Kerry: credible primary challenger/win the primary/win the general

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What I actually wanted to post that didn't fit was:

Will Kerry have a credible primary challenger/will he win the primary/will he win the general?

I've only included options that make sense (obviously he can't win the general if he loses the primary or lose the primary without a credible challenger).

I vote no/yes/yes

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'll say yes/yes/yes.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I vote yes/no/no, but w/e you voted the 2nd and 3rd ans have to be the same, there's no way he loses to a Republican.  I just think people are getting tired of him in Massachusetts even and his Iraq War vote could bite him especially considering the fact that Meehan and Tierney are very credible challengers.

[Soaring Eagle]

Yes/No/No.

I'll come back to this post in 2008 to see if I was right.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The things people forget is:

1-Incumbent senators hardly ever lose
2-When they do lose, it's because there's a massive movement against them, either from the party establishment (Bob Smith) or grassroots (Lieberman). I don't see any such movement against Kerry.
3-The MA Reps probably realize this and none are going to throw away their safe seats as a result. Of course one might be as dumb as Ed Case, but I doubt it.

[adam]

The only remote threat that jackass faces is perhaps a primary opponent who could pull in 35%, thus exploiting uncertainty within the party about him. Either way, as sad as it is, John Kerry will still be a senator come the 2009 inauguration.

[Verily]

No/Yes/Yes, though Yes/No/NA and Yes/Yes/Yes are also reasonably possible. (Obviously, Yes/No/NA would be my favorite, with Markey as the new Senator.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

no/yes/yes

[Adlai Stevenson]

The things people forget is:

1-Incumbent senators hardly ever lose
2-When they do lose, it's because there's a massive movement against them, either from the party establishment (Bob Smith) or grassroots (Lieberman). I don't see any such movement against Kerry.
3-The MA Reps probably realize this and none are going to throw away their safe seats as a result. Of course one might be as dumb as Ed Case, but I doubt it.

Ed Case did quite well considering; to the detriment of Akaka he also raised doubts about his age.  Akaka won 61%-37%, impressive, but Case would almost certainly have done better polls showed.  Kerry could face Steven Lynch, for example, win the Primary 2-1 but obviously be weakened in the general. 

[MAS117]

Why would anyone actually credible in the Democratic Party challenge John Kerry in a primary?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Why would anyone actually credible in the Democratic Party challenge John Kerry in a primary?

Because he is weakened.  Massachusetts disapproves of him 40%-53% according to the latest Survey USA poll.  Also because there are a lot of ambitious Democratics statewide and in the Congressional delagation; they are partly angry with him for losing in 2004 because they all wanted to run for his seat.  The last open seat election was in 1984; hence there are a lot of Democrats in Massachusetts who want to run for the Senate and have not had the chance.  It would be hard to unseat him but surely someone will consider it. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why would anyone actually credible in the Democratic Party challenge John Kerry in a primary?

Because he is weakened.  Massachusetts disapproves of him 40%-53% according to the latest Survey USA poll.  Also because there are a lot of ambitious Democratics statewide and in the Congressional delagation; they are partly angry with him for losing in 2004 because they all wanted to run for his seat.  The last open seat election was in 1984; hence there are a lot of Democrats in Massachusetts who want to run for the Senate and have not had the chance.  It would be hard to unseat him but surely someone will consider it. 

Except his approval among Democrats is still 66%. That's more than enough to win any primary, especially when you consider he would destroy any opponent in fundraising.

[opebo]

no/yes/yes.  All the other options are, quite frankly, rather silly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

no/yes/yes.  All the other options are, quite frankly, rather silly.

That's what I'm thinking.

No one who believes Kerry will lose the primary has explained how his opponent would get grassroots support ala Lamont.

[AndrewTX]

I think Kerry will have a credible challenger in the primary, but Kerry will probably win it. Regardless of who wins the primary, the democrat will win the election in a landslide.