Rasmussen: Giuliani ahead in GOP Primary, beats Clinton

[Tender Branson]

Survey of 579 Likely Republican Primary Voters

January 22-25, 2007
 
Rudy Giuliani  29%
John McCain  19%
Newt Gingrich  16%
Mitt Romney  8%
Sam Brownback  3%
Chuck Hagel  1%
Mike Huckabee  1% 

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) has opened a double digit lead over over Senator John McCain (R) in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Giuliani now earns 29% of the vote, little changed from 30% a week ago and 28% two weeks ago. McCain (R) is now supported by 19% of Likely GOP Primary voters, down from 22% a week ago.

While McCain has slipped a bit, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has gained a few points and is now within three percentage points of McCain. Among Very Conservative voters, Gingrich is currently the top choice.

Former Massachusetts Mitt Romney earns support from 8%. Senator Sam Brownback attracts 3%. Former Governor Mike Huckabee and Senator Chuck Hagel are supported by 1%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate while 19% are not sure.

...

National Poll: Giuliani 49% Clinton 43%

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) leads New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) 49% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 poll. Those results are similar to the 47% to 43% edge Giuliani enjoyed over Clinton a month ago.

However, Clinton has gained ground against Arizona Senator John McCain (R). The latest numbers on that race show a pure toss-up, McCain 45% Clinton 44%. In December, McCain enjoyed a 4-point lead over the former First Lady. McCain has also lost ground over the past month to Senator Barack Obama (D) and former Senator John Edwards (D). Both of those Democrats lead McCain at this time. Even the relatively unknown Governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson (D) is within four points of McCain.

Clinton earns only 35% of the male vote against both McCain and Giuliani. Among female voters, she leads both Republicans. However, Giuliani is far more competitive than McCain among women. Giuliani attracts 87% of Republican voters compared to only 74% for McCain.

...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Republican%20Primary/GOPNomination01302007.htm

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Presidential%20Match-Ups/Giulianivs.Clinton20070130.htm

[bullmoose88]

McCain's fervent support of the troop increase will only hurt him unless something drastic changes.

[Reaganfan]

McCain's fervent support of the troop increase will only hurt him unless something drastic changes.

Actually, I think it might not. Honestly, what else is there to do? The status quo, or try to help the situation by adding more troops?

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI:  Among general election numbers, McCain does worse because of those dismal numbers among Republicans.

Of course then again, it's probably just MOE.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain's fervent support of the troop increase will only hurt him unless something drastic changes.

I'm not convinced that it's hurting him much in the GOP primary race.  The general election is a different story.  Yes, his support in this particular poll is low, but I think it's an outlier.  We haven't seen such low support for McCain in other polls.

This graph:

http://www.pollster.com/1TopRepslarge1.php

actually shows that, at least as of polls taken a week ago, McCain's GOP support was as strong as ever.  Other than this one poll by Rasmussen, have we seen McCain's GOP support trailing off at all since then?

[Reaganfan]

McCain's fervent support of the troop increase will only hurt him unless something drastic changes.

I'm not convinced that it's hurting him much in the GOP primary race.  The general election is a different story.  Yes, his support in this particular poll is low, but I think it's an outlier.  We haven't seen such low support for McCain in other polls.

This graph:

http://www.pollster.com/1TopRepslarge1.php

actually shows that, at least as of polls taken a week ago, McCain's GOP support was as strong as ever.  Other than this one poll by Rasmussen, have we seen McCain's GOP support trailing off at all since then?

It's doesn't appear to be that way.

[Eraserhead]

I would just like to note that (unlike Clinton) Obama and Edwards are both ahead of McCain in the general election now according to Rasmussen's polling.

[Verily]

McCain's fervent support of the troop increase will only hurt him unless something drastic changes.

Actually, I think it might not. Honestly, what else is there to do? The status quo, or try to help the situation by adding more troops?

LA Times/Blooomberg says withdrawing soon is the preference of the majority of Americans (and this is backed up by Newsweek):

Withdraw Right Away: 19%
Withdraw Within a Year: 46%
Stay However Long: 30%
Unsure: 5%

In other words, by far the most popular solution is to reduce troop numbers drastically over the next year and leave Iraq to Iran (which, frankly, is what's happening with us there anyway, just in slightly slower and bloodier motion).

This is the position advocated by pretty much every politician opposed to the escalation at this point; no one support the status quo since it's obviously not working.

McCain probably will not be hurt much by supporting the escalation in the primary; most Republicans support the escalation, and most who are opposed would support Giuliani over McCain (or any other Republican; they're Giuliani's 5-10% base) anyway.