My own American electoral series

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It seems to be popular right now of doing our own electoral series. I'll give it a try. Pardon a foreigner's ignorance.

It's 2004: Democrats in the race include Howard Dean, Wesley Clark, John Edwards, John Kerry, Joe Lieberman
Republicans: Bush, incumbent.

Iowa Primary Polls (DEM)
January 10, 2004
Kerry 33%
Clark 31%
Dean 21%
Edwards 13%
Lieberman 2%

Iowa Primary Polls (DEM)
January 17, 2004
Kerry 32%
Clark 32%
Edwards 20%
Dean 15%
Lieberman 1%

General Election Poll
January 17, 2004
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%
Nader 6%

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Who will win the nail-bitting Iowa primary?

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Iowa Primary Results (DEM)
January 19, 2004
Clark 32.1% [X]
Kerry 31.9%
Dean 19.0%
Edwards 14.9%
Lieberman 2.1%

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New Hampshire Primary Polls
January 25, 2004
Kerry 45%
Dean 32%
Clark 16%
Lieberman 3%
Edwards 2%

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Constitution Party- Alan Keyes has announced he will run for the Constitution Party nomination
Green Party- Nader will seek the nomination for a third time, against David Cobb. Kucinich has also announced he will consider joining the Green campaign if Nader runs.


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Next update: More primary results in a large update and more third party candidates?

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NOTE: I'm busy right now, I'll have large update tonight (Wednesday morning in US)

New Hampshire Primary Results (DEM)
January 27, 2004
Kerry 42%
Dean 30%
Clark 18%
Edwards 9%
Lieberman 1%

General Election Polls
January 28, 2004
Bush 48%
Kerry 46%
Nader 4%
Keyes 2%
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Bush 49%
Clark 45%
Nader 4%
Keyes 2%

Lieberman has announced he will drop out if he does not improve his score in any of the February 3 primaries in any of the 7 states. Nader is the favored Green candidate, and Dennis Kucinich announces he will join Nader if the Greens nominate Nader. Michael Peroutka has also announced that he would be pleased to endorse Alan Keyes for the CP nomination.

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Next update: The primary results of Mini-Tuesday (Feb. 3, 2004) for the Democrats and an update from the Republican and third party campaigns.

PS: Thanks for the comments

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The Mini-Tuesday Primaries- February 3, 2004

Kerry wins Arizona with 36%

Kerry wins Delaware with 53%

Kerry wins Missouri with 33%

Clark wins New Mexico with 31.1%

Kerry wins North Dakota with 39%

Clark wins Oklahoma with 59%

Clark wins South Carolina with 25%

Lieberman announces he will drop out of the Democratic primatries but does not rule out running as an independent.

John Edwards announces that if he does not win in Michigan or Washington, he will drop out of the race and endorse Kerry or Clark. The race is being played between Kerry and Clark, and to a lesser level, Howard Dean.

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Primaries in Michigan and Washington:

Kerry wins Michigan with 49%

Kerry wins Washington with 48%

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The situation in the Clark campaign is chaotic- Clark needs to win a primary before Kerry scores other victories. Polls in Maine go for Kerry, but Clark support in Tennessee and Virginia is high.

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Next update: The primaries continue on the Dem side, and third party campaigns are gaining in the polls.

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The next update will be tommorow. Please comment on the work thus far!

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Maine Primary Polls (DEM)
February 7, 2004
Kerry 46%
Dean 32%
Clark 21%
Edwards (write-in) 1%

On February 7, Edwards officialy announces that he will endorse Wesley Clark for the nomination. Dean announces that if he does not win any primary, he will drop out and endorse Kerry.

