Rasmussen will indeed be spewing more garbage out all this week.
Their first state poll, compiled from the June robo-tracker:
California:
Kerry 52% Bush 38%
In the bizarre "we are waaay through the looking glass" world of the Rasmussen Robo Tracks, Bush losing 6% in Califiornia (now down 14% versus down 8% in May) is actually good news for the Bush people (if you ACTUALLY BELIEVE these Robo tracks)
Since this data from California is a subset of his national tracking poll, we know that taken together, all the state polls add up to the sum of his national track.
In May, Kerry won all 4 weeks of the poll:
May 27 44.9 45.3 K+0.4
May 20 44.3 44.8 K+0.5
May 13 45.6 46.0 K+0.4
May 6 44.1 45.9 K+1.8
But California is so big it is just about 10% of the nation, so if Bush lost California by 8% in May, he must have been tied in the rest of the nation to end up with a 0.75% loss nationally.
By contrast in June, the weekly tracks showed:
July 1 45.6 45.5 B+0.1
June 24 45.2 46.2 K+1.0
June 17 45.6 46.0 K+0.4
June 10 45.9 44.6 B+1.3
June 3 45.4 44.1 B+1.3
Lets call it Bush +0.2% for the month
Basically dead even, BUT since Bush lost california bigger than in June and improved 0.95% nationally.. he must have won the rest of the nation by 2.0% or so... which means in states other than California, Bush will show an average inprovement of 2% or so in the state by state Rasmussen Robo polls.
Of course this assumes the robo track has any value of any kind.
One thing the above anyalsis proves beyond a shadow of a doubt is that I crunch waaay to many numbers and should go get a beer before my brain explodes
