Which blue state Republican gubernatorial seats can the GOP keep?

[Suburbia]

Which blue state Republican gubernatorial seats can the GOP keep in the 2017-2018 gubernatorial election cycle? Chris Christie (NJ)'s seat is likely to go to a Democrat, Phil Murphy, but next year in 2018, Bruce Rauner (IL) and Larry Hogan (MD) are seen as likely vulnerable blue-state Republican governors. Charlie Baker (MA) and Phil Scott (VT) are seen as less vulnerable. Chris Sununu (NH) and term-limited Paul LePage (ME) are likely to see their governorship races as tossups.

I'll add term-limited governors Brian Sandoval (NV) and Susana Martinez (NM), despite the fact that I think that NV is still a swing state and can be won by a right Republican.

Which blue state gubernatorial seats can the GOP keep?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Phil Scott

[Skunk]

I see GOP keeping MA, NH, and VT.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Republicans keep VT NH MA MD NV

[Xing]

MA and VT are likely holds, they might hold on to MD, NV, and NH as well. IL and ME will be hard, but it's conceivable they could hold one or possibly both. NJ and NM are probably gone for them, though.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

NJ-25% chance at holding          
MA-65% chance at holding      
IL-40% chance at holding     
ME-40% chance at holding (60% with Susan Collins)
NH-55% chance at holding
VT -70% chance at holding
MD-60% chance at holding
NV-50% chance at holding
NM-45% chance at holding

[Kingpoleon]

MOST
Massachusetts
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maryland
Nevada
Illinois
New Mexico
Maine
New Jersey
LEAST

[PragmaticPopulist]

In order from most to least likely:

Vermont
Massachusetts

(significant gap)

Maryland
New Hampshire
Illinois
Nevada
Maine
New Mexico
New Jersey

[Ye We Can]

My gut feeling says the IL Dems bungle the election, despite the current climate.

[President Johnson]

Massachusetts. Charlie Baker is immensely popular and should win reelection under almost any circumstances.

[RINO Tom]

I mean, if we can only pick one (LOL, great poll, Bronzy), it's Massachusetts.  Baker is safer than safe.

From most to least likely to be re-elected, I'd guess:

MA
VT
MD
NH
NV
IL
NM
ME
NJ

[SoLongAtlas]

MA (Baker is a popular liberal Republican)
VT maybe
MD (Hogan is popular)

NV maybe

[jamestroll]

I am not very familiar with a lot of these states but I would start out Massachusetts and Vermont and Lean to Likely Republican. Vermont is quite elastic and retail politics can work there well. Charlie Baker has had no major errors to my knowledge and Massachusetts seems to like having one Republican in high office. That did not save Scott Brown in 2012 but Gubernatorial contests do not equal Senate contests and Baker has seemed to connect with the electorate better.

Hogan seems to be decently popularly with black voters but he could get booted out quite quickly if they show up to the polls and reflexively vote 9 to 1 Democratic in a poor climate for Republicans and white voters in Maryland may not vote Republican enough to save him. But I would say the race tilts to Hogan at this time.

Rauner in Illinois is interesting. He is the most endangered GOP Blue State incumbent but I am beginning to get the feeling that Democrats are getting overconfident in this contest.  Yes his approvals are underwater but unfortunately he has nearly unlimited resources. Kirk lost big but gave off an upstate politician aura while needing to win downstate Illinois big to win. Rauner is not as bad in that regard. Basically Rauner's path to victory is to solidify downstate Illinois while regaining support in the counties around Cook County. Looks tough on paper but it is certainly doable.

[_]

MA and VT at Likely R
MD and NH at Lean R
NV and ME at Tossup
NM at Lean D
NJ at Likely D

IL depends on the Dem nominee
Any other Dem besides Kennedy and Pritzker makes it Tilt/Lean D
Kennedy makes it Tossup
Pritzker makes it an incredibly narrow Tilt R

[TheSaint250]

MA and VT at Likely R
MD and NH at Lean R
NV and ME at Tossup
NM at Lean D
NJ at Likely D

IL depends on the Dem nominee
Any other Dem besides Kennedy and Pritzker makes it Tilt/Lean D
Kennedy makes it Tossup
Pritzker makes it an incredibly narrow Tilt R

Is pritzker more likely to win? I remember everyone hyping him up pre-announcement

[_]

MA and VT at Likely R
MD and NH at Lean R
NV and ME at Tossup
NM at Lean D
NJ at Likely D

IL depends on the Dem nominee
Any other Dem besides Kennedy and Pritzker makes it Tilt/Lean D
Kennedy makes it Tossup
Pritzker makes it an incredibly narrow Tilt R

Is pritzker more likely to win? I remember everyone hyping him up pre-announcement

This is just me, I'm sure others here have a different view on him, but just because he's got money doesn't mean he's a good candidate, got three strikes on him at this point.

1:  Running as a "Progressive" in a machine state, won't get Suburbanites or Progressives with that.
2:  Picked without being Picked by Madigan in the primary, another hit.
3:  The Blago Wiretaps.  Blago offered him Obama's senate seat, but he asked for State Treasurer instead.

So he's a fake progressive, Madigan's Hand Picked candidate, and is tied to Blago, I highly doubt he's favored at all.  (This is before what I expect will happen next, Quinn not running and endorsing Pritzker instead, another hit.)

[Young Conservative]

I do not see Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, or Maryland going to the Democrats next year.

[NewYorkExpress]

Vermont's the only one I could see as safe R as of right now.

Massachusetts really is that Democratic, so Baker should lose, with Trump's approval in the toilets unless national Democrats completely abandon the race. Same with Maryland.

Democrats should be able to pick up New Mexico, Nevada and New Jersey.

Maine should be a pickup, but I can see Democrats losing it in 2022.

Illinois is tricky, Democrats probably lose if they nominate Kennedy or Pritzker, but win with anyone else.

[Cactus Jack]

I don't see anyone taking out Phil Scott, and if the Republicans run Collins then Maine is also gone.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Asks which states potentially stay red.
Allows only 1 choice in the poll.

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't see anyone taking out Phil Scott, and if the Republicans run Collins then Maine is also gone.

I don't think Collins is going to run. She's just too vulnerable in a primary and she knows it. My guess is she doesn't run for Governor, and retires in 2020.

[GoldenMainer]

To you and all the others who think Maine is less likely to vote R than IL/NM/etc.: Is there an obvious Democratic frontrunner who will make the race Likely D? Because if not, I don't see how Maine will be more difficult to hold than IL, NM, etc.

A few things to note:

Maine hasn't elected back to back governors from the same party since the 50s. I don't see that changing now given Trump & Lepage's subpar approval ratings and Maine's desire to not be in the news every month for something stupid our governor says.

The strongest Democratic candidate would be Troy Jackson, a 48 year old Bernie superdelegate in a state that loves Bernie. He's a logger who can speak to blue collar workers and represents a portion of more conservative northern Maine in the state senate. I don't see Maine Democrats making the same mistake they have been making in Senate/Gubernatorial races in having establishment, uninspiring candidates in the general. And even if the Dem candidate isn't great, there will most likely be an independent waiting in the wings.

Another question to ponder is who the Republicans could nominate. Mayhew is too easily tied to Lepage. Poliquin has lost statewide races twice and his vote for the AHCA will make him DOA. If a respected moderate like Collins or Snowe isn't running, I can't see a Republican who can separate themselves from Trump & Lepage.

[Dr. MB]

I think Baker and Scott will easily win again. Hogan probably. New Hampshire and Nevada maybe. Illinois and NM probably not, and Maine and NJ definitely not.