Maine Primary Results (DEM)
February 8, 2004
Kerry 45%
Dean 31%
Clark 24%

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General Election Polls
February 9, 2004
Bush 47%
Kerry 46%
Nader 5%
Keyes 2%
--
Bush 46%
Clark 44%
Nader 7%
Keyes 3%

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Primaries Updates

Clark wins Virginia with 49%

Clark win Tennessee with 56%

Kerry wins Nevada with 63%

Kerry wins Wisconsin with 41%

Clark wins a surprise win in Hawaii with 52%

Clark wins Idaho with 47%

Clark wins Utah with 55%

After scoring low scores in many states, Howard Dean officialy drops out and endorses John Kerry. It's now a race to the nomination between the General and the Senator. Make your choices. Kerry or Clark?

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Next update: The Super-Tuesday primaries

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It's March 2, 2004, Super Tuesday. 10 state primaries are being held. Out of those, 4 look like they'll go for Clark, and 6 for Kerry, especially CT, RI, MA, and VT, all in Kerry's home New England.

The results are still being counted.

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Primary Results- March 2, 2004

Clark wins California with 56%

Kerry wins Connecticut with 54%

Clark wins Georgia with 57%

Kerry wins Maryland with 49%

Kerry wins Massachusetts with 89%

Kerry wins Minnesota with 54%

Clark wins New York with 49%

Clark wins Ohio with 52%

Kerry wins Rhode Island with 59%

Kerry wins Vermont with 72%

Even with these victories, Kerry is still in a second place, and more Southern primaries- safe ground for Arkansas native Wesley Clark, are around the corner on March 9, 2004. Kerry still has no intention of allowing Clark to win the Democratic nomination and is trying a last-minute campaign in the Southern states.

Updated Primaries Map (Pardon me on messing up my coloring on previous ones, my mistake, this one is fixed)

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Next update: The nomination is almost secured... but who'll have it?

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4 Southern states are holding their primaries today, March 9. Kerry is leading 1, Clark is leading 3.

Kerry wins Florida with 53%

Clark wins Louisiana with 59%

Clark wins Mississippi with 84%

Clark wins Texas with 63%

Clark is doing well, and Kerry is having a hard time finding support in the South. However, primaries are around the corner in Illinois and Kansas, two states that are leaning with Senator Kerry.

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March 13-16 Primaries

Kerry wins Kansas with 72%

Kerry wins Illinois with 61%

March 20 Primaries

Kerry wins Alaska with 51%

Kerry wins Wyoming with 56%

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General Election Polls
March 20, 2004
Bush 48%
Kerry 47%
Nader 3%
Keyes 2%
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Clark 49%
Bush 46%
Nader 3%
Keyes 2%

Next update: A quick look at the April, May, and June primary results before getting on with the GENERAL CAMPAIGN!

(I will post 2-3 updates a day from now on)

Comments?

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I am short on time and will not be able to post updates until tommorow. Sorry for the inconvenience or to my avid readers. Atleast 2 updates tommorow to compensate.

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The Final Primaries-April, May, June 2004

Kerry wins Colorado with 62%

Clark wins North Carolina with 64%

Kerry wins Pennsylvania with 71%

Clark wins Indiana with 73%

Kerry wins Nebraska with 61%

Clark wins West Virginia with 73%

Clark wins Arkansas (native state) with 94%

Kerry wins Kentucky with 51%

Clark wins Oregon with 67%

Clark wins Alabama with 59%

Clark wins South Dakota with 51%

Clark wins Montana with 60%

Clark wins New Jersey with 50.1%

And there you have it. On June 9, 2004, the day after the 2 last primaries, Kerry dropped out and endorsed Clark, he was followed by Al Sharpton, John Edwards, and Howard Dean.

A look at the General Election

General Election Polls
June 10, 2004
Bush 48%
Clark 47%
Nader 3%
Keyes 2%

Electoral Vote Predictions as of 06/10/2004
SOLID RED: Dem solid
LIGHT RED: Lean Dem
GRAY: Tossup/Undecided/Swing
LIGHT BLUE: Lean GOP
SOLID BLUE: GOP solid

Dem Total: 224
GOP Total: 227
Tossup: 87

The race is extremely tight right now, Clark has support, but very few solid states- unlike the Republicans with many secured states.

