In Massachusetts, GOP Sees Vulernable Kerry

[Verily]

If the GOP narrowly loses Virginia and barely holds on to Tennessee, how in God's name do they get the idea that they could actually make it competitive in Massachusetts of all places?! 

Good question. The GOP is all but extinct in Massachusetts. It's not even like the South or Utah, where Democrats are few but at least represented. The Republicans hold a scant 19 of 160 seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and 5 of 40 in the Massachusetts Senate and are likely to lose more as incumbents retire. Republicans hold no House seats in Massachusetts, haven't held one since 1996, and contested only three of the ten seats in 2006, of which their best result was 29.4%. (Five Democrats ran unopposed, one against the Working Families Party and one against the Socialist Workers Party.) Having now lost the governorship, the Massachusetts Republican Party is completely and utterly dead.

[Rob]

LOL

Republican Party = joke

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Go ahead, waste your money idiots.

Kerry is safe in the primary too. His approval rating among Democrats is 66%.

[Kevin]

Go ahead, waste your money idiots.

Kerry is safe in the primary too. His approval rating among Democrats is 66%.

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   
 

[Alcon]

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   

A lot of that is probably residual anger for losing 2004, which I doubt will translate into a primary loss.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible.

That's the primary electorate. 66% of the vote is sitting pretty good, even in a primary.

Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.

If Kerry's opponent decides to send a minority to track him and Kerry calls him an ethnic slur then we can use this analogy.

[Kevin]

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   

A lot of that is probably residual anger for losing 2004, which I doubt will translate into a primary loss.

I know but still Kerry is vunerable and that can be exploted.

[Kevin]

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible.

That's the primary electorate. 66% of the vote is sitting pretty good, even in a primary.

Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.

If Kerry's opponent decides to send a minority to track him and Kerry calls him an ethnic slur then we can use this analogy.

Kerry has already had several gaffe moments including the eltist " Study hard or you will end up in Iraq" moment. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible.

That's the primary electorate. 66% of the vote is sitting pretty good, even in a primary.

Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.

If Kerry's opponent decides to send a minority to track him and Kerry calls him an ethnic slur then we can use this analogy.

Kerry has already had several gaffe moments including the eltist " Study hard or you will end up in Iraq" moment. 

Accidentally saying a joke wrong is quite different from what Allen did. What Allen did wasn't really a gaffe, since he wasn't misunderstood and he didn't mispeak.

Aside from that, the two states are not comparable, the Democrats have a strong presence in Virginia, the MA GOP is virtually non-existent, even on a local level.

[Kevin]

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible.

That's the primary electorate. 66% of the vote is sitting pretty good, even in a primary.

Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.

If Kerry's opponent decides to send a minority to track him and Kerry calls him an ethnic slur then we can use this analogy.

Kerry has already had several gaffe moments including the eltist " Study hard or you will end up in Iraq" moment. 

Accidentally saying a joke wrong is quite different from what Allen did. What Allen did wasn't really a gaffe, since he wasn't misunderstood and he didn't mispeak.

Aside from that, the two states are not comparable, the Democrats have a strong presence in Virginia, the MA GOP is virtually non-existent, even on a local level.

But again it could be argued that Kerry understood what he was saying and it was an eltist insult. Also if you think about it both comments could be easily mistaken for insults.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Except it's quite clear that's not what he meant at all. Besides, that's not the reason his numbers are low, and that alone is not enough to sink a Democrat in a state where the GOP doesn't even have anyone capable of taking a House seat, much less Senate.

[ag]

I can imagine Kerry loosing (a low probability even, but still). But, conditional on that happening, it almost certainly means either a Republican comes distant third, or else Republicans don't bother to nominate anyone.

Still, even that would be unlikely.  As for an actual Republican winning: Mass voters don't like Kerry because he lost to a Republican.   They aren't going to vote for a Republican because of that - unless, possibly, if that Republican pledges before the election that he is going to caucus w/ Dems (perhaps, if Republicans could pursuade Barney Frank to run on their line:) ).  Kerry could eat a Republican candidate's small kids alive on TV in primetime, and he would still not run much of a risk.  Even 45% is, probably, far beyond the reach of almost any Republican candidate - perhaps, if Kerry decides to run all his campaign purely in French, they could get that high.  Given the odds, chances of any candiate capable of making this a race actually running are pretty small, anyways.

[Gabu]

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   

66% among Democrats is more than enough for him to get through the primary.

[ag]

But again it could be argued that Kerry understood what he was saying and it was an eltist insult. Also if you think about it both comments could be easily mistaken for insults.

Sure. Even then he is safe: metro Boston alone has over 60 institutions of higher learning (and election day happens to be during the school year).  Mass suburbanites (and students) love elitist insults, Mass urban poor, like elsewhere, aren't particularly attracted to Republicans, and Mass rural dwellers have come to the conclusion that the Republican party is in league with the Devil and that voting Republican means going with Antichrist.  

This is the one place where even an elitist insult isn't going to destroy a campaign.  Those in Mass that, under certain conditions, might vote Republican actually like to think of themselves as elite and are pretty good at insults themselves. What is that constituency that is going to vote Repubilcan because of it? The Irish in South Boston? Ok, may be. Even that's not enough.
 

[Verily]

Go ahead, waste your money idiots.

Kerry is safe in the primary too. His approval rating among Democrats is 66%.

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   
 

Read the below. Unlike Virginia for the Democrats, there is no credible Republican Party in all of Massachusetts.

