Allard: No third term

[Tender Branson]

By M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News
January 15, 2007
WASHINGTON — Sen. Wayne Allard said today he will honor his term-limits pledge and leave at the end of 2008, creating a replacement fight that should turn Colorado into one of the country’s biggest electoral battlegrounds.

"I just didn't think I could back away from the (term limits) commitment. It is a matter of integrity and keeping your commitments. I have never wavered on that," Allard told the Rocky Mountain News.

story continues ...

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_5281105,00.html

So, what Republican will be up against Udall in 08, if Owens and Tancredo are out too ?

[Keystone Phil]

That's the best way to go for Allard. The GOP's chances at keeping the seat improve but it is still lost.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Something tells me either Owens or Tancredo will change there mind now

[Keystone Phil]

Something tells me either Owens or Tancredo will change there mind now

It better be Owens because a Tancredo candidacy means that the GOP won't break 40%.

[bullmoose88]

Tom Tancredo=Garbage.

For the love of God someone get Owens to run...or throw up Coors again as a sacrificial lamb...but not Tancredo.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Your right, Tom Tancredo will be too busy being president to run for Senate

Tom Tancredo should have a shrine dedicated to him, he is the most forthright and amazing American politician in history

[Yates]

If the Republicans are desperate for a candidate, perhaps they could turn to Bob Beauprez or Marc Holtzman.

[Gabu]

Your right, Tom Tancredo will be too busy being president to run for Senate

Tom Tancredo should have a shrine dedicated to him, he is the most forthright and amazing American politician in history

You could always go make him one in your basement.  Then you can go down and pray to Tom Tancredo twice every day.  You could even write "president" under his name and pretend that he was elected and that America then never saw an illegal immigrant ever again.

[Joe Republic]

Tom Tancredo should have a shrine dedicated to him, he is the most forthright and amazing American politician in history

To get an idea for how posts like that seem to other people, imagine if another poster had said the following:

"Dennis Kucinich should have a shrine dedicated to him, he is the most forthright and amazing American politician in history"

I'm not saying that your views need to necessarily gain other peoples' respect; I just want you to hopefully see how they come across to mainstream folk.

[InsideTheBeltway]

This helps the Republicans' chances of holding this seat somewhat, as Allard's approval ratings have mostly been in the 40s for the last year or so.

If I had to guess, McInnis and Schaeffer would be slight underdogs against Udall, Tancredo and Beauprez would be bigger underdogs, and Owens might be a slight favorite.  Don't know much about any other candidates.

[InsideTheBeltway]

Here is the National Journal's Analysis:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/01/allard_wont_run_1.html#comments

[Keystone Phil]

If I had to guess, McInnis and Schaeffer would be slight underdogs against Udall, Tancredo and Beauprez would be bigger underdogs, and Owens might be a slight favorite.  Don't know much about any other candidates.

I think Schaffer is a definite to run again but he'd be a big underdog. Owens wouldn't be a slight favorite. Beauprez running would be the biggest waste of time. If the CO GOP let's him win the nomination, they're conceding the race right off the bat (same with Tancredo).

[DownWithTheLeft]

Tom Tancredo should have a shrine dedicated to him, he is the most forthright and amazing American politician in history

To get an idea for how posts like that seem to other people, imagine if another poster had said the following:

"Dennis Kucinich should have a shrine dedicated to him, he is the most forthright and amazing American politician in history"

I'm not saying that your views need to necessarily gain other peoples' respect; I just want you to hopefully see how they come across to mainstream folk.

In case no one noticed, my love for Tancredo was being exaggerated

[Adlai Stevenson]

Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are both favoured to get in the race alongside Bob Beauprez, apparently. 

[Keystone Phil]

Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are both favoured to get in the race alongside Bob Beauprez, apparently. 

If those three are the only candidates, I am behind McInnis for the nomination. I really hope Owens gets in the race so we can at least make Udall/DSCC work a little for the seat.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are both favoured to get in the race alongside Bob Beauprez, apparently. 

