New Polls

[Josh/Devilman88]

I don't know if you have these are not.. but these are new... more are coming tomorrow...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm

Overview of what the link says

Tennessee

Bush 49% Kerry 41%

Florida

Kerry 46% Bush 46%

Iowa

Kerry 49% Bush 41%

Arkansas

Bush 48% Kerry 43%

Michigan

Kerry 47% Bush 41%

Oklahoma

Bush 58% Kerry 34%

Maine

Kerry 54% Bush 35%

South Carolina

Bush 49% Kerry 39%

Minnesota

Kerry 48% Bush 43%

Alabama

Bush 57% Kerry 36%

New Jersey

Kerry 51% Bush 39%

Virginia

Bush 47% Kerry 45%

Pennsylvania

Bush 45% Kerry 44%

North Carolina

Bush 48% Kerry 44%

Oregon

Bush 46% Kerry 45%

Missouri

Bush 44% Kerry 43%

Georgia

Bush 51% Kerry 39%

Ohio

Bush 46% Kerry 44%

California

Kerry 49% Bush 41%

Texas

Bush 55% Kerry 38%

Illinois

Kerry 54% Bush 38%

New York

Kerry 57% Bush 34%

New Hampshire:

Kerry 47% Bush 45%

West Virginia:

Bush 46% Kerry 41%

Colorado:

Bush 49% Kerry 44%

Washington

Kerry 50% Bush 44%

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

These are not new polls...they are the month long polls from May that Rasmussen put together as part of their daily robo-track.

But maybe we'll be seeing the June results next week.

[Gustaf]

Those polls are interesting, even if they're not super-reliable...it looks reasonable to me as well. Most of it can be explained by different factors. The interesting thing is whether the Atlantic South, which most people agree has been trending Dem, will actually be a bit of a battleground as soon as this election? Since both Virginia and the Carolinas are looking a lot closer. I don't actually think they'll be winnable for Kerry in a close race this election, but maybe they will as soon as in the 2008 election. And that's a lot of EVs. California on the other hand seems to be heading the other way right now...as is thr rustbelt I suspect.

[??????????]

Everything on that list from Alabama down is over two months old.

[muon2]

The list is mostly from May1-31 based on reanalyzing the daily numbers. I (and others) have noted in the past that there are some quirks that occur and the MOE's may not mean what you think they mean.

In any case I believe that Rasmussen will begin releasing the same set from Jun1-30 this week.

[AuH2O]

I wonder if anyone will take bets on any of VA, NC, or SC going Dem in 2008.... I guess it would be hard to remember it. I'll put up 2 grand easy...

[© Tweed the Younger]

I wonder if anyone will take bets on any of VA, NC, or SC going Dem in 2008.... I guess it would be hard to remember it. I'll put up 2 grand easy...

Depends on who the candidates are.

[Akno21]

Are there any polls on Maryland. I think we are solidly Democratic, but we did elect Ehrlich.

[ATFFL]

Are there any polls on Maryland. I think we are solidly Democratic, but we did elect Ehrlich.

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/md/md.htm

Not a whole lot of data, but the state is not likely to be in play.

[Akno21]

Are there any polls on Maryland. I think we are solidly Democratic, but we did elect Ehrlich.

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/md/md.htm

Not a whole lot of data, but the state is not likely to be in play.

Thanks.
Good, it's solid Kerry. There was a poll in March that had MD only +5 for Kerry.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Rasmussen will indeed be spewing more garbage out all this week.

Their first state poll, compiled from the June robo-tracker:


California:
Kerry 52% Bush 38%

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen will indeed be spewing more garbage out all this week.

Their first state poll, compiled from the June robo-tracker:


California:
Kerry 52% Bush 38%

In the bizarre "we are waaay through the looking glass" world of the Rasmussen Robo Tracks, Bush losing 6% in Califiornia (now down 14% versus down 8% in May) is actually good news for the Bush people (if you ACTUALLY BELIEVE these Robo tracks)

Since this data from California is a subset of his national tracking poll, we know that taken together, all the state polls add up to the sum of his national track.

