My own American electoral series
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  My own American electoral series
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Author Topic: My own American electoral series  (Read 4542 times)
Soaring Eagle
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« Reply #25 on: February 08, 2007, 10:03:55 PM »

Who is running against Obama in the IL Senate race?
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« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2007, 03:35:44 AM »

Next update tonight. Sorry for the delay and inactivity, I was busy leaving and bashing a forum of wusses.
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« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2007, 11:58:42 AM »

The War in Iraq is going better and better, and it's helping the Bush campaign. On October 1, 2004, Saddam Hussein, former Iraqi President, was captured in an abandoned house in his home town of Tikrit. Bush soared in the polls.

General Election Polls
October 3, 2004
Bush 54%
Clark 45%
Nader 1%

The electoral map started to look good for the Republicans once more



Dem Total: 248
GOP Total: 290
Tossup: 0

PS: Saddam Hussein was captured later in this timeline on purpose. Its not because I forgot the date.

Next update: It looks safe for Bush... but then comes the surprise...
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« Reply #28 on: February 15, 2007, 01:23:08 AM »

While the capture of Saddam Hussein boosted Bush, it also led to an explosion of violence and insurgency in Fallujah, Baghdad, Al-Anbar Province, and other cities. Loyal Baathists launched a massive insurgency, while Al Qaeda in Iraq stepped up operations. On October 5, 2004, over 240 American and Coalition troops died in a car bomb in Baghdad.

On October 8, 2004, the second debate was held between Clark and Bush. Bush defended his Iraq war platform saying "We need to go through challenges to win peace and build democracy". Clark, on the other hand called for an immediate withdrawal and pre-occupation with local issues. Clark also attacked the Patriot Act. A post-debate poll showed a clear victory for Clark with 62% of Americans thinking Clark had won the debate.

Wes Clark campaigned heavily in the South, trying to make the Democrats win the south once more. He was able to take the lead in Arkansas with a 2-point advance on Bush.

Clark's debate victory and the Iraq violence helped him regain the lead.

General Election Polls
October 8, 2004
Clark 52%
Bush 47%
Nader 1%



Next update: The last debate, more campaigning, and a look at polls.
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« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2007, 07:20:10 AM »

On October 13, 2004, the last debate was held between Bush and Clark. Clark defended a social security program while Bush tried to focus his answers on terrorism, homeland security. Clark accused Bush of "overexploiting one or two issues".

On November 1, 2004, the day before the election, it was very close- but no candidate had over 50% in any poll.

General Election Poll
SurveyUSA: 11/01/04
Bush 49%
Clark 48%
Nader 2%
Other 1%

General Election Poll
Rasmussen: 11/01/04
Bush 48%
Clark: 48%
Nader 3%
Other 1%

General Election Poll
Angus-Reid: 11/01/04
Clark 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 3%

In the next hour, I will begin posting election night results.
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« Reply #30 on: February 16, 2007, 08:12:20 AM »

It's 7:00PM and we have 58 electoral votes to give out.



This gives Bush 55EV, and 3EV for Clark- however, all of these results were expected.

More to come.
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« Reply #31 on: February 16, 2007, 08:27:32 AM »

We have more results, it's now 7:30EST.

We have a surprise victory in Edward's home state of North Carolina, a surprising victory, perhaps showing the Democratic comeback in the South?



Bush: 80, Clark: 18, Undecided/Tossup/Not Called: 440
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« Reply #32 on: February 16, 2007, 08:48:21 AM »

It's 8:30PMEST and we have 177 EV to distribute.


Clark: 135, Bush: 113, Undecided/Tossup/Not Called: 290

So, we have some surprises. Clark won in Missouri, a bellwether state, that could mean he could win the election. He also won a narrow victory in his home state, Arkansas. Florida is too close to call- a repeat of 2000? Clark now has a solid lead in the electoral college over Bush, but many traditionally Republican states, and swing states, have yet to be called.
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« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2007, 10:31:41 AM »

It is now 9:00PM EST and we have 156 more EVs to give out to the candidates.



Bush: 197 , Clark: 197 , Undecided/Tossup/Not Called: 144

Can you believe it? A 197-197 tie in the electoral vote? Wisconsin is still too close to call, and so is Florida. Wisconsin would give either side a 10EV boost, while Florida would give either side a 27EV boost. Bush narrowly won New Mexico, although polls predicted Clark would win it.