For Vice President?
Clark now has to choose a Vice President. A southerner himself, perhaps he'll do like other southerners and balance it out with a northerner.
-John Edwards
-John Kerry
-Dennis Kucinich
-Al Sharpton
-Tom Vilsack
-Dick Durbin

Next update: The R and D Conventions, the third party chooses its candidates, and the race is in the final sprint.

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Why is Illinois a tossup?

Great work so far.

Well, so early in the campaign many Illinois voters are undecided and are not convinced by either side.

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General Election Polls
June 16, 2004
Clark 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 2%
Keyes 1%

Electoral Vote Predictions as of 06/10/2004
SOLID RED: Dem solid
LIGHT RED: Lean Dem
GRAY: Tossup/Undecided/Swing
LIGHT BLUE: Lean GOP
SOLID BLUE: GOP solid

Dem Total: 252
GOP Total: 222
Tossup: 64

Election Night Prediction

Dem Total: 269
GOP Total: 269

A perfect 269-269 tie in the Electoral college based on current state polls. However, many states are still very close for both sides and changes are expected.

Next update: The Democratic ticket is revealed, the conventions, some third party surprises and more! All coming very soon.

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Vice President...

John Edwards

Clark explains he hopes his southern ticket will help the Democrats conquer the south once more. However, he comes under fire for failing to balance the ticket with a northerner.

The Democratic Ticket

 

The Republican Ticket

 

The Green Ticket
Vice Presidential candidate unknown


The Constitution Ticket
Vice Presidential candidate unknown

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The Convention Period

Green National Convention[/b]
On June 23, 2004 the Green National Convention convenes in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Ralph Nader is seen as the top contender for the party's nomination. Dennis Kucinich, Democrat representative from Ohio announces on June 20, 2004 he will not "turn to the Greens". On June 25, 2004 Ralph Nader wins the nomination on the first ballot. David Cobb will be his running mate.

Constitution National Convention[/b]
Also on June 23, 2004 the Constitution Party convenes in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. Republican Alan Keyes is the top contender, although Michael Peroutka is still opposed to a Keyes ticket. On June 27, 2004, Alan Keyes is defeated on the third ballot by Michael Peroutka. However, Peroutka nominates Keyes as his running mate.

Democratic National Convention
On July 26, 2004 the Democrats convene in Boston for the National Convention. After winning a narrow win in primaries, General Wesley Clark is nominated for President. John Edwards is to be his running mate. The convention is marked by a stirring Edwards speech on the "two Americas" as well as a keynote speech by Illinois Senate-hopeful Barack Obama.

Republican National Convention
On August 30, 2004 the Republican National Convention convenes in New York City. Inucmbent President George W. Bush and Vice President Richard "Dick" Cheney are nominated without opposition.

General Election Polls
September 2, 2004
Clark 51%
Bush 48%
Nader 1%

Next update: Coming soon: Another general look at election night predictions and polls

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General Election Polls
September 15, 2004
Clark 50%
Bush 49%
Nader 1%

Electoral Vote Predictions as of 09/15/2004
SOLID RED: Dem solid
LIGHT RED: Lean Dem
GRAY: Tossup/Undecided/Swing
LIGHT BLUE: Lean GOP
SOLID BLUE: GOP solid

Dem Total: 269
GOP Total: 242
Tossup: 27

Election Night Prediction

Dem Total: 269
GOP Total: 269

This election is a real nail-bitter, as of now, no one could win the 270 required electoral vote. Both sides are one short of the 270 electoral votes.

Next update: The Campaign. A few more updates until election night

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Next update tonight. Sorry for the delay and inactivity, I was busy leaving and bashing a forum of wusses.

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The War in Iraq is going better and better, and it's helping the Bush campaign. On October 1, 2004, Saddam Hussein, former Iraqi President, was captured in an abandoned house in his home town of Tikrit. Bush soared in the polls.

