How much will Kerry get against the GOP sacrificial lamb?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Right now I'd guess 58%.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably similar to what Kennedy got, at least 65%.

[Alcon]

Depends on whether Joel Mahoney runs.

[Eraserhead]

Depends who it is...off the top of my head I will say about 60%.

[AndrewTX]

I would say about 55% of the vote. A third party candidate would probably get 25%, while the republican gets 20%

[they don't love you like i love you]

I would say about 55% of the vote. A third party candidate would probably get 25%, while the republican gets 20%

What third party candidate strong enough to do that exists?

[AndrewTX]

I would say about 55% of the vote. A third party candidate would probably get 25%, while the republican gets 20%

What third party candidate strong enough to do that exists?

I dunno.. maybe Joseph Kennedy. All I know is that as of last month, Kerry had a 43% approval rating. It's possible that if some left wing third party candidate who is crediable runs up against Kerry, Massachusettes republicans (probably all 9 of them) are going to go out for him, hoping to get rid of Kerry.

 I'm no expert in Mass. politics, but I think that seems like it could be a possibility.

[Adlai Stevenson]

As I have already stated, I think Kerry may get a challenge in the Democratic Primary; possibly from a formidable Democratic Congressman. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

As I have already stated, I think Kerry may get a challenge in the Democratic Primary; possibly from a formidable Democratic Congressman. 

He still has a 66% approval rating among Democrats. What Congressman is going to throw away their safe seat over this?

Incumbent Senators hardly ever lose primaries. Lieberman was the exception, not the rule, and even he barely lost despite being WAY out of touch on the war with the Democratic base. There is simply no such equivalent issue with Kerry.

[AndrewTX]

Again though, when you look at Lieberman, he got about 65% at the democratic convention, than went on to lose the primary.

 You're telling me there is no way this man will go down in a primary, or that a Congressman is going to give up his seat for a try?

[they don't love you like i love you]

You're telling me there is no way this man will go down in a primary

Unless he gets caught in a scandal or does something VERY stupid, yes. Cases like Lieberman's are the exception, not the rule and Kerry still has support among the Democratic base. Kerry is actually still relatively popular on DU. I'm pretty sure you can all figure out how Lieberman is regarded on DU. Now I know someone's going to say "Who cares about DU?" but they represent the grassroots, which a primary challenger to an incumbent is going to absolutely need to get anywhere. Furthermore, Lieberman probably would've actually won had he not basically given up on the primary in the last few days and instead focused only on setting up his third party campaign.

Lieberman is also only something like the 4th or 5th Senator to lose the primary since the 80s. It doesn't happen that often, and a Senator simply not having very good ratings in a state as Democratic as Massachusetts isn't going to make another case.

or that a Congressman is going to give up his seat for a try?

That I'm pretty damn sure isn't going to happen.

For a good analogy, look at Mike DeWine and Conrad Burns, more notably Burns. DeWine had approval ratings similar to Kerry, Burns' were even worse. Both had primary challenges, and both won. In the case of Burns, his primary challenger was probably the better candidate for the general. Plus Burns' ratings were much more deserved, due to his corruption and senile idiocy, and he still lost only by a point in a state that's less Republican than Massachusetts is Democratic in a Democratic wave year. As far as DeWine, he did go down pretty hard, but he had a credible opponent in a state where Bush and Taft had made the political climate so toxic that running as a Republican was basically the same as running for the National Socialist Workers Party. That is not going to happen in Massachusetts.

[Soaring Eagle]

As I have already stated, I think Kerry may get a challenge in the Democratic Primary; possibly from a formidable Democratic Congressman. 

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