My thoughts on Senate 2008

[Reaganfan]

I think there are four major seats to watch:

Louisiana (Landrieu)
Minnesota (Coleman)
South Dakota (Unknown)
Colorado (Open race)

Right now, I see Coleman and Udall winning. Landrieu and the South Dakota race are up in the air, of course, whether or not Johnson runs.

I see the Senate as 50-50 or 51-49 GOP come 2009.

[Deano963]

I see the Senate as 50-50 or 51-49 GOP come 2009.

I wonder, what was your prediction for the Jan. '07 Senate balance of power in Jan. '05?

[JSojourner]

I think there are four major seats to watch:

Louisiana (Landrieu)
Minnesota (Coleman)
South Dakota (Unknown)
Colorado (Open race)

Right now, I see Coleman and Udall winning. Landrieu and the South Dakota race are up in the air, of course, whether or not Johnson runs.

I see the Senate as 50-50 or 51-49 GOP come 2009.

Naso,

Spot-on, man.  I completely concur.  Coleman doesn't seem vulnerable enough to me whereas Landireu and whoever runs in S.D. should be.  Stephanie Herseth has the best shot, but Rounds will be formidable.

[Mr.Phips]

If Johnson runs again, I think that he will win. 

I think Udall wins Colorado and both Coleman and Sununu lose their seats.

Landrieu is up in the air.

[InsideTheBeltway]

I would add NH to your list as well-a conservative Republican with an approval rating less than 50 in a Kerry state is in trouble, even if he only has a second-tier challenger.

Generally agree with you on the others, although if Jindal wins by 20-25 points it's tough to see Landrieu winning.

[Adlai Stevenson]

If Johnson runs again, I think that he will win. 

I think Udall wins Colorado and both Coleman and Sununu lose their seats.

Landrieu is up in the air.

[Deano963]

I think there are four major seats to watch:

Louisiana (Landrieu)
Minnesota (Coleman)
South Dakota (Unknown)
Colorado (Open race)

Right now, I see Coleman and Udall winning. Landrieu and the South Dakota race are up in the air, of course, whether or not Johnson runs.

I see the Senate as 50-50 or 51-49 GOP come 2009.

Naso,

Spot-on, man.  I completely concur.  Coleman doesn't seem vulnerable enough to me whereas Landireu and whoever runs in S.D. should be.  Stephanie Herseth has the best shot, but Rounds will be formidable.

Johnson just hired a campaign manager for his '08 reelection campaign about a week ago and he has already authorized Max Baucus to raise $$$ for his camapign on his behalf. Johnson is running. That seat is nowhere near competitive unless Rounds runs, and even then it probably isn't.

[TheresNoMoney]

Generally agree with you on the others, although if Jindal wins by 20-25 points it's tough to see Landrieu winning.

Good things those elections are in two different years (2007 and 2008)!

[CPT MikeyMike]

Way way to early to predict.

Look at Allen. I don't think anyone thought Webb would defeat Allen until late summer '06 and I don't think anyone predicted Lamont would defeat Lieberman in the CT Democratic primary.

[cp]

There's a lot going for the Democrats in 2008 strategically speaking. They have fewer seats to defend (most of which are safe), they have an unpopular outgoing administration in the White House, and more likelihood of energizing the base with their own ticket than the Republicans do.

I think the Democrats will gain ground in the Senate. 2-4 seats depending on how the national tide is.

[Verily]

I think there are four major seats to watch:

Louisiana (Landrieu)
Minnesota (Coleman)
South Dakota (Unknown)
Colorado (Open race)

Right now, I see Coleman and Udall winning. Landrieu and the South Dakota race are up in the air, of course, whether or not Johnson runs.

I see the Senate as 50-50 or 51-49 GOP come 2009.

Naso,

Spot-on, man.  I completely concur.  Coleman doesn't seem vulnerable enough to me whereas Landireu and whoever runs in S.D. should be.  Stephanie Herseth has the best shot, but Rounds will be formidable.

I'm pretty sure Rounds is still making no moves at all towards running. Landrieu's approvals have been back in the green for about half a year now, and I have difficulty seeing her being more vulnerable than Coleman or Sununu since the GOP has no obvious candidate (assuming Jindal wins the governorship; if he loses, there's no way he'd beat Landrieu anyway).

[InsideTheBeltway]

Generally agree with you on the others, although if Jindal wins by 20-25 points it's tough to see Landrieu winning.

Good things those elections are in two different years (2007 and 2008)!

I knew that-I think it would just be an indication of where the state is post-Katrina.  If the voters are willing to "blame" Blanco to that extent, I have a hard time believing Landrieu will get no blame at all.  Not unlike what happened to Mike DeWine in Ohio last year.

[Gabu]

I think there are four major seats to watch:

Louisiana (Landrieu)
Minnesota (Coleman)
South Dakota (Unknown)
Colorado (Open race)

Right now, I see Coleman and Udall winning. Landrieu and the South Dakota race are up in the air, of course, whether or not Johnson runs.

I see the Senate as 50-50 or 51-49 GOP come 2009.

There's one question I have about this.  You say that Coleman and Udall will both win.  Coleman is the incumbent, so his winning would not change the composition of the Senate.  Udall is a Democrat winning in an open Republican seat, so his winning would change the current composition to 52-48 D (it is currently 51-49).

Then you list two other seats to watch.  Even if we pull a Naso and assume that the Republican will, in the end, win in a close race in both of them, that only brings the composition to 50-50... where does the extra GOP gain come from?

[Reaganfan]

I think there are four major seats to watch:

Louisiana (Landrieu)
Minnesota (Coleman)
South Dakota (Unknown)
Colorado (Open race)

Right now, I see Coleman and Udall winning. Landrieu and the South Dakota race are up in the air, of course, whether or not Johnson runs.

I see the Senate as 50-50 or 51-49 GOP come 2009.

There's one question I have about this.  You say that Coleman and Udall will both win.  Coleman is the incumbent, so his winning would not change the composition of the Senate.  Udall is a Democrat winning in an open Republican seat, so his winning would change the current composition to 52-48 D (it is currently 51-49).

Then you list two other seats to watch.  Even if we pull a Naso and assume that the Republican will, in the end, win in a close race in both of them, that only brings the composition to 50-50... where does the extra GOP gain come from?

Current Senate:
51
49

Coleman wins:
51
49

Udall wins:
52
48

Landrieu loses:
51
49

SD: Rounds wins
50
50

[Gabu]

Current Senate:
51
49

Coleman wins:
51
49

Udall wins:
52
48

Landrieu loses:
51
49

SD: Rounds wins
50
50

You said "or 51-49".

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think that its obvious New Hampshire, Minnesota and Louisiana will all be competetive.  Personally, I think the Democrats could successfully take down both Sununu in New Hampshire and Coleman in Minnesota; Gordon Smith in Oregon might be harder.  It might be presumptuous, but I am already considering Colorado a pickup.  The GOP do not have an obvious candidate in Louisiana; nevertheless in a Presidential year and with New Orleans considerably less stronger in terms of voting I think any respectable Republican opponent Landrieu has will make it close.  I think Charles Boustany may run; Jim McCrery and Richard Baker have both ruled it out.  There are of course the unresolved questions of Virginia, Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Maine.  Anyway, I think the Senate balance could be something like 54/5 D to 46/5 R.