General Election Polls
October 3, 2004
Bush 54%
Clark 45%
Nader 1%

The electoral map started to look good for the Republicans once more

Dem Total: 248
GOP Total: 290
Tossup: 0

PS: Saddam Hussein was captured later in this timeline on purpose. Its not because I forgot the date.

Next update: It looks safe for Bush... but then comes the surprise...

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While the capture of Saddam Hussein boosted Bush, it also led to an explosion of violence and insurgency in Fallujah, Baghdad, Al-Anbar Province, and other cities. Loyal Baathists launched a massive insurgency, while Al Qaeda in Iraq stepped up operations. On October 5, 2004, over 240 American and Coalition troops died in a car bomb in Baghdad.

On October 8, 2004, the second debate was held between Clark and Bush. Bush defended his Iraq war platform saying "We need to go through challenges to win peace and build democracy". Clark, on the other hand called for an immediate withdrawal and pre-occupation with local issues. Clark also attacked the Patriot Act. A post-debate poll showed a clear victory for Clark with 62% of Americans thinking Clark had won the debate.

Wes Clark campaigned heavily in the South, trying to make the Democrats win the south once more. He was able to take the lead in Arkansas with a 2-point advance on Bush.

Clark's debate victory and the Iraq violence helped him regain the lead.

General Election Polls
October 8, 2004
Clark 52%
Bush 47%
Nader 1%

Next update: The last debate, more campaigning, and a look at polls.

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On October 13, 2004, the last debate was held between Bush and Clark. Clark defended a social security program while Bush tried to focus his answers on terrorism, homeland security. Clark accused Bush of "overexploiting one or two issues".

On November 1, 2004, the day before the election, it was very close- but no candidate had over 50% in any poll.

General Election Poll
SurveyUSA: 11/01/04
Bush 49%
Clark 48%
Nader 2%
Other 1%

General Election Poll
Rasmussen: 11/01/04
Bush 48%
Clark: 48%
Nader 3%
Other 1%

General Election Poll
Angus-Reid: 11/01/04
Clark 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 3%

In the next hour, I will begin posting election night results.

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It's 7:00PM and we have 58 electoral votes to give out.

This gives Bush 55EV, and 3EV for Clark- however, all of these results were expected.

More to come.

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We have more results, it's now 7:30EST.

We have a surprise victory in Edward's home state of North Carolina, a surprising victory, perhaps showing the Democratic comeback in the South?

Bush: 80, Clark: 18, Undecided/Tossup/Not Called: 440

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It's 8:30PMEST and we have 177 EV to distribute.

Clark: 135, Bush: 113, Undecided/Tossup/Not Called: 290

So, we have some surprises. Clark won in Missouri, a bellwether state, that could mean he could win the election. He also won a narrow victory in his home state, Arkansas. Florida is too close to call- a repeat of 2000? Clark now has a solid lead in the electoral college over Bush, but many traditionally Republican states, and swing states, have yet to be called.

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It is now 9:00PM EST and we have 156 more EVs to give out to the candidates.

Bush: 197 , Clark: 197 , Undecided/Tossup/Not Called: 144

Can you believe it? A 197-197 tie in the electoral vote? Wisconsin is still too close to call, and so is Florida. Wisconsin would give either side a 10EV boost, while Florida would give either side a 27EV boost. Bush narrowly won New Mexico, although polls predicted Clark would win it.

Wisconsin Exit Polls
Bush 49.8%
Clark 49.7%
Other 0.5%

Florida Exit Polls
Clark 50.1%
Bush 49.8%
Other 0.1%

Let's look at the results that we'll have soon. In an hour, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah will be called. Bush should win Montana, Nevada, and Utah, and Iowa could go both ways. In two hours, California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington will be called. Bush should win Idaho, and North Dakota, and Clark should win California's 55EV, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. Then at 1:00AM, Alaska, who should go solidly to Bush, comes in.
 

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We have 20EVs to give out, all of them to Bush. Except for Iowa, this is no surprise.

Bush: 217, Clark: 197, Undecided/Tossup/Not Called: 124