Conservatives try to target N. England
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  Conservatives try to target N. England
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2007, 01:49:54 PM »

LD's would gain all those seats where Labour wins with less than 50% and LD's outpoll Tories, but there aren't many of those.

Not all Tory votes would bother to list a second preferance and quite a few die hards would stay at home with a 2nd ballot; Labour would have a decent chance at holding the ones where they were only a few % off 50%.

But yeah, in most such seats it'd be a throwback to sort of results you got in some seats (like Bolton West) in the '50's.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2007, 01:58:38 PM »

LD's would gain all those seats where Labour wins with less than 50% and LD's outpoll Tories, but there aren't many of those.

Not all Tory votes would bother to list a second preferance and quite a few die hards would stay at home with a 2nd ballot; Labour would have a decent chance at holding the ones where they were only a few % off 50%.
True o/c, especially with a real runoff.
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Rural Radical
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« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2007, 02:05:13 PM »

LD's would gain all those seats where Labour wins with less than 50% and LD's outpoll Tories, but there aren't many of those.

Not all Tory votes would bother to list a second preferance and quite a few die hards would stay at home with a 2nd ballot; Labour would have a decent chance at holding the ones where they were only a few % off 50%.
True o/c, especially with a real runoff.

I would like to see this system come about.

Regarding Yorkshire. Labour will come top. Cameron will only Do well with people who should vote Tory anyway.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2007, 02:14:47 PM »

Those rural parts of Yorkshire are very Tory and always have been - constituencies like Skipton and Ripon, Ryedale, Vale of York and Richmond (the one in North Yorkshire, not the one in south-west London) are some of the safest Tory seats you'll find anywhere.

True; although the Liberals came close in the old Skipton seat throughout the '70's and have won Ryedale and Ripon in by-elections (before losing them in the next General election).
Suprisingly, a Labour minority vote seems to have developed in Ryedale in recent years (which has o/c made the seat safer for the Tories as the LibDems now only poll well in the York suburbs).
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #29 on: January 21, 2007, 02:52:55 PM »

I read some of James Herriott's books when I was younger. And I got the sense that Yorkshire was this large, rural, isolated place. So its strange to see the people there as Labour supporters. I guess Yorkshire isn't a British version of Nebraska.

Those rural parts of Yorkshire are very Tory and always have been - constituencies like Skipton and Ripon, Ryedale, Vale of York and Richmond (the one in North Yorkshire, not the one in south-west London) are some of the safest Tory seats you'll find anywhere.

However, most of the population of Yorkshire is accounted for by the Labour-inclined big cities, like Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford and Hull, or by overwhelmingly working-class former mining towns like Rotherham, Doncaster, Wakefield, Barnsley etc. Hence Yorkshire is a strongly Labour region.

Cubby Smiley,

Merseysider sums up the politics of Yorkshire very well Smiley. Yorkshire is a rather diverse county, economically and politically.

Traditionally, it was divided into three 'Ridings': North, East and West. However, local government reorganisation in 1974 created:

1) North Yorkshire, which was basically created from the greater part of the North Riding. Largely rural with some leafy small towns, its politics, for the most part, are Conservative. This is the Yorkshire with which you are familiar; that of James Herriott and All Creatures Great and Small . It has some mining around the town of Selby, but even here the Conservatives dominated until 1997

2) South Yorkshire, which was basically created from the southern part of the West Riding. It is dominated by the city of Sheffield and, as Merseysider says, the former mining town like Barnsley, Doncaster and Rotherham. As a county, politically, it is nothing short of a Labour fiefdom. In fact, it's nickname, which can be both flattering and unflattering depending on ones politics, is the 'Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire'

3) West Yorkshire, which was basically created from the core of the West Riding. It is dominated by the cities of Leeds and Bradford and a significant number of smaller towns, mostly, to their south. It also includes some fairly rural areas in the west of the county and some former mining areas in the south eastern part of the county. However, its politics are more diverse than that of North Yorkshire and South Yorkshire, though it generally favors Labour

In the 1997 General Election, the Conservatives were wiped out in both South and West Yorkshire, while Labour made inroads in North Yorkshire

In South Yorkshire, the Conservatives lost their only seat - Sheffield Hallam to the Liberal Democrats; given a total of 14 Labour MP's and 1 Liberal Democrat

In West Yorkshire, the Conservatives lost 9 seats to Labour, giving Labour control of all 23 seats in the county. In 2005, however, they regained Shipley from Labour, while Labour lost Leeds North West to the Liberal Democrats

In North Yorkshire, the Conservatives lost Scarborough and Whitby and Selby to Labour to add to the City of York, which Labour had gained in 1992; while they lost Harrogate to the Liberal Democrats. In 2005, however, they regained Scarborough and Whitby from Labour

At the local government level, the most significant development of late has been the erosion of Labour support in the metropolitan boroughs of West Yorkshire, while the City of Sheffield was for a shortwhile controlled by the Liberal Democrats

In addition to North, South and West Yorkshire, 1974 local government reorganisation created:

1) Cleveland, which was created from the south eastern most part of County Durham (yes, the safest most Labour shire county in England) and the northeastern most part of the North Riding. It is currently dominated by Labour, the Conservatives having lost Stockton South and Middlesborough South and East Cleveland (formerly Langbaurgh) to Labour in 1997

2) Humberside, which was created out of the East Riding of Yorkshire and the northern most part of Lincolnshire, together with the former county-town of Kingston-upon-Hull. As far as the Yorkshire part goes, politically, it couldn't be any more polarised with Labour dominating Hull and the Conservatives the East Riding

The 1974 local government reorganisation also saw small parts of Yorkshire ceded to Cumbria, Lancashire Shocked, County Durham and Greater Manchester

In 1986, the metropolitan county councils of South and West Yorkshire were abolished creating single-tier local government based on the existing metropolitan borough councils

In 1996 Cleveland and Humberside county councils were abolished (being artificial creations, they were never that popular) and broken into unitary authorities. Unitary status was also granted on an extended City of York. The bulk of the Yorkshire part of Humberside became known as the East Riding of Yorkshire, with Kingston-upon-Hull having its own unitary authority

Dave
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LucysBeau
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« Reply #30 on: January 21, 2007, 03:01:01 PM »

From the Yorkshire Post January 17, 2007:

Cameron Fails to Win Over Voters in Yorkshire

http://www.yorkshiretoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=55&ArticleID=1975616

Changes since 2005:

Labour 42% (-2)
Conservative 29% (n/c)
Lib Dem 15% (-6) Smiley
Others 15%

The pollsters should be doing more regional polling in England

Dave

I think the Lib Dems are down a lot is because in 2005 they were inflated by voters protesting the Iraq War. If I recall, they were the only major party that was against it. So it was only temporary support.

I'd like to think voters were wising up as far as the Liberal Democrats - the 'Begging Boys of British Politics' - are concerned now Wink. But even I would prefer even this lot to fare much better than the BNP, especially, or UKIP. The former of which should be wiped off the face of God's earth

Basically, as far as this polls findings are concerned, it seems likely Labour and the Conservatives could have lost support to other parties (mostly likely the BNP and UKIP), but their numbers have been buffered by Lib Dem voters switching to them

Dave
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Cubby
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« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2007, 10:54:06 PM »

But even I would prefer even this lot to fare much better than the BNP, especially, or UKIP. The former of which should be wiped off the face of God's earth
Dave

The BNP is good for entertainment value at least. I think they're a (laugh) riot.

UKIP is lame, its like a watered down, more PC version of the BNP. All they care about is the EU. Without it, they'd cease to exist.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #32 on: January 22, 2007, 03:45:14 PM »

Talking about Burnley, it's just emerged that the LibDem group on Burnley council voted for a BNP counciller to take some area committee seat, in spite of public statements that they would not work or co-operate with the BNP.
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afleitch
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« Reply #33 on: January 22, 2007, 03:54:51 PM »

But even I would prefer even this lot to fare much better than the BNP, especially, or UKIP. The former of which should be wiped off the face of God's earth
Dave

The BNP is good for entertainment value at least. I think they're a (laugh) riot.

UKIP is lame, its like a watered down, more PC version of the BNP. All they care about is the EU. Without it, they'd cease to exist.

They have came in handy of late- they are encouraging the defection of the Conservatives worst to their party. The more the merrier I say Smiley
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Cubby
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« Reply #34 on: January 24, 2007, 06:18:22 AM »

But even I would prefer even this lot to fare much better than the BNP, especially, or UKIP. The former of which should be wiped off the face of God's earth
Dave

The BNP is good for entertainment value at least. I think they're a (laugh) riot.

UKIP is lame, its like a watered down, more PC version of the BNP. All they care about is the EU. Without it, they'd cease to exist.

They have came in handy of late- they are encouraging the defection of the Conservatives worst to their party. The more the merrier I say Smiley

Do sane people ever consider the BNP an option?- They only seem poll above 5% in seats where there are lots of minorities and disgruntled whites. (I'm refering to Westminster elections, I don't know about local or council votes)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: January 24, 2007, 07:53:30 AM »

Do sane people ever consider the BNP an option?-

Various surveys and stuff indicate that only about a fifth-to-a-quarter of the population would ever consider voting for the BNP in any circumstances (while numbers for other parties tend to be in the 60's and sometimes higher).

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A crucial difference between Westminster and local elections is turnout; nutters are far more likely to vote in local elections than most people.
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Cubby
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« Reply #36 on: January 24, 2007, 05:11:31 PM »

Do sane people ever consider the BNP an option?-

Various surveys and stuff indicate that only about a fifth-to-a-quarter of the population would ever consider voting for the BNP in any circumstances (while numbers for other parties tend to be in the 60's and sometimes higher).

Thats still much higher than I thought. I don't know what makes the BNP more acceptable than the Monster Raving Loony Party.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #37 on: January 24, 2007, 05:15:16 PM »

Thats still much higher than I thought.

Depends how you look at it really.

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I suspect you would find a slightly higher % would consider voting OMRLP than BNP. Doesn't mean they will or are even being entirely serious about it; that's the problem with hypothetical questions.
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