Pennsylvania 2008

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah, this is an earful, but if McCain runs, a lot of seats could potentially switch back.  Iraq doesn't go well and the GOP nominates a Brownback or Tancredo, there could be even more Dem gains.

My picks: 

D -> R: Chris Carney (D, PA 10) District is too conservative and he got in on a scandal

McCain leads ticket look for PA 8 to be competitive.

R -> D: Jim Gerlach (R, PA 6)  District is moving leftward in a painfully slow manner, but it will get there.

Iraq doesn't go well and the GOP nominates loon, Charlie Dent (R, PA 15) could be vulnerable.  Dems will challenge this seat from what I'm hearing.

[bullmoose88]

Gerlach could fall, though considering it didnt happen in 06, its hard to see it happening.

Dents district looks safe for now (probably a couple more years before the exurban conservativism starts to morph into suburban liberalism)

Pat Murphy could fall, given a good Republican at the top of the GOP ticket and a good competitor (Outside of Tomlinson, Fitzpatrick or Greenwood doing something shocking) a good competitor isnt to be found right now. Plus Murphy seems to be intent at doing what he needs to do to get re-elected. Its hard to unseat an incumbent in PA-08, it would take a 2006 type of election to do it.

[TeePee4Prez]

Gerlach could fall, though considering it didnt happen in 06, its hard to see it happening.

Dents district looks safe for now (probably a couple more years before the exurban conservativism starts to morph into suburban liberalism)

Pat Murphy could fall, given a good Republican at the top of the GOP ticket and a good competitor (Outside of Tomlinson, Fitzpatrick or Greenwood doing something shocking) a good competitor isnt to be found right now. Plus Murphy seems to be intent at doing what he needs to do to get re-elected. Its hard to unseat an incumbent in PA-08, it would take a 2006 type of election to do it.

If things don't go better in Iraq by 2008, look for Gerlach to fall.

Also, Dent got nipped a little bit last election against someone not well known or well-funded.

[bullmoose88]

Gerlach could fall, though considering it didnt happen in 06, its hard to see it happening.

Dents district looks safe for now (probably a couple more years before the exurban conservativism starts to morph into suburban liberalism)

Pat Murphy could fall, given a good Republican at the top of the GOP ticket and a good competitor (Outside of Tomlinson, Fitzpatrick or Greenwood doing something shocking) a good competitor isnt to be found right now. Plus Murphy seems to be intent at doing what he needs to do to get re-elected. Its hard to unseat an incumbent in PA-08, it would take a 2006 type of election to do it.

If things don't go better in Iraq by 2008, look for Gerlach to fall.

Also, Dent got nipped a little bit last election against someone not well known or well-funded.

Dents smaller majority might be due to a generic antiRepublican 2006 effect...who knows what would happen in 08

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Dent was a big missed opportunity. We blew it not going after him. We should this time.

Has Gerlach jumped on the anti-Iraq bandwagon? He better.

(spam trap test: austinmoweryrtle@gmail.com )

[Mr.Phips]

I think Sestak, Murphy, and Altmire are probably in good shape.

[TeePee4Prez]

Seems like someone voted one of each.  Was it DWTL?

[TeePee4Prez]

Dent was a big missed opportunity. We blew it not going after him. We should this time.

Has Gerlach jumped on the anti-Iraq bandwagon? He better.

I agree.  Rendell and Casey did very well in the district and Dent is VERY far right on economic issues.  A Dem could have exposed him there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What idiot voted for Murtha?

[TeePee4Prez]

What idiot voted for Murtha?

BRTD, I put him on the poll for a reason.  IF the GOP has a good year, he could theoretically be vulnerable.  Same with PA 11 and 13.  The only rock solid Dem districts are PA 1, 2, and 14.

[Keystone Phil]

Let me address the Dent points first. The reason why he did poorly was because of the year. Originally, the Dems weren't going to run anyone. They then decided to have a write in campaign on primary day and got their guy on the ballot. The guy is a no name and was obviously not funded. If there was a more credible challenger, Dent's margin would have been smaller but he still would have held on. The man is personally very popular up there.

For 2008, the word is that the Dems are going after popular State Senator Lisa Boscolla to challenge Dent. I thought Dent would have a fairly easy time but I have been assured by someone that it would be close. If Boscolla doesn't run, Dent is fine.

As for the other seats, I see the 4th, 8th and 10th (almost definite according to everyone especially since it is a Presidential election year but I still worry that Carney could be a Holden) switching.

If Kanjorski retires, the 11th could flip but the Dems will benefit from the Presidential election turnout. If Murtha was to retire for whatever reason, look for the 12th to go. I'm holding off on saying that these two will switch hands at this point since both are likely to stay.

Sestak is staying as long as he wants. Sorry guys, Gerlach wins again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Murtha actually underperformed in 2006; well in the bits of the district that he'd only represented since 2002 anyway. A generic Democrat would probably have taken a higher % across the district than he did.

Not that there's any real danger of him losing.

[minionofmidas]

6, 10 and 15 (even 17) are certainly possible, but none is over 50% likely, so I'm not voting for either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sorry guys, Gerlach wins again.

I bet if you lived here you would've said the same thing about former State Rep. Ray Cox.

2002:
Republican    RAY COX    8865   50.06   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    DAVID BLY    8819   49.81   
Write-In    WRITE-IN (TOTAL)    23   0.13   

2004:
Republican    RAY COX    11433   51.24   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    DAVID BLY    10847   48.62   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    32   0.14

2006:
Republican    RAY COX    9233   49.80
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    DAVID BLY    9293   50.12
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    14   0.08

Murtha actually underperformed in 2006; well in the bits of the district that he'd only represented since 2002 anyway. A generic Democrat would probably have taken a higher % across the district than he did.

Not that there's any real danger of him losing.

Right. Has anyone actually looked at that district? It's a gerrymandered monstrosity designed to pick up all the Democratic areas in the region to make the rest of the districts more Republican. It's not flipping, with or without Murtha.

Murtha didn't even underperform that much anyway. He still did significantly better than Kerry. And his comments on the war aren't going to hurt him when the nation overwhelmingly agrees with him.

[Mr.Phips]

Let me address the Dent points first. The reason why he did poorly was because of the year. Originally, the Dems weren't going to run anyone. They then decided to have a write in campaign on primary day and got their guy on the ballot. The guy is a no name and was obviously not funded. If there was a more credible challenger, Dent's margin would have been smaller but he still would have held on. The man is personally very popular up there.

For 2008, the word is that the Dems are going after popular State Senator Lisa Boscolla to challenge Dent. I thought Dent would have a fairly easy time but I have been assured by someone that it would be close. If Boscolla doesn't run, Dent is fine.

As for the other seats, I see the 4th, 8th and 10th (almost definite according to everyone especially since it is a Presidential election year but I still worry that Carney could be a Holden) switching.

If Kanjorski retires, the 11th could flip but the Dems will benefit from the Presidential election turnout. If Murtha was to retire for whatever reason, look for the 12th to go. I'm holding off on saying that these two will switch hands at this point since both are likely to stay.

Sestak is staying as long as he wants. Sorry guys, Gerlach wins again.

You see the 8th switching?  You do realize that even John Kerry won this district, right?  Murphy will have little trouble here.  The 4th is also a traditionally Democratic district, Hart was the only Republican ever to represent the district.

[socaldem]

What about the 18th?  The other Murphy.  He got a free ride in '06 and I suspect Dems will have a real opponent next time.  If Melissa Hart can be knocked off, there is no reason for Murphy, a weaker incumbent in a similar district, to still be around.

I'm also somewhat worried about Chris Carney in PA-10.  I expect Gerlach may face another close race. 

[Mr.Phips]

6 and 10

That actually sounds about right.

[Galactic Overlord]

Sestak is staying as long as he wants.

The old Delaware Party GOP machine is kaput, huh? That district used to be heavily Republican.

