CNN/Opinion Research poll: Clinton and Giuliani leading

[Tender Branson]

Clinton: 34%
Obama: 18%
Edwards: 15%
Gore: 10%
Kerry: 5%
Biden: 3%
Clark: 2%
Kucinich: 2%
Richardson: 2%
Dodd: 1%
Sharpton: 1%
Vilsack: 1%
No Opinion: 7%

Giuliani: 32%
McCain: 26%
Gingrich: 9%
Romney: 7%
Gilmore: 3%
Pataki: 3%
Brownback: 2%
Hagel: 1%
Huckabee: 1%
Hunter: 1%
Paul: 1%
Tancredo: 1%
Thompson: 1%
No Opinion: 12%

Interviews with 1,008 adult Americans, including 467 registered voters who describe themselves as Democrats or Independents who lean to the Democratic party and 365 registered voters who describe themselves as Republicans or Independents who lean to the Republican party, conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on January 19-21, 2007. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points, for Democrats it is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and for Republicans it is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

[Verily]

Changes:

D
Clinton: -3
Obama: +3
Edwards: +6
Gore: -4
Kerry: -2
Biden: +1
Clark: -
Kucinich: +2 (previously not included)
Richardson: -
Dodd: +1 (previously not included)
Sharpton: +1 (previously not included)
Vilsack: -

R
Giuliani: +3
McCain: +2
Gingrich: -4
Romney: +1
Gilmore: +3 (previously not included)
Pataki: +1
Brownback: -
Hagel: +1 (previously not included)
Huckabee: +1 (previously not included)
Hunter: -
Paul: +1 (previously not included)
Tancredo: +1 (previously not included)
Thompson: -1


Obama, Edwards have positive momentum. Clinton, Gingrich have negative momentum. Gore is declining as it becomes obvious he isn't running.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama does have momentum, sure, but it now really looks like that Rasmussen poll from last week that showed Obama within 1 point of Clinton was an outlier.  Pretty much every poll this month has now shown Clinton with a double digit lead over Obama, albeit a smaller one than she used to have.

Not that I think national polls in a state-by-state primary contest mean very much. 

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Obama does have momentum, sure, but it now really looks like that Rasmussen poll from last week that showed Obama within 1 point of Clinton was an outlier.  Pretty much every poll this month has now shown Clinton with a double digit lead over Obama, albeit a smaller one than she used to have.

Not that I think national polls in a state-by-state primary contest mean very much. 

Yeah especially with Clinton biting the dust in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Verily]

Obama does have momentum, sure, but it now really looks like that Rasmussen poll from last week that showed Obama within 1 point of Clinton was an outlier.  Pretty much every poll this month has now shown Clinton with a double digit lead over Obama, albeit a smaller one than she used to have.

Not that I think national polls in a state-by-state primary contest mean very much. 

Rasmussen has historically shown the race closer than all other pollsters; he may have a stronger filter for respondents. (In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he uses likely voters and everyone else uses registered voters, which would help explain why Hillary does better with everyone else: she appeals to those who don't know much about the candidates.)

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Obama does have momentum, sure, but it now really looks like that Rasmussen poll from last week that showed Obama within 1 point of Clinton was an outlier.  Pretty much every poll this month has now shown Clinton with a double digit lead over Obama, albeit a smaller one than she used to have.

Not that I think national polls in a state-by-state primary contest mean very much. 

Rasmussen has historically shown the race closer than all other pollsters; he may have a stronger filter for respondents. (In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he uses likely voters and everyone else uses registered voters, which would help explain why Hillary does better with everyone else: she appeals to those who don't know much about the candidates.)

Haha so very true. Its kind of hard not to trust Rasmussen too...the guy was on fire last year.