In May, Kerry won all 4 weeks of the poll:

May 27 44.9 45.3 K+0.4
May 20 44.3 44.8 K+0.5
May 13 45.6 46.0 K+0.4
May 6 44.1 45.9 K+1.8

But California is so big it is just about 10% of the nation, so if Bush lost California by 8% in May, he must have been tied in the rest of the nation to end up with a 0.75% loss nationally.

By contrast in June, the weekly tracks showed:

July 1 45.6 45.5 B+0.1
June 24 45.2 46.2 K+1.0
June 17 45.6 46.0 K+0.4
June 10 45.9 44.6 B+1.3
June 3 45.4 44.1 B+1.3

Lets call it Bush +0.2% for the month

Basically dead even, BUT since Bush lost california bigger than in June and improved 0.95% nationally.. he must have won the rest of the nation by 2.0% or so... which means in states other than California, Bush will show an average inprovement of 2% or so in the state by state Rasmussen Robo polls.

Of course this assumes the robo track has any value of any kind.

One thing the above anyalsis proves beyond a shadow of a doubt is that I crunch waaay to many numbers and should go get a beer before my brain explodes

[millwx]

Of course this assumes the robo track has any value of any kind.

And, of course, it assumes no additional polarization in any other pro-Bush states... esp. large ones, like Texas... which would balance out this CA effect.  After all, in Rasmussen's members-only weekly Florida tracking, Kerry has taken a sizable lead during June.  So, that's at least one battleground state where Rasmussen doesn't have Bush moving up.  We'll know more when his robo-polls of the other states come out this week.

[The Vorlon]

These robo-tracks are pretty useless IMHO.

The "zero sum" effect is a bit strange.

We know that all his June state robo-tracks add up to a dead heat,as they are the parts that make up the National track whole.

The "changes" from state to state are random noise.

In reality you will almost never gain 4% in state X, while at the same time losing 4% in State Y.

If a candidate gains 5%, the states all move +/- 5%.  It might be 3% or it might be 7%, but the "tide" goes in the same direction regardless of where you are.

There are ALWAYS exceptions (WV in 2000 for example) but the tide goes the same way 99% of the time.

The "Robo Track" state polls are random Noise IMHO.

[Smash255]

These robo-tracks are pretty useless IMHO.

The "zero sum" effect is a bit strange.

We know that all his June state robo-tracks add up to a dead heat,as they are the parts that make up the National track whole.

The "changes" from state to state are random noise.

In reality you will almost never gain 4% in state X, while at the same time losing 4% in State Y.

If a candidate gains 5%, the states all move +/- 5%.  It might be 3% or it might be 7%, but the "tide" goes in the same direction regardless of where you are.

There are ALWAYS exceptions (WV in 2000 for example) but the tide goes the same way 99% of the time.

The "Robo Track" state polls are random Noise IMHO.

True, but their could be other examples.  For instance (and I'm just using this as an example so its not real) lets say in May Kerry stumped a ton in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Bush stumpped a ton in Florida & Michagin, but in June Kerry stumped heavily in Florida, Bush stumped heavily in Ohio.  In May Ohio  & PA could have an unrealisic high for Kerry and Florida & Michh could have an unrealistic high for Bush because if just rollover effect from the stumping in those states.  PA & Mich may see a change back toward the more normal status (PA in Bush's favor, MI in Kerry's in June because the May stumpinf factor no longer impacts those states.  But Florida could turn to an unrealistic high for Kerry & Ohio could turn to an unrealistic high for Bush in June because the heavy stumping factor.

Lets say the national polls from May to June have very little change, most states may see a small change in either direction within the MOE or statistical range +2 or -2, but others such as these 4 could see rather large changes, especially 2 of them due to the impact a candidate has when they stump heavily in a state during any given period.