[bullmoose88]

Sestak is staying as long as he wants.

The old Delaware Party GOP machine is kaput, huh? That district used to be heavily Republican.

Used to. That machine, and some of the township GOPs (Springfield)...made plenty of enemies.

[Keystone Phil]

It's not flipping, with or without Murtha.

Thanks, hack.

Let me address the Dent points first. The reason why he did poorly was because of the year. Originally, the Dems weren't going to run anyone. They then decided to have a write in campaign on primary day and got their guy on the ballot. The guy is a no name and was obviously not funded. If there was a more credible challenger, Dent's margin would have been smaller but he still would have held on. The man is personally very popular up there.

For 2008, the word is that the Dems are going after popular State Senator Lisa Boscolla to challenge Dent. I thought Dent would have a fairly easy time but I have been assured by someone that it would be close. If Boscolla doesn't run, Dent is fine.

As for the other seats, I see the 4th, 8th and 10th (almost definite according to everyone especially since it is a Presidential election year but I still worry that Carney could be a Holden) switching.

If Kanjorski retires, the 11th could flip but the Dems will benefit from the Presidential election turnout. If Murtha was to retire for whatever reason, look for the 12th to go. I'm holding off on saying that these two will switch hands at this point since both are likely to stay.

Sestak is staying as long as he wants. Sorry guys, Gerlach wins again.

You see the 8th switching?  You do realize that even John Kerry won this district, right?  Murphy will have little trouble here.  The 4th is also a traditionally Democratic district, Hart was the only Republican ever to represent the district.

So because Kerry won the swing district, it is staying Dem? No. It switched this past year because of a bad year for the GOP. Fitz was very well liked but he got swept up in the tide. He's coming back and he'll win. To say that Murphy has little trouble in the 8th is a sign of someone who doesn't know much about the district.

Hart was the only Republican to represent the 4th and they liked her. She'll know to campaign her ass off in 2008 after this upset.

What about the 18th?  The other Murphy.  He got a free ride in '06 and I suspect Dems will have a real opponent next time.  If Melissa Hart can be knocked off, there is no reason for Murphy, a weaker incumbent in a similar district, to still be around.

I'm also somewhat worried about Chris Carney in PA-10.  I expect Gerlach may face another close race. 

Murphy has a lot of problems and it could quite possibly be taken out in a primary. The FBI was actually investigating him for a bit.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not flipping, with or without Murtha.

Thanks, hack.

OK, so I'm a hack for thinking for thinking a 30+ year incumbent is safe, and that a district gerrymandered to take in all the Democratic parts of a region is likely to stay Democratic?

[Keystone Phil]

It's not flipping, with or without Murtha.

Thanks, hack.

OK, so I'm a hack for thinking for thinking a 30+ year incumbent is safe, and that a district gerrymandered to take in all the Democratic parts of a region is likely to stay Democratic?

You're a hack for the guarentee that it will stay Dem without Murtha.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's drawn to be a Democratic district. This is not the old PA-12.

Hell, look at this way, the GOP currently holds a whopping 7 seats won by Kerry, and these are all traditionally Republican districts that just recently swung to the Democrats. Murtha's district is not like that at all.

[Keystone Phil]

It's drawn to be a Democratic district. This is not the old PA-12.

I know which PA 12 it is. It is the same PA 12 that analysts across PA say could switch when Murtha leaves with a good GOP candidate (Irey).

You choose to be a hack in regards to everything so I'm not going to waste my time explaining why a Kerry win in a district doesn't mean an automatic Dem win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is Al a hack then?

You choose to be a hack in regards to everything so I'm not going to waste my time explaining why a Kerry win in a district doesn't mean an automatic Dem win.

Perhaps you should reread my post:

It's drawn to be a Democratic district. This is not the old PA-12.

Hell, look at this way, the GOP currently holds a whopping 7 seats won by Kerry, and these are all traditionally Republican districts that just recently swung to the Democrats. Murtha's district is not like that at all.

This district is nothing like NY-25 or WA-08.