot (should he run) polling anything above 2%.

That's because they don't want to see Right vs Far Right ever again either.

[Democratic Hawk]

Royal as the mainstream center-left candidate

Dave

[Tender Branson]

Royal

[afleitch]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09ERVOBHiUY

The infamous 2002 exit poll (?) or 1st hour results

[Michael Z]

Royal, most definitely.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Um, so far it looks like a run-off between Royal and Le Pen... at least in this forum.

[Umengus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09ERVOBHiUY

The infamous 2002 exit poll (?) or 1st hour results

(Ipsos) exit polls are very good in France. le pen did 16,8 and Chirac 19,8%.

[Michael Z]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09ERVOBHiUY

The infamous 2002 exit poll (?) or 1st hour results

(Ipsos) exit polls are very good in France. le pen did 16,8 and Chirac 19,8%.

Yeah, but the exit polls still suggested the 2nd round would be between Chirac and Jospin. I worked for Ipsos back during the 2002 election and, after the results of the 1st round became clear, a lot of people in France actually refused to speak to us.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Royal, for this reason: http://www.askmen.com/women/votes_300/370_hot_politicians.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Royal, for this reason: http://www.askmen.com/women/votes_300/370_hot_politicians.html

Go Belinda!

[Umengus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09ERVOBHiUY

The infamous 2002 exit poll (?) or 1st hour results

(Ipsos) exit polls are very good in France. le pen did 16,8 and Chirac 19,8%.

Yeah, but the exit polls still suggested the 2nd round would be between Chirac and Jospin. I worked for Ipsos back during the 2002 election and, after the results of the 1st round became clear, a lot of people in France actually refused to speak to us.

I think that exit polls are no really 100% polls: I think that polls institutes work with test polling stations. And consequently ipsos results given at 8 pm were correct.