Wisconsin Exit Polls
Bush 49.8%
Clark 49.7%
Other 0.5%

Florida Exit Polls
Clark 50.1%
Bush 49.8%
Other 0.1%

Let's look at the results that we'll have soon. In an hour, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah will be called. Bush should win Montana, Nevada, and Utah, and Iowa could go both ways. In two hours, California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington will be called. Bush should win Idaho, and North Dakota, and Clark should win California's 55EV, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. Then at 1:00AM, Alaska, who should go solidly to Bush, comes in.
 
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« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2007, 10:52:54 AM »

We have 20EVs to give out, all of them to Bush. Except for Iowa, this is no surprise.



Bush: 217, Clark: 197, Undecided/Tossup/Not Called: 124


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« Reply #35 on: February 17, 2007, 11:45:27 AM »

Ladies and Gentlemen, the 44th President of the United States of America



[size=15]Wesley K. Clark[/size][/color]



Clark has won with 301 electoral votes against 237 for Bush. A review of the Senate and House elections will be posted tommorow.
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« Reply #36 on: February 18, 2007, 10:44:36 PM »

comments?
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Undisguised Sockpuppet
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« Reply #37 on: February 19, 2007, 12:36:02 AM »

ANY dem besides maybe hillary would have gotten more support than john the vulcan flipflopper kerry
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #38 on: February 21, 2007, 07:45:40 AM »

That was awsome! Sorry I didn't see it earlier, it must have gotten tucked away.
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« Reply #39 on: March 01, 2007, 06:33:34 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2007, 08:21:03 AM by McGovern '72 (Hashemite) »

A look at the Senate races. Clark's campaign also boosted support for the Democrats who managed to win quite a lot. The House is now 220-215.

Senate Races 2004



However, the Republicans retain the Senate 50-49-1.

The New Leadership
President: Wesley K. Clark (D)
Vice President: John Edwards (D)
President pro tempore of the Senate: Ted Stevens (R)
Speaker of the House: Nancy Pelosi (D)
Majority Leader: Steny Hoyer (D)
Minority Leader: John Boehner (R)
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True Democrat
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« Reply #40 on: March 01, 2007, 07:02:10 AM »

According to your map, the Senate would now be 50-50 (with the Democratic VP breaking the tie).

In real life, the Senate was 55-44-1 after this election.  But in your timeline, the Democrats picked up five extra seats:

South Dakota
Louisiana
Florida
North Carolina
Kentucky

This makes it 50-50 (or 50-49-1)
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« Reply #41 on: March 01, 2007, 08:30:46 AM »

Fixed- Thank you.
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« Reply #42 on: March 01, 2007, 10:55:47 AM »

Term I: 2005-2006

As promised through his election program, Wesley Clark announces his four-step plan to get the United States out of Iraq through drastically cutting troop size and transforming remaining American soldiers in Iraq into a group of advisors to the Iraqi armed forces and government. He is able to get Congressional support and by March 2005, the first step is in action. Wes Clark repeals President Bush's tax giveaways for the wealthy and uses the money to create jobs. One of his most important actions is pushing for a review of the PATRIOT Act without entirely repealing it, but allowing for less interference by the government. The Republicans attack this measure. He chooses to focus 2006 on the family and healthcare, and in early 2006 he pressures Congress to pass the Healthcare Bill- providing affordable health services, as well as introducing a tax credit to families to give all Americans access to healthcare. However, some of these measures fail, and decreases his popularity. The Republicans focus on these issues in the run-up to the 2006 mid-term elections. However, Wes Clark continues work on his healthcare proposal to make it successful. In July 2006, Congress accepts the Kyoto Protocol by a whisker, making it one of the most important actions of the Clark presidency. His approval increases drastically, and the Democrats now have become also a "green party".

Next: 2006 Mid-Terms.
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« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2007, 08:24:25 AM »

The 2006 mid-terms were shaping up to be a very tight race between the Democrats and Republicans. The Republicans sought to end the Senate deadlock by capturing a larger majority, focusing on administration's failure. The Democrats sought to win the Senate.

To the general surprise, the Democrats won control of the Senate, winning surprise wins in Montana, Nevada, Virginia, and Tennessee.

The Senate is (?) 56-43-1 (Lieberman won the CT Dem nomination)
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