The GOP is all but extinct in Massachusetts. It's not even like the South or Utah, where Democrats are few but at least represented. The Republicans hold a scant 19 of 160 seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and 5 of 40 in the Massachusetts Senate and are likely to lose more as incumbents retire. Republicans hold no House seats in Massachusetts, haven't held one since 1996, and contested only three of the ten seats in 2006, of which their best result was 29.4%. (Five Democrats ran unopposed, one against the Working Families Party and one against the Socialist Workers Party.) Having now lost the governorship, the Massachusetts Republican Party is completely and utterly dead.

Compare:

Virginia
US House Delegation
8 Republicans
3 Democrats

House of Delegates
57 Republicans
40 Democrats
3 Independents

Senate
23 Republicans
17 Democrats

Massachusetts
US House Delegation
10 Democrats

House of Representatives
141 Democrats
19 Republicans

Senate
35 Democrats
5 Republicans

[Kevin]

Go ahead, waste your money idiots.

Kerry is safe in the primary too. His approval rating among Democrats is 66%.

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   
 

Read the below. Unlike Virginia for the Democrats, there is no credible Republican Party in all of Massachusetts.

The GOP is all but extinct in Massachusetts. It's not even like the South or Utah, where Democrats are few but at least represented. The Republicans hold a scant 19 of 160 seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and 5 of 40 in the Massachusetts Senate and are likely to lose more as incumbents retire. Republicans hold no House seats in Massachusetts, haven't held one since 1996, and contested only three of the ten seats in 2006, of which their best result was 29.4%. (Five Democrats ran unopposed, one against the Working Families Party and one against the Socialist Workers Party.) Having now lost the governorship, the Massachusetts Republican Party is completely and utterly dead.

Compare:

Virginia
US House Delegation
8 Republicans
3 Democrats

House of Delegates
57 Republicans
40 Democrats
3 Independents

Senate
23 Republicans
17 Democrats

Massachusetts
US House Delegation
10 Democrats

House of Representatives
141 Democrats
19 Republicans

Senate
35 Democrats
5 Republicans

This doesn't mean an upset can't happen.

[Verily]

Go ahead, waste your money idiots.

Kerry is safe in the primary too. His approval rating among Democrats is 66%.

66% among Democrats in the most liberal state in the Union for an incumbent Democratic Senator is horrible. Also don't underestimate Kerrys opponets on the Repubican side of this, George Allens opponet was underestimated and look where he is now.   
 

Read the below. Unlike Virginia for the Democrats, there is no credible Republican Party in all of Massachusetts.

The GOP is all but extinct in Massachusetts. It's not even like the South or Utah, where Democrats are few but at least represented. The Republicans hold a scant 19 of 160 seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and 5 of 40 in the Massachusetts Senate and are likely to lose more as incumbents retire. Republicans hold no House seats in Massachusetts, haven't held one since 1996, and contested only three of the ten seats in 2006, of which their best result was 29.4%. (Five Democrats ran unopposed, one against the Working Families Party and one against the Socialist Workers Party.) Having now lost the governorship, the Massachusetts Republican Party is completely and utterly dead.

Compare:

Virginia
US House Delegation
8 Republicans
3 Democrats

House of Delegates
57 Republicans
40 Democrats
3 Independents

Senate
23 Republicans
17 Democrats

Massachusetts
US House Delegation
10 Democrats

House of Representatives
141 Democrats
19 Republicans

Senate
35 Democrats
5 Republicans

This doesn't mean an upset can't happen.

If I told you in January 2005 that Orrin Hatch was going down in defeat in 2006, except that Utah was even more Republican than it is now (we can do that comparison, too; the Democrats are in better shape in Utah than the Republicans are in Mass.), you would laugh in my face.

[CPT MikeyMike]

It's simply sad that Kerry probably won't have any quality Republican oppisition. Kerry would lose his seat in any other state than Massachusetts. He is a simply a joke and a horrible person who needs to get out of public life for the sake of all of us.

At least with Barney Frank or a Ed Markey, you know what you are going to get, even if you don't agree with them one bit.  With Kerry, it a loose cannon.

[HardRCafé]

ROFLMFAO!!!!!

My, we are easily entertained.

[JSojourner]

The very idea that some Republicans think they have a chance of beating John Kerry in Massachusetts in a presidential election year amuses me.

Kerry has $13 million, an unparalleled e-mail list from '04, and he's the incumbent Democrat in the most liberal state in the country. Nuff said.

Could Cellucci or Weld beat Kerry?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The very idea that some Republicans think they have a chance of beating John Kerry in Massachusetts in a presidential election year amuses me.

Kerry has $13 million, an unparalleled e-mail list from '04, and he's the incumbent Democrat in the most liberal state in the country. Nuff said.

Could Cellucci or Weld beat Kerry?

Dude, just because people are mad at Kerry for losing a Presidential election to the worst President ever doesn't mean he'd lose to a Republican.

[bullmoose88]

We have no chance in hell. MA seems like a state where liberals, conservatives and moderates seem happy all being in the democratic party. The GOP is a niche party for certain sectors of society.

It has to change, but its not going to change soon enough to unseat Kerry (who I wish was president over the current fool in office. RfK04!)

The GOP needs to reestablish itself on the local level...but with the national party bordering on batsh**t crazy (and southern) its not gonna have much credibility.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Could Cellucci or Weld beat Kerry?

They're yesterday's news.

Better than Kerry: Hell yeah.

Defeat Kerry in '08: Doubt it - probably would get 40-45% though.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Texas is much more likely to replace Cornyn with a Dem than Mass is to replace Kerry with a Republican.

That is certainly close simply because MA has voted GOP for gov several times in recent years, there are some good candidates for the GOP, and Kerry has incited more angst

[Akno21]

Kerry already had a tough Republican opponent, in 1996, and he defeated Bill Weld by 8 points. I can't see any current MA Republican being a better candidate than Weld was in 1996, and Kerry will have more money, a better campaign structure, and will have twice the experience he had in '96.