If those three are the only candidates, I am behind McInnis for the nomination. I really hope Owens gets in the race so we can at least make Udall/DSCC work a little for the seat.
[/quote

It seems Owens is unlikely to.  Its odd that both McInnis and Schaffer gave up their seats; in a way it marks them out as honourable politicians.  I would also say McInnis is more likely because he talked about running for Governor in 2006 and had already discussed running for Senator if Allard stepped aside.

[Keystone Phil]

Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are both favoured to get in the race alongside Bob Beauprez, apparently. 

If those three are the only candidates, I am behind McInnis for the nomination. I really hope Owens gets in the race so we can at least make Udall/DSCC work a little for the seat.

It seems Owens is unlikely to.  Its odd that both McInnis and Schaffer gave up their seats; in a way it marks them out as honourable politicians.  I would also say McInnis is more likely because he talked about running for Governor in 2006 and had already discussed running for Senator if Allard stepped aside.

Word from "CO GOP sources" says that Owens will probably get in. The truth or just wishful thinking? We shall see.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are both favoured to get in the race alongside Bob Beauprez, apparently. 

If those three are the only candidates, I am behind McInnis for the nomination. I really hope Owens gets in the race so we can at least make Udall/DSCC work a little for the seat.

It seems Owens is unlikely to.  Its odd that both McInnis and Schaffer gave up their seats; in a way it marks them out as honourable politicians.  I would also say McInnis is more likely because he talked about running for Governor in 2006 and had already discussed running for Senator if Allard stepped aside.

Word from "CO GOP sources" says that Owens will probably get in. The truth or just wishful thinking? We shall see.

My predictions:

COLORADO SENATE
Udall (D) 49%
Owens (R) 48%


Udall (D) 52%
Schaffer (R) 45%


Udall (D) 51%
McInnis (R) 47%


Udall (D) 58%
Tancredo (R) 40%

[Deano963]

Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are both favoured to get in the race alongside Bob Beauprez, apparently. 

What a deliciously bloody and expensive primary that would produce on the Republican side. Whoever emerged the winner would be bloody and broke, while Udall waltzes through on the Dem side, untouched and stockpiling cash. Excellent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I heard Owens has already said no.

Beauprez...haha. Tough to tell you who's the bigger joke, him or Coors.

Schaffer's just Musgrave-lite.

McInnis is the only real viable candidate and his chances would still be only about 50/50.

[08watch]

No way they let Beauprez run. He just lost an open seat by 17%. He can't make up that ground in two years.

[Padfoot]

Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are both favoured to get in the race alongside Bob Beauprez, apparently. 

What a deliciously bloody and expensive primary that would produce on the Republican side. Whoever emerged the winner would be bloody and broke, while Udall waltzes through on the Dem side, untouched and stockpiling cash. Excellent.

I heard that Denver's mayor was interested which could be an inconvenience for Udall.  Udall would still win the nomination but it would score a much needed point for the Republicans if Udall had some degree of competition in his primary.

[Smash255]

Even if Owens were to jump in, Udall would be the odds on favorite, but it would at least make it competitive.  McInnins might mke it somewhat competitive, but nothing for the Dems to really worry about, pretty much the same, but even less so for Schaffer.  Beauprez, wouldn't have a chance, and Tancredo would absolutely get his ass handed to him.  As was stated he wouldn't break 40%.

[Deano963]

Bob Schaffer and Scott McInnis are both favoured to get in the race alongside Bob Beauprez, apparently. 

What a deliciously bloody and expensive primary that would produce on the Republican side. Whoever emerged the winner would be bloody and broke, while Udall waltzes through on the Dem side, untouched and stockpiling cash. Excellent.

I heard that Denver's mayor was interested which could be an inconvenience for Udall.  Udall would still win the nomination but it would score a much needed point for the Republicans if Udall had some degree of competition in his primary.

Yeh, something tells me Udall beats a guy with the last name "Hickenlooper" fairly easily.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I fear this race would only serve as a good opportunity to rid ourselves of either Musgrave or Tancredo.