Senate Turnover Rates

[SPC]

In 1996, 14 new Senators came to Washington, 13 of them from open seats. When do you think will be the next election with such high turnover rates?

[Alcon]

I have no freaking idea how I would even start to guess.

[SPC]

I'd guess 2012, because I would think that Ted Kennedy and Bob Byrd would either retire or die by 2012. I think there will be plenty of open seats in 2012, givin g the opportunity for new senators.

[Deano963]

I read right after the '06 elections on Political Wire talk about how many Senators are planning on retiring in 2010 actually.

Sam Brownback is retiring for sure. He has a self-imposed two-term limit.
 
George Voinovich, Jim Bunning, Daniel Inouye, Barbara Mikulski and Arlen Specter are all widely expected to retire to varying degrees.

It's also possible that Patrick Leahy, Richard Shelby and Chuck Grassley will retire. To an even lesser extent Boxer and Bond.

And of course there is the possibility that if either John McCain or Barack Obama is elected President that one of their seats will be an open seat in 2010.

[Padfoot]

Its so hard to judge this because it depends on several factors.  Some Senators retire after only one or two terms while others stay in until they die on the floor of the Senate Chamber.  Also, some may run for Governor or seek their party's presidential nomination.  I doubt we'll ever see as many retirements in one year as we did in 1996 because there is so much pressure not to from the party leaders. 

That being said, I agree that 2012 seems like a good year for there to be a high turnover rate.  Republicans will only have 9 seats to defend and will be looking for some pickups (although the 2012 presidential coattails are yet to be determined).  Also, there are 4 Senators that will be over the age of 80 in 2012: Akaka-88, Byrd-95 (DAMN!), Kennedy-80, and Lugar-80.  In addition to that, 9 more Senators will have surpassed 70 by 2012: Feinstein-79, Kohl-77, Lieberman-70, Lott-71, Ben Nelson-71, Bill Nelson-70, Sanders-71, and Thomas-79.  So nearly 40% of the Senators up for re-election will be over the age of 70.  On top of that Sen. Thomas is battling cancer and will likely retire or die by 2012 and CT liberals will be itching to challenge Sen. Lieberman after 2006 even if he doesn't retire.  And one final note on 2012 is that Sen. Brown has said he will not seek re-election but we all know how likely that is.

Having said all that, 2010 could be another year of many new faces.  12 Senators up for re-election will be over the age of 70 (two over 80) in 2010 and three are currently being mentioned as 2008 Presidential candidates: Obama, McCain, and Brownback.  In addtion Brownback has said he will not run due to self imposed term limits.  The partisan split is fairly even with 15-D and 19-R (this means little though since going into 2006 it was the exact opposite and 6 Republicans lost).

Also, lets not forget that 10 new Senators started their first terms this year.  6 defeated incumbants and 4 took over open seats.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think 2008 could have a high turnover rate.  We have the possibility of retirements in Virginia, New Mexico, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Dakota and Iowa.  We also have several incumbents with the chance to be nominated for President from New York, Illinois and Kansas.  There will also be competetive elections in Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshrire and Oregon.  As well as potential primary challenges in Massachusetts and South Carolina.  There are also a raft of semi-competetive seats in the South; Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina, West Virginia and Arkansas.

I think 2008 is hard to predict considering there are so many seats that could potentially change hands or elect new incumbents.