Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 21, 2014, 06:57:52 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
| | | |-+  New Polls
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: New Polls  (Read 2641 times)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10149
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

View Profile
« on: July 04, 2004, 10:28:22 am »
Ignore

I don't know if you have these are not.. but these are new... more are coming tomorrow...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm

Overview of what the link says

Tennessee

Bush 49% Kerry 41%

Florida

Kerry 46% Bush 46%

Iowa

Kerry 49% Bush 41%

Arkansas

Bush 48% Kerry 43%

Michigan

Kerry 47% Bush 41%

Oklahoma

Bush 58% Kerry 34%

Maine

Kerry 54% Bush 35%

South Carolina

Bush 49% Kerry 39%

Minnesota

Kerry 48% Bush 43%

Alabama

Bush 57% Kerry 36%

New Jersey

Kerry 51% Bush 39%

Virginia

Bush 47% Kerry 45%

Pennsylvania

Bush 45% Kerry 44%

North Carolina

Bush 48% Kerry 44%

Oregon

Bush 46% Kerry 45%

Missouri

Bush 44% Kerry 43%

Georgia

Bush 51% Kerry 39%

Ohio

Bush 46% Kerry 44%

California

Kerry 49% Bush 41%

Texas

Bush 55% Kerry 38%

Illinois

Kerry 54% Bush 38%

New York

Kerry 57% Bush 34%

New Hampshire:

Kerry 47% Bush 45%

West Virginia:

Bush 46% Kerry 41%

Colorado:

Bush 49% Kerry 44%

Washington

Kerry 50% Bush 44%
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3698


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2004, 11:01:05 am »
Ignore


These are not new polls...they are the month long polls from May that Rasmussen put together as part of their daily robo-track.

But maybe we'll be seeing the June results next week.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26808


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2004, 12:40:05 pm »
Ignore

Those polls are interesting, even if they're not super-reliable...it looks reasonable to me as well. Most of it can be explained by different factors. The interesting thing is whether the Atlantic South, which most people agree has been trending Dem, will actually be a bit of a battleground as soon as this election? Since both Virginia and the Carolinas are looking a lot closer. I don't actually think they'll be winnable for Kerry in a close race this election, but maybe they will as soon as in the 2008 election. And that's a lot of EVs. California on the other hand seems to be heading the other way right now...as is thr rustbelt I suspect.
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31304
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2004, 10:04:24 pm »
Ignore

Everything on that list from Alabama down is over two months old.
Logged
muon2
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8542


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2004, 10:41:22 pm »
Ignore

The list is mostly from May1-31 based on reanalyzing the daily numbers. I (and others) have noted in the past that there are some quirks that occur and the MOE's may not mean what you think they mean.

In any case I believe that Rasmussen will begin releasing the same set from Jun1-30 this week.
Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
AuH2O
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4246


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2004, 10:46:40 pm »
Ignore

I wonder if anyone will take bets on any of VA, NC, or SC going Dem in 2008.... I guess it would be hard to remember it. I'll put up 2 grand easy...
Logged

don't forget to remember, the devil's got pills in his eyes

look, laugh, but don't touch... cut you down to size
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35432
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2004, 07:38:41 am »
Ignore

I wonder if anyone will take bets on any of VA, NC, or SC going Dem in 2008.... I guess it would be hard to remember it. I'll put up 2 grand easy...

Depends on who the candidates are.
Logged
Akno21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9138
View Profile
« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2004, 10:44:24 am »
Ignore

Are there any polls on Maryland. I think we are solidly Democratic, but we did elect Ehrlich.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2004, 10:45:05 am by Akno21 »Logged

ATFFL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5774
View Profile
« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2004, 10:49:00 am »
Ignore

Are there any polls on Maryland. I think we are solidly Democratic, but we did elect Ehrlich.

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/md/md.htm

Not a whole lot of data, but the state is not likely to be in play.
Logged
Akno21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9138
View Profile
« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2004, 10:53:08 am »
Ignore

Are there any polls on Maryland. I think we are solidly Democratic, but we did elect Ehrlich.

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/md/md.htm

Not a whole lot of data, but the state is not likely to be in play.

Thanks.
Good, it's solid Kerry. There was a poll in March that had MD only +5 for Kerry.
Logged

Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3698


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2004, 11:35:12 am »
Ignore

Rasmussen will indeed be spewing more garbage out all this week.

Their first state poll, compiled from the June robo-tracker:


California:
Kerry 52% Bush 38%
« Last Edit: July 05, 2004, 11:35:30 am by Gov. NickG »Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2004, 08:31:14 pm »
Ignore

Rasmussen will indeed be spewing more garbage out all this week.

