InsideTheBeltway
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Posts: 78
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« on: January 15, 2007, 08:07:15 PM » |
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« edited: January 15, 2007, 08:10:15 PM by InsideTheBeltway »
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I'm going to try a ranking of the most vulnerable Senate seats for 2008, ranking from least to most vulnerable (this is very similar to what Chuck Todd does over at the National Journal). Obviously, a lot of this is difficult to asess without knowing who will retire/ who will run/ no polling, etc, but it might be fun anyway.
Comments/corrections/suggestions are welcome, as I'm still getting to used to making posts here.
33) Idaho-Larry Craig(R)-Can't think of any way he could be safer.
32) Rhode Island-Jack Reed(D)-No way Chafee or Carcieri take on the state's most popular politican (not that they'd win anyway).
31) Wyoming--Mike Enzi(R)-Unless Freudenthal runs, which seems quite unlikely, Enzi should get some 70% of the vote again.
30) Alaska-Ted Stevens(R)-Stevens' opponents haven't cracked 20% the last two times around.
29) Michigan-Carl Levin(D)- He recently announed he's running again, and should only face token opposition.
28) Ilinois-Dick Durbin(D)-Any possibly strong GOP challengers have said no, such as Reps. LaHood and Kirk, so Durbin should be in for a third term easily.
27) Delaware-Joe Biden(D)-This seems like the most likely scenario: Biden will run for President, drop out early on, then file for Senate before the June deadline. So long as this is the case, he'll be safe for re-election.
26) South Carolina-Lindsey Graham(R)-Unless the Republicans try to "Lieberman" him, he should be quite safe.
25) Kansas-Pat Roberts(R)-To my knowledge, Roberts hasn't officialy said he'll run again, but he's safe for re-election if he does and Republicans would likely hold it anyway if he doesn't.
24) Massachusetts-John Kerry(D)-50% disapproval aside, I can't imagine the Republicans seriously challenging for this seat. An open seat Democratic primary would be fun.
23) Tennessee-Lamar Alexander(R)-Democrats really had a perfect scenario for a pickup here in 2006 and fell three points short-Alexander should win without too much difficulty.
22) West Virginia-Jay Rockefeller(D)-His money will likely scare off any serious challenge, but if Rep. Capito gets in, it would be much more competitive.
21) Alabama-Jeff Sessions(R)-With Rep. Artur Davis recently saying no, Sessions should be in pretty good shape.
20) Nebraska-Chuck Hagel(R)-He's safe for re-election, while an open seat would favor the Repubicans also. Rep. Lee Terry might run for the GOP, while failed Congressional candidate Scott Klebb and Omaha mayor Mike Fahey could run for the Democrats.
19) Kentucky-Mitch McConnell(R)-His leader status could put a target on his back, and his approval ratings aren't great. Democrats may wait to take on Bunning in 2010, however.
18) Georgia-Saxby Chambliss(R)-This state's only getting more Republican, and Chambliss should be OK. Rep. Jim Marshall (D) would make it competitive, though.
17) New Mexico-Pete Domenici(R)-It souns like he'll run again, and he would be much lower on this list if he actually does. An open seat race would be very competitive, with perhaps all three of the state's congressman (and others) getting involved.
16) Mississippi-Thad Chocran(R)-He's safe if he runs again, while an open seat would be quite competitive. A likely matchup would be Rep. Chip Pickering(R) against former AG Mike Moore(D).
15) North Carolina-Elizabeth Dole(R)-It sounds like outgoing Gov. Easley isn't that interested, and Dole is in fairly good shape if he passes.
14) Oklahoma-James Inhofe(R)-His approval ratings are terrible, but Democrats found out how hard it was to win an open seat here in 2004 during a Presidential election year.
13) Texas-John Cornyn(R)-Pretty much the same deal as Inhofe.
12) Arkansas-Mark Pryor(D)-Pryor could be vulnerable, but the Republican bench here is awfully thin.
11) Virginia-John Warner(R)-It souns like he'll run again, and should be safe if he does. An open seat race would obviously be very intersting.
10) Montana-Max Baucus(D)-The only Senate poll for this cycle was here, which showed Baucus ahead of Rep. Denny Rehberg 48%-44%, if Rehberg declines Baucus is in far better shape.
9) New Jersey-Frank Lautenberg(D)-It sounds like state Rep. Bill Balboni of Mercer County is the most likely challenger, but picking a Republican win here is like picking the Cubs to win the World Series.
8 ) Maine-Susan Collins(R)-Rep. Tom Allen (D) is a strong challenger, but that 72% approval rating of hers is quite formidable.
7) Oregon-Gordon Smith(R)-His two strongest potential challengers, former Gov. John Kitzhaber and Rep. Peter DeFazio, have already indicated they won't run. Rep. Earl Blumenauer has the nomination if he wants it. He might seem too liberal and too "Portland" to win, but his House predecssor is sitting in the other Senate seat.
6) Iowa-Tom Harkin(D)-According to Chuck Schumer, Harkin is the only Democrat to not indicate (yet) that he's running again. Harkin has never gotten 55% of the vote, so he'll almost certainly be targeted. Republicans, most notably Rep. Steve King, would have a much better shot at an open seat.
5) South Dakota-Tim Johnson(D)-The situation is in limbo, of course, due to Senator Johnson's health. It looks increasingly likely that Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D) will be the next Senator but Governor Rounds shouldn't be discounted if he runs.
4) Minnesota-Norm Coleman(R)-Democrats need a candidate here, and a couple of possibilities have said no. I think the Republicans really want Al Franken to run.
3) New Hampshire-John Sununu(R)-He's dodged a couple of bullets with Gov. Lynch and Former Gov. Shaheen not running (probably), but he's still very vulnerable. This may well have been the Republicans' worst state in 2006.
2) Louisiana-Mary Landreiu(D)-She's won two close elections, and is clearly the top GOP target of 2008. Republicans seem to most actively be recruiting Rep. Boustany of SW LA. The governor's race this year should serve as a good predictor; if Republicans don't win that, it's hard to see how they win the Senate seat.
1) Colorado-Wayne Allard(R)-He announced today he's not running again, and Rep. Mark Udall(D) of Boulder is now the favorite. It'll be easier to determine how good the Republicans chances are here depending on which candidate they get.
Again, these rankings are rough and could easily be switiched around in some places, but hopefully they provide a general idea of 2008's landscape.
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