Their first state poll, compiled from the June robo-tracker:


California:
Kerry 52% Bush 38%


In the bizarre "we are waaay through the looking glass" world of the Rasmussen Robo Tracks, Bush losing 6% in Califiornia (now down 14% versus down 8% in May) is actually good news for the Bush people (if you ACTUALLY BELIEVE these Robo tracks)

Since this data from California is a subset of his national tracking poll, we know that taken together, all the state polls add up to the sum of his national track.

In May, Kerry won all 4 weeks of the poll:

May 27 44.9 45.3 K+0.4
May 20 44.3 44.8 K+0.5
May 13 45.6 46.0 K+0.4
May 6 44.1 45.9 K+1.8

But California is so big it is just about 10% of the nation, so if Bush lost California by 8% in May, he must have been tied in the rest of the nation to end up with a 0.75% loss nationally.

By contrast in June, the weekly tracks showed:

July 1 45.6 45.5 B+0.1
June 24 45.2 46.2 K+1.0
June 17 45.6 46.0 K+0.4
June 10 45.9 44.6 B+1.3
June 3 45.4 44.1 B+1.3

Lets call it Bush +0.2% for the month

Basically dead even, BUT since Bush lost california bigger than in June and improved 0.95% nationally.. he must have won the rest of the nation by 2.0% or so... which means in states other than California, Bush will show an average inprovement of 2% or so in the state by state Rasmussen Robo polls. Smiley

Of course this assumes the robo track has any value of any kind.

One thing the above anyalsis proves beyond a shadow of a doubt is that I crunch waaay to many numbers and should go get a beer before my brain explodes Smiley




« Last Edit: July 05, 2004, 11:34:34 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
millwx
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 402


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2004, 08:38:04 pm »
Ignore

Of course this assumes the robo track has any value of any kind.
And, of course, it assumes no additional polarization in any other pro-Bush states... esp. large ones, like Texas... which would balance out this CA effect.  After all, in Rasmussen's members-only weekly Florida tracking, Kerry has taken a sizable lead during June.  So, that's at least one battleground state where Rasmussen doesn't have Bush moving up.  We'll know more when his robo-polls of the other states come out this week.
Logged

The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2004, 11:21:21 pm »
Ignore

These robo-tracks are pretty useless IMHO.

The "zero sum" effect is a bit strange.

We know that all his June state robo-tracks add up to a dead heat,as they are the parts that make up the National track whole.

The "changes" from state to state are random noise.

In reality you will almost never gain 4% in state X, while at the same time losing 4% in State Y.

If a candidate gains 5%, the states all move +/- 5%.  It might be 3% or it might be 7%, but the "tide" goes in the same direction regardless of where you are.

There are ALWAYS exceptions (WV in 2000 for example) but the tide goes the same way 99% of the time.

The "Robo Track" state polls are random Noise IMHO.

« Last Edit: July 05, 2004, 11:22:24 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Smash255
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14286


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2004, 12:47:19 am »
Ignore

These robo-tracks are pretty useless IMHO.

The "zero sum" effect is a bit strange.

We know that all his June state robo-tracks add up to a dead heat,as they are the parts that make up the National track whole.

The "changes" from state to state are random noise.

In reality you will almost never gain 4% in state X, while at the same time losing 4% in State Y.

If a candidate gains 5%, the states all move +/- 5%.  It might be 3% or it might be 7%, but the "tide" goes in the same direction regardless of where you are.

There are ALWAYS exceptions (WV in 2000 for example) but the tide goes the same way 99% of the time.

The "Robo Track" state polls are random Noise IMHO.



True, but their could be other examples.  For instance (and I'm just using this as an example so its not real) lets say in May Kerry stumped a ton in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Bush stumpped a ton in Florida & Michagin, but in June Kerry stumped heavily in Florida, Bush stumped heavily in Ohio.  In May Ohio  & PA could have an unrealisic high for Kerry and Florida & Michh could have an unrealistic high for Bush because if just rollover effect from the stumping in those states.  PA & Mich may see a change back toward the more normal status (PA in Bush's favor, MI in Kerry's in June because the May stumpinf factor no longer impacts those states.  But Florida could turn to an unrealistic high for Kerry & Ohio could turn to an unrealistic high for Bush in June because the heavy stumping factor.

Lets say the national polls from May to June have very little change, most states may see a small change in either direction within the MOE or statistical range +2 or -2, but others such as these 4 could see rather large changes, especially 2 of them due to the impact a candidate has when they stump heavily in a state during any given period.
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines